Stevenage vs Luton Prediction

Stevenage
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Luton
SPORTA Arena, Stevenage 10/09/2026
StevenageStevenage
2-1
Finished
LutonLuton

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.28
SignalHIGHModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+1.5%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.82
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+9.6%
Stevenage Rest
5 days
Luton Rest
5 days

Stevenage vs Luton: result, form and history

Stevenage beat Luton 2-1 in the League One on 10 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.0 goals, and both sides scored in 2 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
31%3.10
X
25%3.40
2
44%2.18
Double Chance
1X
56%1.62
X2
69%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.70
No
43%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.24 + 1.66 = 2.90
Over 1.5
84%1.28
Over 2.5
62%1.88
Over 3.5
35%3.20
Under 1.5
16%3.50
Under 2.5
38%1.88
Under 3.5
65%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.9 = 9.9
Over 8.5
62%1.82
Over 9.5
52%2.27
Over 10.5
40%2.99
Under 8.5
38%1.90
Under 9.5
48%1.57
Under 10.5
60%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.55
Over 4.5
37%2.11
Under 3.5
43%2.20
Under 4.5
63%1.67

Match Events

4'Daniel PhillipsFoul
23'Daniel Kemp
24'Jack WilshereAbusive Language
26'Lewis FreestoneFoul
30'Liam WalshFoul
44'Daniel KempFoul
56'Jordan Roberts INBen Broggio out
58'Jamie Donley INJake Richards out
58'Gideon kadua INKasey Palmer out
66'Callum Marshall INNahki Wells out
70'Josh Magennis
75'Mads Juel AndersenAssist: Kasey Palmer
76'O. Sanderson INSaxon Earley out
76'Josh Magennis INMichael Mellon out
76'Daniel Kemp INJordan Houghton out
80'Saxon EarleyFoul
84'Hakeem Odofin INTudor Mendel-Idowu out
85'Daniel Phillips INMatthew Smith out
90+3'Luther WildinFoul
90+5'Mads Juel AndersenDissent

Lineups

Stevenage
4-4-1-1Coach: A. Revell
Luton
4-1-4-1Coach: J. Wilshere
Avg rating6.45
Avg rating6.35
T. Setford6.01T. Setford
L. James-Wildin6.52L. James-Wildin
T. Vancooten6.415T. Vancooten
C. Piergianni7.05C. Piergianni
L. Freestone5.96L. Freestone
O. Sanderson6.118O. Sanderson
D. Phillips6.28D. Phillips
L. Thompson6.223L. Thompson
J. Roberts6.511J. Roberts
D. Kemp7.410D. Kemp
J. Magennis7.79J. Magennis
Joshua Keeley5.724J. Keeley
H. Odoffin6.52H. Odoffin
M. Andersen7.55M. Andersen
G. Johnston6.16G. Johnston
J. Johnson6.012J. Johnson
L. Walsh7.28L. Walsh
I. Jones5.825I. Jones
J. Donley6.010J. Donley
Daniel Gore6.516D. Gore
G. Kodua6.330G. Kodua
C. Marshall6.39C. Marshall

Stevenage Substitutes

12D. Barden
27B. Broggio56'for Jordan Roberts6.7
16K. Casey
14S. Earley76'for O. Sanderson80'5.9
4J. Houghton76'for Daniel Kemp6.4
28M. Mellon76'for Josh Magennis6.3
24M. Smith85'for Daniel Phillips5.9

Luton Substitutes

17T. Mendel-Idowu84'for Hakeem Odofin6.2
3K. Naismith
45K. Palmer58'for Gideon kadua6.6
7J. Richards58'for Jamie Donley5.9
1J. Shea
21N. Wells66'for Callum Marshall6.7
22H. Fox

Match Stats

StevenageLuton
29%Ball Possession71%
2Corner Kicks4
5Yellow Cards2
9Total Shots10
3Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal6
6Shots Inside Box7
3Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots2
15Fouls10
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves1
255Total Passes608
175Passes Accurate525
10Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

StevenageStevenage
LutonLuton
1608Elo Rating 1668
1.13Attack 2.39
2.20Defense 1.83
54%Hit Rate 83%
12.7Shots per Game 18.0
3.9Shots on Target 6.7
4.7Corners per Game 6.6
1.0Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.9 goals
📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

