Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction

Arsenal
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Chelsea
Emirates Stadium, London· C. Kavanagh 06/09/2026
ArsenalArsenal
2-1
Finished
ChelseaChelsea

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.88
SignalSTRONGModel65%RiskMediumGap+14.2%
Arsenal Rest
5 days
Chelsea Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.70
X
26%3.80
2
14%4.95
Double Chance
1X
86%1.18
X2
40%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%1.70
No
35%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 1.14 = 3.17
Over 1.5
82%1.24
Over 2.5
59%1.77
Over 3.5
36%2.80
Under 1.5
18%3.92
Under 2.5
41%2.08
Under 3.5
64%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.1 = 9.7
Over 8.5
63%1.52
Over 9.5
51%1.85
Over 10.5
38%2.30
Under 8.5
37%2.38
Under 9.5
49%1.89
Under 10.5
62%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.4 = 3.9
Over 3.5
56%1.38
Over 4.5
36%1.81
Under 3.5
44%2.80
Under 4.5
64%1.88

Match Events

2'Morgan RogersAssist: Jorrel Hato
13'Goal cancelledRiccardo Calafiori
14'João PedroTime wasting
25'Kai HavertzAssist: Declan Rice
45'Cole PalmerFoul
50'Martin OdegaardAssist: Christos Tzolis
58'Christos TzolisDissent
58'Maxence LacroixFoul
60'Jorrel Hato INPep Chavarria out
60'Romeo Lavia INMalo Gusto out
67'Riccardo Calafiori INPiero Hincapié out
67'Myles Lewis-Skelly INMartín Zubimendi out
77'Martin Odegaard INMikel Merino out
78'Kai Havertz INViktor Gyökeres out
81'Pedro Neto INEstêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves out
83'Morgan RogersArgument
87'Morgan Rogers INDanny Welbeck out
90'Bukayo Saka INNoni Madueke out
90+5'Mikel MerinoTime wasting

Lineups

Arsenal
4-2-3-1Coach: Mikel Arteta
Chelsea
3-4-2-1Coach: Xabi Alonso
David Raya1D. RayaDavid Raya
B. White4B. WhiteB. White
E. Konsa15E. KonsaE. Konsa
Gabriel Magalhães6G. MagalhãesGabriel Magalhães
R. Calafiori33R. CalafioriR. Calafiori
D. Rice41D. RiceD. Rice
M. Lewis-Skelly49M. Lewis-SkellyM. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka7B. SakaB. Saka
M. Ødegaard8M. ØdegaardM. Ødegaard
C. Tzolis17C. TzolisC. Tzolis
K. Havertz29K. HavertzK. Havertz
E. Martínez1E. MartínezE. Martínez
Joshua Kofi Acheampong34J. Kofi AcheampongJoshua Kofi Acheampong
M. Lacroix5M. LacroixM. Lacroix
W. Fofana3W. FofanaW. Fofana
Pedro Neto7P. NetoPedro Neto
R. Lavia45R. LaviaR. Lavia
R. James24R. JamesR. James
J. Hato21J. HatoJ. Hato
C. Palmer10C. PalmerC. Palmer
M. Rogers17M. RogersM. Rogers
João Pedro9J. PedroJoão Pedro

Arsenal Substitutes

13KepaG
5P. HincapiéD
10E. EzeM
23Mikel MerinoM
36Martín ZubimendiM
39Bruno GuimarãesM
56M. DowmanM
14V. GyökeresF
20N. MaduekeF

Chelsea Substitutes

41EstêvãoF
18D. WelbeckF
4V. BarcoM
23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
29Pep ChavarríaD
11J. Bynoe-GittensF
27M. GustoD
6L. ColwillD
39M. PendersG

Match Stats

ArsenalChelsea
55%Ball Possession45%
5Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards4
16Total Shots13
9Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal6
13Shots Inside Box5
3Shots Outside Box8
6Blocked Shots2
13Fouls16
3Offsides0
4Goalkeeper Saves8
457Total Passes379
385Passes Accurate309
16Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

ArsenalArsenal
ChelseaChelsea
2035Elo Rating 1843
1.75Attack 3.05
2.81Defense 0.89
100%Hit Rate 54%
16.0Shots per Game 15.2
6.1Shots on Target 6.4
4.9Corners per Game 6.2
1.5Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+192 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.17 goals
📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ArsenalArsenal
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.5 in first half)
ChelseaChelsea
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Arsenal 83%Draw 17%0% Chelsea
2.48Avg Goals
63%BTTS Rate
46%Over 2.5

Recent Form

ArsenalArsenal
4W0D1L
31/08/2026
Aston VillaArsenal
01
W
21/08/2026
ArsenalCoventry
30
W
16/08/2026
ArsenalManchester City
30
W
12/08/2026
ArsenalComo
4131
W
09/08/2026
ArsenalBorussia Dortmund
23
L
ChelseaChelsea
4W1D0L
30/08/2026
ChelseaBrighton
43
W
27/08/2026
ChelseaLuton
20
W
24/08/2026
FulhamChelsea
23
W
15/08/2026
ChelseaReal Sociedad
31
W
09/08/2026
Johor Darul Takzim FCChelsea
33
D

Referee Profile

C. Kavanagh · 98 matches analysed

4.1Avg Yellows
4.2Avg Cards
21.9Avg Fouls
Stricter than 46% of referees analysed

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal44008:1+712WWWW
2Manchester CityManchester City44008:2+612WWWW
3LeedsLeeds42207:3+48WDDW
4Hull CityHull City42205:2+38DDWW
5BrightonBrighton421113:5+87WDLW
6ChelseaChelsea421110:9+17DLWW
7BrentfordBrentford41307:4+36DDDW
8LiverpoolLiverpool41306:4+26DWDD
9EvertonEverton41305:3+26DDDW
10IpswichIpswich42027:10-36WLLW
11Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest41214:405WDDL
12NewcastleNewcastle41217:8-15LDWD
13Manchester UnitedManchester United41127:704LDWL
14SunderlandSunderland41123:5-24LDWL
15BournemouthBournemouth40316:7-13DDDL
16Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41036:11-53LWLL
17TottenhamTottenham40220:5-52DDLL
18FulhamFulham40134:7-31DLLL
19Aston VillaAston Villa40131:7-61LDLL
20CoventryCoventry40040:10-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal48:112
2Manchester CityManchester City48:212
3LeedsLeeds47:38
4Hull CityHull City45:28
5BrightonBrighton413:57
6ChelseaChelsea410:97
7BrentfordBrentford47:46
8LiverpoolLiverpool46:46
9EvertonEverton45:36
10IpswichIpswich47:106
11Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest44:45
12NewcastleNewcastle47:85
13Manchester UnitedManchester United47:74
14SunderlandSunderland43:54
15BournemouthBournemouth46:73
16Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace46:113
17TottenhamTottenham40:52
18FulhamFulham44:71
19Aston VillaAston Villa41:71
20CoventryCoventry40:100
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction

This Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Chelsea carries extra rivalry weight, and our AI model factors that context in alongside team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Premier League

ScorePredicts covers England football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Arsenal and Chelsea have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.48 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.