Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC Prediction

Estádio dos Aflitos, Recife·Lucas Casagrande, Brazil 10/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
77%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.33
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+1.9%
Nautico Recife Rest
9 days
Fortaleza EC Rest
3 days

Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC: result, form and history

Fortaleza EC beat Nautico Recife 1-0 in the Serie B on 9 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%2.30
X
24%3.06
2
23%3.20
Double Chance
1X
77%1.33
X2
47%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.92
No
49%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.57 + 0.86 = 2.43
Over 1.5
72%1.40
Over 2.5
49%2.30
Over 3.5
25%4.33
Under 1.5
28%2.75
Under 2.5
51%1.60
Under 3.5
75%1.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.5 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.48
Over 9.5
56%1.85
Over 10.5
47%2.29
Under 8.5
34%2.46
Under 9.5
44%1.88
Under 10.5
53%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.2
Over 3.5
57%-
Over 4.5
38%1.37
Under 3.5
43%-
Under 4.5
62%2.80

Match Events

36'E. BritezFoul
39'Luiz FernandoUnsportsmanlike conduct
39'Leonai SouzaUnsportsmanlike conduct
44'Mateus SilvaOG
46'Vitinho INT. Pochettino out
46'J. B. Miritello INLucas Crispim out
52'RodriguinhoSerious foul
60'Igor Fernandes INYuri out
62'Luiz Fernando INKayke out
64'Leonai Souza INRamon out
65'Derek INJuninho out
67'KaykeDelay of game
76'Mauricio JuniorUnsportsmanlike conduct
80'Mauricio Junior ING. Fuentes out
80'Betao INWanderson out
80'Wenderson INRosa out
85'Mateus SilvaFoul
90'Lucas Sasha INRyan out
90+5'JuninhoFoul
90+6'J. B. MiritelloUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Nautico Recife
4-2-3-1Coach: Anjos Helio dos
Fortaleza EC
5-4-1Coach: Carpini Thiago
Avg rating6.90
Avg rating6.85
MurielC6.91Muriel
Reginaldo6.393Reginaldo
Mateus Silva6.925M. Silva
Betão6.93Betão
Igor Fernandes6.923I. Fernandes
Leonai6.319Leonai
Wenderson8.78Wenderson
Vinícius6.67Vinícius
Dodô8.910Dodô
Todinho6.529Todinho
Derek Freitas6.572D. Freitas
João Ricardo10.01J. Ricardo
Rodriguinho5.975Rodriguinho
Emanuel BrítezC7.62E. Brítez
Luan Freitas7.04L. Freitas
Lucas Gazal6.93L. Gazal
Maurício Júnior6.713M. Júnior
Vitinho6.711Vitinho
Lucas Sasha6.788L. Sasha
Rodrigo Santos6.229R. Santos
Luiz Fernando6.732L. Fernando
Juan Miritello6.39J. Miritello

Nautico Recife Substitutes

6Yuri60'for Igor Fernandes6.3
40Ramon64'for Leonai Souza6.9
77Juninho65'for Derek90+5'6.7
55Gastón Guruceaga
14Matheus Ribeiro
2Arnaldo
34Wanderson80'for Betao6.9
5Auremir
30Felipe Cardoso
41Samuel
18Halan
31Rosa80'replaced by Wenderson6.2

Fortaleza EC Substitutes

10Lucas Crispim46'for J. B. Miritello6.7
7Tomás Pochettino46'for Vitinho6.7
99Kayke62'for Luiz Fernando67'6.2
25Vinicius Silvestre
22Maílton
33Kauã Rocha
18Gabriel Fuentes80'for Mauricio Junior6.5
77Paulo Baya
31Welliton
8Ronald
38Lucca Prior
37Ryan Gustavo90'for Lucas Sasha

Match Stats

Nautico RecifeFortaleza EC
73%Ball Possession27%
10Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards2
31Total Shots4
10Shots on Goal1
13Shots off Goal2
17Shots Inside Box3
14Shots Outside Box1
8Blocked Shots1
6Fouls16
3Offsides6
1Goalkeeper Saves9
506Total Passes192
464Passes Accurate130
92%Pass Accuracy68%

