Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction
England · Regular Season - 2
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton·Steve Martin, England 22/08/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.63
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+9.5%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.45
SignalGOODModel56%SurpriseMediumGap+5.1%
Southampton Rest
6 days
Stoke City Rest
7 days
Southampton vs Stoke City: the result in context
Southampton beat Stoke City 3-1 in the Championship on 22 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Southampton have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.4 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
175%1.63
X15%4.00
210%4.90
Double Chance
1X90%1.17
X225%2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%1.70
No49%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 0.9 = 2.80
Over 1.579%1.22
Over 2.554%1.69
Over 3.530%2.71
Under 1.521%4.14
Under 2.546%2.15
Under 3.570%1.45
Corners
Projected Corners: 7 + 3 = 10
Over 8.561%1.34
Over 9.551%1.56
Over 10.541%1.91
Under 8.539%2.98
Under 9.549%2.29
Under 10.559%1.81
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.6 = 4.7
Over 3.562%1.67
Over 4.545%1.73
Under 3.538%2.12
Under 4.555%2.00
Match Events
8'C. LarinAssist: F. Downes
19'J. BreeFoul
26'E. GalbraithAssist: S. Gallagher
38'S. GallagherFoul
50'F. DownesFoul
52'R. ManningFoul
62'E. GalbraithFoul
62'G. Hirst INR. Bozenik out
70'S. Gallagher INS. Ingelsson out
78'C. Larin IND. Mubama out
78'L. Scienza INL. Dobbin out
81'D. Soumare INT. Rigo out
81'E. Bocat INM. Talovierov out
82'M. TalovierovFoul
86'S. IngelssonUnsportsmanlike conduct
89'D. MubamaAssist: F. Azaz
90'T. Fellows INS. Edozie out
90+3'S. IngelssonFoul
90+3'S. IngelssonFoul
90+4'R. Manning(Penalty)
90+5'F. Azaz INR. Akachukwu out
90+5'K. Matsuki INC. Bragg out
Lineups
SouthamptonStoke City
4-2-3-1Coach: Mark RobinsAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Peretz
14J. Bree
15N. Wood
C5J. Stephens
3R. Manning
4F. Downes
27K. Matsuki
18T. Fellows
10F. Azaz
7L. Scienza
9C. Larin
C1V. Johansson
2B. Johnson
16B. Wilmot
23B. Gibson
17E. Bocat
27D. Soumaré
8E. Galbraith
20S. Gallagher
10J. Bae
7S. Thomas
15G. HirstSouthampton Substitutes
11Lewis Dobbin78'for L. Scienza
28Divin Mubama78'for C. Larin89'
26Cameron Bragg90+5'for K. Matsuki
29Romeo Akachukwu90+5'for F. Azaz
23Samuel Edozie90'for T. Fellows
25George Long
17Joshua Quarshie
34Welington
19Cameron Archer
Stoke City Substitutes
9Róbert Boženík62'for G. Hirst
6Svante Ingelsson70'for S. Gallagher86'90+3'90+3'
40Maksym Talovierov81'for E. Bocat82'
19Tomáš Rigo81'for D. Soumare
24Joshua Griffiths
5Luke Graham
52Laurence Giani
42Million Manhoef
4Ben Pearson
Match Stats
SouthamptonStoke City 58%Ball Possession42%
4Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
18Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal6
11Shots Inside Box12
7Shots Outside Box3
7Blocked Shots7
10Fouls21
2Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
474Total Passes329
410Passes Accurate265
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Team Comparison
SouthamptonStoke City1801Elo Rating 1641
1.91Attack 1.44
2.11Defense 2.31
56%Hit Rate 66%
14.4Shots per Game 12.3
5.1Shots on Target 3.2
5.8Corners per Game 5.6
1.3Cards per Game 1.9
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+160 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.8 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Southampton- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.8 in first half)
Stoke City- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.5 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings, all competitions
Southampton3Wins · 60%Draws00%
Stoke City2Wins · 40%
2Wins · 40%2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5
Previous meetings
31/01/2026Stoke CitySouthampton02
23/08/2025SouthamptonStoke City12
29/10/2024SouthamptonStoke City32
27/04/2024SouthamptonStoke City01
03/10/2023Stoke CitySouthampton01
Recent Form
Southampton6W2D2L
16/08/2026
WatfordSouthampton
08/08/2026WatfordSouthampton21
L
ColchesterSouthampton02
W01/08/2026
Preußen MünsterSouthampton
Preußen MünsterSouthampton12
W24/07/2026
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton
Eintracht BraunschweigSouthampton01
W18/07/2026
EastleighSouthampton
EastleighSouthampton13
W12/05/2026Southampton
Middlesbrough
SouthamptonMiddlesbrough2111
W09/05/2026MiddlesbroughSouthampton
MiddlesbroughSouthampton00
D02/05/2026
PrestonSouthampton
PrestonSouthampton13
W28/04/2026Southampton
Ipswich
SouthamptonIpswich22
D25/04/2026
Manchester CitySouthampton
Manchester CitySouthampton21
LStoke City3W2D5L
15/08/2026Stoke City
Swansea
08/08/2026Stoke CitySwansea12
LStoke City
Oldham20
W01/08/2026Stoke City
Valencia
Stoke CityValencia11
D28/07/2026Stoke City
Everton
Stoke CityEverton10
W21/07/2026
ChesterStoke City
ChesterStoke City01
W18/07/2026
CreweStoke City
CreweStoke City11
D10/07/2026Stoke City
SC Braga
Stoke CitySC Braga01
L02/05/2026
Bristol CityStoke City
Bristol CityStoke City20
L25/04/2026Stoke City
Portsmouth
Stoke CityPortsmouth13
L21/04/2026Stoke City
Millwall
Stoke CityMillwall13
LLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28:14 | +14 | 29 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30:19 | +11 | 29 | DLWWD |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:18 | +6 | 29 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:18 | +8 | 28 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 | WDWDW |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22:18 | +4 | 26 | LLWLL |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29:15 | +14 | 24 | LDWWD |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | +6 | 24 | WDLWL |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37:23 | +14 | 23 | LDLLW |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21:19 | +2 | 22 | LWWDW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 22 | LWDWD |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32:24 | +8 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22:23 | -1 | 21 | WLLWL |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27:27 | 0 | 18 | WDLWD |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18:20 | -2 | 18 | DWLLW |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 18 | LLWLD |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 18 | LLWDL |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20:29 | -9 | 17 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13:23 | -10 | 17 | WLLLL |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13:23 | -10 | 15 | DWLLW |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:26 | -11 | 15 | LLLWD |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22:31 | -9 | 10 | LDDLL |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14:30 | -16 | 10 | WLLDL |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13:30 | -17 | 8 | WLLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 28:14 | 29 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 30:19 | 29 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 24:18 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 26:18 | 28 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 23:15 | 28 |
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 22:18 | 26 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 29:15 | 24 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 24:18 | 24 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 37:23 | 23 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 21:19 | 22 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 20:18 | 22 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 32:24 | 21 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 22:23 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 27:27 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 18:20 | 18 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 23:27 | 18 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 16:24 | 18 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 20:29 | 17 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 13:23 | 17 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 13:23 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 15:26 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 22:31 | 10 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 14:30 | 10 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 13:30 | 8 |
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About the Southampton vs Stoke City forecast
The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.
Southampton and Stoke City in the Championship table
In the Championship table, Stoke City are 3rd and Southampton 7th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Southampton 29-15, Stoke City 24-18. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.