San Marino vs Albania Prediction

San Marino
0-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Albania
San Marino Stadium, Serravalle·Mihaly Kapraly 29/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
73%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.19
SignalGOODModel74%SurpriseMediumGap-11.3%
San Marino Rest
3 days
Albania Rest
3 days

San Marino vs Albania: result, form and history

Albania beat San Marino 3-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 29 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Mihaly Kapraly averages 3.59 cards a game, 0.96 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
2%41.00
X
5%14.50
2
93%1.04
Double Chance
1X
7%11.00
X2
98%1.01
Both Teams to Score
Yes
27%4.20
No
73%1.19
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.25 + 3.18 = 3.43
Over 1.5
83%1.08
Over 2.5
66%1.37
Over 3.5
47%2.01
Under 1.5
17%5.97
Under 2.5
34%2.83
Under 3.5
53%1.79
Corners
Projected Corners: 2.1 + 6.1 = 8.2
Over 8.5
54%1.60
Over 9.5
43%2.02
Over 10.5
31%2.56
Under 8.5
46%2.17
Under 9.5
57%1.73
Under 10.5
69%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.5 + 1.4 = 3.8
Over 3.5
53%1.83
Over 4.5
34%-
Under 3.5
47%1.91
Under 4.5
66%-

Match Events

21'Anis·MehmetiAssist: Rey Manaj
27'Myrto Uzuni
34'Kristjan AsllaniFoul
39'Nicola NanniFoul
45'Berat Djimsiti INMarash Kumbulla out
60'Lorenzo·Capicchioni INC. Meloni out
60'Michele Cevoli INF. Fabbri out
60'Lorenzo Lazzari INBalda Enea Della out
65'Rey Manaj
66'Ernest Muci INArber Hoxha out
66'Rey Manaj INCristian Shpendi out
74'Samuel·Pancotti INS. Zannoni out
74'Juljan Shehu INKlevi Qefalija out
78'Gabriel Capicchioni INNicholas Giacopetti out
80'Anis·Mehmeti INLuis Hasa out

Lineups

San Marino
4-4-2Coach: R. Cevoli
Albania
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Maran
Avg rating5.89
Avg rating7.11
11E. Colombo
G. Benvenuti6.02G. Benvenuti
M. Cevoli6.15M. Cevoli
D. Rossi6.46D. Rossi
S. Giocondi5.53S. Giocondi
M. Mularoni5.822M. Mularoni
L. Capicchioni5.78L. Capicchioni
L. Lazzari5.221L. Lazzari
S. Pancotti5.919S. Pancotti
N. Nanni5.79N. Nanni
G. Capicchioni6.37G. Capicchioni
A. Sherri6.712A. Sherri
22S. Sina
A. Ismajli7.318A. Ismajli
B. Djimsiti6.96B. Djimsiti
M. Mitaj7.03M. Mitaj
J. Shehu6.916J. Shehu
K. Asllani7.28K. Asllani
M. Uzuni8.211M. Uzuni
E. Muçi6.610E. Muçi
A. Mehmeti8.29A. Mehmeti
R. Manaj8.57R. Manaj

San Marino Substitutes

15M. Pasolini
11N. Giacopetti78'for Gabriel Capicchioni6.3
12A. Tosi
17G. Bugli
10S. Zannoni74'replaced by Samuel·Pancotti
14Fausto Marino Salicioni Ortiz
16C. Meloni60'replaced by Lorenzo·Capicchioni
20P. Marinucci
4F. Fabbri60'replaced by Michele Cevoli
18Balda Enea Della60'replaced by Lorenzo Lazzari
13P. Amici
23M. De Angelis

Albania Substitutes

19M. Daku
13L. Hasa80'for Anis·Mehmeti6.6
21A. Hoxha66'for Ernest Muci6.6
4E. Hysaj
15M. Kumbulla45'for Berat Djimsiti6.8
22S. Pilios
5K. Qefalija74'for Juljan Shehu6.6
20Y. Ramadani
14C. Shpendi66'for Rey Manaj6.3
1E. Berisha
17T. Seferi
23M. Dajsinani

Match Stats

San MarinoAlbania
28%Ball Possession72%
5Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards1
6Total Shots14
1Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal4
3Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots2
6Fouls14
1Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves1
248Total Passes655
170Passes Accurate591
14Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

San MarinoSan Marino
AlbaniaAlbania
1059Elo Rating 1534
0.41Attack 1.82
0.00Defense 1.99
0%Hit Rate 63%
6.2Shots per Game 17.4
2.1Shots on Target 5.4
2.2Corners per Game 6.3
3.3Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.43 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

San MarinoSan Marino
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AlbaniaAlbania
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

San MarinoSan Marino0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
AlbaniaAlbania2Wins · 100%
3.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

World Cup - Qualification Europe08/09/2021
AlbaniaSan Marino
50
World Cup - Qualification Europe31/03/2021
San MarinoAlbania
02

Recent Form

San MarinoSan Marino
0W0D10L
26/09/2026
San MarinoFinland
07
L
09/06/2026
AzerbaijanSan Marino
21
L
05/06/2026
San MarinoBangladesh
12
L
18/11/2025
RomaniaSan Marino
71
L
12/10/2025
San MarinoCyprus
04
L
09/10/2025
AustriaSan Marino
100
L
06/09/2025
San MarinoBosnia & Herzegovina
06
L
10/06/2025
San MarinoAustria
04
L
07/06/2025
Bosnia & HerzegovinaSan Marino
10
L
24/03/2025
San MarinoRomania
15
L
AlbaniaAlbania
4W2D4L
26/09/2026
AlbaniaBelarus
20
W
06/06/2026
AlbaniaLuxembourg
01
L
03/06/2026
AlbaniaIsrael
01
L
26/03/2026
PolandAlbania
21
L
16/11/2025
AlbaniaEngland
02
L
13/11/2025
AndorraAlbania
01
W
11/10/2025
SerbiaAlbania
01
W
09/09/2025
AlbaniaLatvia
10
W
10/06/2025
LatviaAlbania
11
D
07/06/2025
AlbaniaSerbia
00
D

Referee Profile

Mihaly Kapraly87 matches

3.59Cards per match
3.46Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
26.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mihaly Kapraly3.59
Other referees4.55

3.59 cards a match, 0.96 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.55).

Cards come from 39 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlbaniaAlbania43018:3+59WLWW
2BelarusBelarus42115:2+37WWDL
3FinlandFinland42119:2+77LWDW
4San MarinoSan Marino40041:16-150LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlbaniaAlbania48:39
2BelarusBelarus45:27
3FinlandFinland49:27
4San MarinoSan Marino41:160
Promotion

About the San Marino vs Albania forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

San Marino and Albania in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Albania are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 9 points ahead of San Marino in 4th. League goal record so far: San Marino 1-16, Albania 8-3. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Albania have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. San Marino and Albania have met only 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.