StevenageStevenage
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LutonLuton
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

StevenageStevenage1Wins · 34%
Draws133%
LutonLuton1Wins · 33%
3.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

League One10/01/2026
LutonStevenage
21
League One04/10/2025
StevenageLuton
20
League Cup10/08/2021
StevenageLuton
3202

Recent Form

StevenageStevenage
4W3D3L
05/09/2026
BarnsleyStevenage
15
W
01/09/2026
PeterboroughStevenage
00
D
29/08/2026
StevenageDoncaster
22
D
25/08/2026
StevenageReading
03
L
22/08/2026
StevenageOxford United
12
L
15/08/2026
Burton AlbionStevenage
11
D
07/08/2026
WycombeStevenage
12
W
01/08/2026
StevenageColchester
10
W
25/07/2026
StevenageMillwall
10
W
22/07/2026
StevenageWest Ham
05
L
LutonLuton
4W3D3L
05/09/2026
LutonLeyton Orient
11
D
02/09/2026
LutonStockport County
20
W
30/08/2026
Mansfield TownLuton
52
L
27/08/2026
ChelseaLuton
20
L
22/08/2026
LutonNotts County
22
D
15/08/2026
ReadingLuton
34
W
08/08/2026
GillinghamLuton
03
W
02/08/2026
LutonGO Ahead Eagles
01
L
25/07/2026
LutonAl Kholood
20
W
18/07/2026
BarnetLuton
22
D

League Table

League One 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HuddersfieldHuddersfield1384127:11+1628WWWWD
2Stockport CountyStockport County1482426:14+1226WLDWW
3Oxford UnitedOxford United1265120:11+923DWDWD
4LutonLuton1372426:20+623WWWWL
5PlymouthPlymouth1472521:19+223DWLLW
6ReadingReading1364325:13+1222DWWLW
7BradfordBradford1364310:8+222LDDWD
8Cambridge UnitedCambridge United1456321:21021LDLDW
9Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday1355322:14+820DDLLW
10LeicesterLeicester1354422:19+319DWLWW
11Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons1346322:20+218WWWLW
12Mansfield TownMansfield Town1253420:18+218LWWDW
13WycombeWycombe1346321:23-218WDDWL
14Leyton OrientLeyton Orient1352619:14+517WLLWD
15Burton AlbionBurton Albion1445518:21-317LWDDL
16StevenageStevenage1244417:13+416DLWLW
17Notts CountyNotts County1235413:14-114WDWLL
18AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon133469:21-1213LDLLL
19BlackpoolBlackpool1233617:21-412DLWLL
20DoncasterDoncaster1333714:22-812LLWLL
21WiganWigan1331911:22-1110WLLLW
22PeterboroughPeterborough1324711:23-1210LDLDW
23BarnsleyBarnsley1223712:22-109DLLLL
24BromleyBromley1323813:33-209LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1HuddersfieldHuddersfield1327:1128
2Stockport CountyStockport County1426:1426
3Oxford UnitedOxford United1220:1123
4LutonLuton1326:2023
5PlymouthPlymouth1421:1923
6ReadingReading1325:1322
7BradfordBradford1310:822
8Cambridge UnitedCambridge United1421:2121
9Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday1322:1420
10LeicesterLeicester1322:1919
11Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons1322:2018
12Mansfield TownMansfield Town1220:1818
13WycombeWycombe1321:2318
14Leyton OrientLeyton Orient1319:1417
15Burton AlbionBurton Albion1418:2117
16StevenageStevenage1217:1316
17Notts CountyNotts County1213:1414
18AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon139:2113
19BlackpoolBlackpool1217:2112
20DoncasterDoncaster1314:2212
21WiganWigan1311:2210
22PeterboroughPeterborough1311:2310
23BarnsleyBarnsley1212:229
24BromleyBromley1313:339
PromotionRelegation

About the Stevenage vs Luton forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Stevenage and Luton in the League One table

In the League One table, Luton are 4th and Stevenage 16th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Stevenage 17-13, Luton 26-20. The full standings are on the League One Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Luton have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.