Burnley vs West Ham Prediction

Burnley
2-2
Finished
HT 0-1
West Ham
Turf Moor, Burnley·Josh Smith, England 16/08/2026
BurnleyBurnley
2-2
Finished
West HamWest Ham

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.39
SignalHIGHModel36%SurpriseMediumGap+8.1%
Burnley Rest
8 days
West Ham Rest
8 days

Burnley vs West Ham: result, form and history

Burnley and West Ham drew 2-2 in the Championship on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

West Ham have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game. West Ham tend to win more corners, 7.9 a game to 3.9 for Burnley.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%3.22
X
26%3.40
2
41%2.16
Double Chance
1X
60%1.67
X2
67%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.61
No
49%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.17 + 1.27 = 2.44
Over 1.5
70%1.24
Over 2.5
47%1.78
Over 3.5
25%2.90
Under 1.5
30%3.90
Under 2.5
53%2.00
Under 3.5
75%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.5 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.51
Over 9.5
51%1.88
Over 10.5
40%2.40
Under 8.5
42%2.40
Under 9.5
49%1.85
Under 10.5
60%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.2 = 4.2
Over 3.5
55%1.71
Over 4.5
35%2.20
Under 3.5
45%2.11
Under 4.5
65%1.62

Match Events

10'M. KilmanAssist: J. Bowen
33'M. KanteFoul
46'Pablo INJ. Ward-Prowse out
57'U. Raghouber INJ. Laurent out
57'H. Mejbri INZ. Amdouni out
67'T. CastellanosFoul
72'M. Solomon
76'A. Ramsey INA. Broja out
76'B. Humphreys INLucas Pires out
82'J. Bruun Larsen INM. Tresor Ndayishimiye out
83'Z. Flemming(Penalty)
84'M. HermansenUnsportsmanlike conduct
87'O. Scarles INM. Diouf out
89'M. Solomon INJ. Veltman out
90+2'Z. FlemmingAssist: M. Alleyne
90+5'M. DioufFoul

Lineups

Burnley
4-2-3-1Coach: Nicky Hayen
West Ham
4-4-2Coach: Nuno Espirito Santo
Avg rating6.78
Avg rating6.78
Max Weiss6.21M. Weiss
Oliver Sonne6.222O. Sonne
Kyle WalkerC7.02K. Walker
Max Alleyne6.73M. Alleyne
Bashir Humphreys6.96B. Humphreys
Hannibal Mejbri6.728H. Mejbri
Ugo Raghouber6.38U. Raghouber
Marcus Edwards7.210M. Edwards
Aaron Ramsey6.921A. Ramsey
Jacob Bruun Larsen7.27J. Bruun Larsen
Zian Flemming8.219Z. Flemming
Mads Hermansen7.01M. Hermansen
Kyle Walker-Peters6.22K. Walker-Peters
Konstantinos Mavropanos6.915K. Mavropanos
Max Kilman7.33M. Kilman
Oliver Scarles6.930O. Scarles
Jarrod BowenC7.220J. Bowen
Lewis Orford6.961L. Orford
Mohamadou Kanté6.217M. Kanté
Manor Solomon7.610M. Solomon
Pablo Felipe6.319P. Felipe
Valentín Castellanos6.611V. Castellanos

Burnley Substitutes

29Josh Laurent57'for U. Raghouber6.7
11Zeki Amdouni57'for H. Mejbri6.5
13Ben Amos
4Joe Worrall
23Lucas Pires76'for B. Humphreys6.2
20Shurandy Sambo
31Mike Trésor82'for J. Bruun Larsen6.7
17Andreas Hountondji
27Armando Broja76'for A. Ramsey6.9

West Ham Substitutes

8James Ward-Prowse46'for Pablo6.9
23Alphonse Aréola
58Airidas Golambeckis
12El Hadji Malick Diouf87'for O. Scarles90+5'6.2
63Ezra Mayers
34Joël Veltman89'for M. Solomon
40George Earthy
66Joshua Ajala
48Josh Landers

Match Stats

BurnleyWest Ham
46%Ball Possession54%
5Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards4
18Total Shots11
6Shots on Goal2
11Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots6
12Fouls9
0Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves3
397Total Passes462
328Passes Accurate402
83%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

BurnleyBurnley
West HamWest Ham
1585Elo Rating 1772
0.91Attack 2.44
1.34Defense 0.92
0%Hit Rate 31%
11.8Shots per Game 19.5
3.2Shots on Target 8.3
3.9Corners per Game 7.9
1.6Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend63% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