Team Comparison

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
1521Elo Rating 1702
0.46Attack 1.11
1.11Defense 2.21
19%Hit Rate 41%
11.5Shots per Game 12.3
2.9Shots on Target 3.6
4.0Corners per Game 4.5
2.8Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Recent Form

Nautico RecifeNautico Recife
6W1D3L
31/05/2026
Sport RecifeNautico Recife
20
L
23/05/2026
Nautico RecifeCuiaba
10
W
16/05/2026
Operario-PRNautico Recife
26
W
10/05/2026
Nautico RecifeAmerica Mineiro
40
W
02/05/2026
Botafogo SPNautico Recife
11
D
28/04/2026
Athletic ClubNautico Recife
01
W
18/04/2026
Nautico RecifeSão Bernardo
03
L
12/04/2026
CearaNautico Recife
10
L
04/04/2026
Nautico RecifePonte Preta
10
W
02/04/2026
Atletico GoianienseNautico Recife
12
W
Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC
3W2D5L
06/06/2026
VitoriaFortaleza EC
21
L
03/06/2026
Fortaleza ECVitoria
12
L
30/05/2026
Athletic ClubFortaleza EC
10
L
28/05/2026
Sport RecifeFortaleza EC
02
W
23/05/2026
Fortaleza ECLondrina
30
W
21/05/2026
Fortaleza ECSport Recife
12
L
17/05/2026
CearaFortaleza EC
21
L
15/05/2026
CRBFortaleza EC
00
D
10/05/2026
AvaiFortaleza EC
00
D
03/05/2026
Fortaleza ECGoias
41
W

Referee Profile

Lucas Casagrande71 matches

4.58Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.24Red cards per match
27.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Lucas Casagrande4.58
Other referees5.07

4.58 cards a match, 0.49 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.07).

Cards come from 55 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino382110767:32+3573WWWWD
2JuventudeJuventude382011751:26+2571WWDWD
3Vila NovaVila Nova381991053:39+1466LWDLD
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC381714745:33+1265WLDDW
5CriciumaCriciuma381881238:32+662LLWLW
6Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense381613946:35+1161WWDLD
7CRBCRB381781358:52+659DWLWL
8GoiasGoias381771439:44-558LWWWD
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3815131053:42+1158WLDWL
10Operario-PROperario-PR381691351:50+157WWLWL
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3814111354:44+1053DLWWL
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP381491545:41+451LWDWW
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3811151246:46048DLWLD
14CuiabaCuiaba3811141334:33+147LLLLL
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3812101641:51-1046LLWLD
16CearaCeara3811111639:48-944DLLLD
17AvaiAvai381271937:47-1043WWLLD
18LondrinaLondrina38982147:59-1235WLLLW
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro38852527:57-3029LWWWW
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta38362921:81-6015LLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1NovorizontinoNovorizontino3867:3273
2JuventudeJuventude3851:2671
3Vila NovaVila Nova3853:3966
4Fortaleza ECFortaleza EC3845:3365
5CriciumaCriciuma3838:3262
6Atletico GoianienseAtletico Goianiense3846:3561
7CRBCRB3858:5259
8GoiasGoias3839:4458
9Sport RecifeSport Recife3853:4258
10Operario-PROperario-PR3851:5057
11São BernardoSão Bernardo3854:4453
12Botafogo SPBotafogo SP3845:4151
13Athletic ClubAthletic Club3846:4648
14CuiabaCuiaba3834:3347
15Nautico RecifeNautico Recife3841:5146
16CearaCeara3839:4844
17AvaiAvai3837:4743
18LondrinaLondrina3847:5935
19America MineiroAmerica Mineiro3827:5729
20Ponte PretaPonte Preta3821:8115
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About the Nautico Recife vs Fortaleza EC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Nautico Recife and Fortaleza EC in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Fortaleza EC are 4th and Nautico Recife 15th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: Nautico Recife 41-51, Fortaleza EC 45-33. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Nautico Recife and Fortaleza EC have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.