Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath Prediction

Stenhousemuir
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Arbroath
Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir·K. Clancy 19/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.21
SignalSTRONGModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-1.0%
Stenhousemuir Rest
3 days
Arbroath Rest
7 days

Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath: the result in context

Stenhousemuir beat Arbroath 1-0 in the Championship on 19 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Stenhousemuir had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Arbroath.

Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 1 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.90
X
23%3.15
2
15%3.95
Double Chance
1X
85%1.21
X2
38%1.76
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

34'L. O'Donnell
46'J. Bonnar INA. Winter out
62'S. Mackie
62'L. Hodgkiss ING. Stevenson out
62'L. O'Donnell INE. O'Reilly out
63'R. Molotnikov INR. Dow out
69'A. Shinnie INH. Kargbo out
70'F. Robson INM. Gillies out
72'B. Paterson
78'S. Bright
81'M. McKenna INC. Daly out
83'R. Meechan INC. Penman out
86'C. Penman
90+5'M. Gillies

Team Comparison

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir
ArbroathArbroath
1516Elo Rating 1378
1.22Attack 0.41
1.21Defense 1.28
27%Hit Rate 27%

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+137 Elo

Game State Tendencies

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ArbroathArbroath
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir2Wins · 50%
Draws00%
ArbroathArbroath2Wins · 50%
2.5Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
50%3+ goals2 of 4

Previous meetings

League One12/04/2025
ArbroathStenhousemuir
40
League One22/02/2025
StenhousemuirArbroath
20
League One02/11/2024
ArbroathStenhousemuir
10
League One03/08/2024
StenhousemuirArbroath
21

Recent Form

StenhousemuirStenhousemuir
8W1D1L
15/09/2026
StenhousemuirPartick
10
W
11/09/2026
StenhousemuirHeart Of Midlothian
03
L
04/09/2026
LivingstonStenhousemuir
01
W
29/08/2026
StenhousemuirInverness CT
31
W
22/08/2026
Queen's ParkStenhousemuir
02
W
16/08/2026
StenhousemuirMotherwell
1000
W
08/08/2026
StenhousemuirMorton
20
W
01/08/2026
Raith RoversStenhousemuir
11
D
25/07/2026
StenhousemuirLivingston
3010
W
21/07/2026
PartickStenhousemuir
3252
W
ArbroathArbroath
4W2D4L
12/09/2026
Raith RoversArbroath
40
L
05/09/2026
ArbroathDunfermline
11
D
29/08/2026
ArbroathLivingston
10
W
22/08/2026
MortonArbroath
12
W
08/08/2026
ArbroathInverness CT
00
D
01/08/2026
Ayr UtdArbroath
20
L
25/07/2026
ArbroathStirling Albion
10
W
21/07/2026
ArbroathMontrose
02
L
18/07/2026
Dundee UtdArbroath
30
L
11/07/2026
SpartansArbroath
12
W

Referee Profile

K. Clancy174 matches

4.13Cards per match
3.97Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

K. Clancy4.13
Other referees3.97

4.13 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.97).

Cards come from 114 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Championship 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PartickPartick1484218:7+1128WLWDW
2Raith RoversRaith Rovers1474320:9+1125DWLDW
3DunfermlineDunfermline1467115:7+825DWWWD
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir1472516:16023LLLLD
5LivingstonLivingston1463519:12+721DWWDL
6Inverness CTInverness CT1455418:17+120DLWWL
7Ayr UtdAyr Utd1343614:18-415LWLDW
8ArbroathArbroath1442811:23-1214WLLLL
9MortonMorton1341816:23-713WWWWL
10Queen's ParkQueen's Park1421118:23-157LLLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1PartickPartick1418:728
2Raith RoversRaith Rovers1420:925
3DunfermlineDunfermline1415:725
4StenhousemuirStenhousemuir1416:1623
5LivingstonLivingston1419:1221
6Inverness CTInverness CT1418:1720
7Ayr UtdAyr Utd1314:1815
8ArbroathArbroath1411:2314
9MortonMorton1316:2313
10Queen's ParkQueen's Park148:237
PromotionRelegation

About the Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath forecast

The forecasts for this Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Stenhousemuir and Arbroath in the Championship table

The table shows a wide gap: Stenhousemuir are 4th in the Championship, while Arbroath sit 8th, 9 points behind. League goal record so far: Stenhousemuir 16-16, Arbroath 11-23. The full standings are on the Championship Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.