BurnleyBurnley
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
West HamWest Ham
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

BurnleyBurnley0Wins · 0%
Draws338%
West HamWest Ham5Wins · 62%
2.5Avg Goals
63%Both teams scored5 of 8
50%3+ goals4 of 8

Previous meetings

Premier League07/02/2026
BurnleyWest Ham
02
Premier League08/11/2025
West HamBurnley
32
Premier League10/03/2024
West HamBurnley
22
Premier League25/11/2023
BurnleyWest Ham
12
Premier League17/04/2022
West HamBurnley
11
Premier League12/12/2021
BurnleyWest Ham
00
Premier League03/05/2021
BurnleyWest Ham
12
Premier League16/01/2021
West HamBurnley
10

Recent Form

BurnleyBurnley
1W4D5L
08/08/2026
BurnleyNotts County
4131
W
02/08/2026
BurnleyTorino
01
L
29/07/2026
BurnleyEspanyol
22
D
26/07/2026
AjaxBurnley
21
L
16/07/2026
Real Salt LakeBurnley
41
L
12/07/2026
Columbus CrewBurnley
11
D
11/07/2026
FC CincinnatiBurnley
31
L
24/05/2026
BurnleyWolves
11
D
18/05/2026
ArsenalBurnley
10
L
10/05/2026
BurnleyAston Villa
22
D
West HamWest Ham
4W3D3L
08/08/2026
West HamPortsmouth
31
W
01/08/2026
1. FC MagdeburgWest Ham
11
D
26/07/2026
RangersWest Ham
00
D
22/07/2026
StevenageWest Ham
05
W
18/07/2026
SouthendWest Ham
11
D
24/05/2026
West HamLeeds
30
W
17/05/2026
NewcastleWest Ham
31
L
10/05/2026
West HamArsenal
01
L
02/05/2026
BrentfordWest Ham
30
L
25/04/2026
West HamEverton
21
W

Referee Profile

Josh Smith205 matches

3.91Cards per match
3.77Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Josh Smith3.91
Other referees3.86

3.91 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.86).

Cards come from 200 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BirminghamBirmingham1585228:14+1429WWWLW
2MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1585230:19+1129DLWWD
3Stoke CityStoke City1592424:18+629WWWDW
4WolvesWolves1584326:18+828DWWWD
5West BromWest Brom1584323:15+828WDWDW
6SwanseaSwansea1582522:18+426LLWLL
7SouthamptonSouthampton1584329:15+1424LDWWD
8QPRQPR1566324:18+624WDLWL
9West HamWest Ham1565437:23+1423LDLLW
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1564521:19+222LWWDW
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1564520:18+222LWDWD
12NorwichNorwich1570832:24+821WWWWL
13BlackburnBlackburn1563622:23-121WLLWL
14CardiffCardiff1546527:27018WDLWD
15WrexhamWrexham1546518:20-218DWLLW
16MillwallMillwall1553723:27-418LLWLD
17Bristol CityBristol City1553716:24-818LLWDL
18BoltonBolton1552820:29-917LWLLD
19CharltonCharlton1545613:23-1017WLLLL
20WatfordWatford1543813:23-1015DWLLW
21LincolnLincoln1543815:26-1115LLLWD
22BurnleyBurnley1517722:31-910LDDLL
23DerbyDerby1524914:30-1610WLLDL
24PrestonPreston15221113:30-178WLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1BirminghamBirmingham1528:1429
2MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1530:1929
3Stoke CityStoke City1524:1829
4WolvesWolves1526:1828
5West BromWest Brom1523:1528
6SwanseaSwansea1522:1826
7SouthamptonSouthampton1529:1524
8QPRQPR1524:1824
9West HamWest Ham1537:2323
10Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd1521:1922
11PortsmouthPortsmouth1520:1822
12NorwichNorwich1532:2421
13BlackburnBlackburn1522:2321
14CardiffCardiff1527:2718
15WrexhamWrexham1518:2018
16MillwallMillwall1523:2718
17Bristol CityBristol City1516:2418
18BoltonBolton1520:2917
19CharltonCharlton1513:2317
20WatfordWatford1513:2315
21LincolnLincoln1515:2615
22BurnleyBurnley1522:3110
23DerbyDerby1514:3010
24PrestonPreston1513:308
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About the Burnley vs West Ham forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Burnley and West Ham in the Championship table

In the Championship table, West Ham are 9th and Burnley 22nd, 13 points apart. League goal record so far: Burnley 22-31, West Ham 37-23. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.