VPS vs Mariehamn Prediction

VPS
4-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Mariehamn
Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa 04/07/2026
VPSVPS
4-0
Finished
MariehamnMariehamn

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.30
SignalHIGHModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+1.3%
VPS Rest
4 days
Mariehamn Rest
7 days

VPS vs Mariehamn: the result in context

VPS beat Mariehamn 4-0 in the Veikkausliiga on 4 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: VPS had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Mariehamn.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 8 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
78%1.30
X
15%5.00
2
7%8.50
Double Chance
1X
93%1.05
X2
22%3.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.95
No
51%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.08 + 0.78 = 2.86
Over 1.5
77%1.18
Over 2.5
57%1.61
Over 3.5
35%2.50
Under 1.5
23%4.50
Under 2.5
43%2.25
Under 3.5
65%1.49
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

3'L. SmythAssist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
32'O. OgunniyiAssist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
63'A. Stroud INA. Huttunen out
63'L. Andersson INA. Bergvik out
63'M. Hyvonen INV. Widlund out
66'J. Muzinga INO. Keturi out
67'K. Kouassivi-Benissan INA. Raisanen out
67'R. Simpson INM. Niemi out
75'O. Keturi
76'J. Turfkruier INV. Ronnberg out
78'A. Larsson INW. Nunez out
78'J. Heyden INT. Koivisto out
82'P. Lima INA. Kuek out
90'A. KuekAssist: V. Ronnberg

Match Stats

VPSMariehamn
46%Ball Possession54%
3Corner Kicks2
10Total Shots3
4Shots on Goal1
4Shots off Goal1
2Blocked Shots1
6Fouls6
2Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves2
6Free Kicks6

Team Comparison

VPSVPS
MariehamnMariehamn
1560Elo Rating 1482
0.14Attack 1.00
1.40Defense 1.83
14%Hit Rate 17%
9.2Shots per Game 14.1
2.2Shots on Target 2.5
3.7Corners per Game 5.0
1.6Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.85 goals
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

VPSVPS
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MariehamnMariehamn
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

VPSVPS5Wins · 50%
Draws330%
MariehamnMariehamn2Wins · 20%
2.9Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Veikkausliiga02/05/2026
MariehamnVPS
01
Veikkausliiga21/09/2025
MariehamnVPS
21
Veikkausliiga01/08/2025
VPSMariehamn
11
Veikkausliiga14/06/2025
MariehamnVPS
15
Veikkausliiga28/07/2024
VPSMariehamn
21
Veikkausliiga12/06/2024
MariehamnVPS
00
Veikkausliiga03/09/2023
MariehamnVPS
12
Veikkausliiga05/05/2023
VPSMariehamn
21
Veikkausliiga16/10/2022
MariehamnVPS
22
Veikkausliiga09/07/2022
VPSMariehamn
13

Recent Form

VPSVPS
5W3D2L
30/06/2026
VPSInter Turku
23
L
27/06/2026
GnistanVPS
11
D
23/06/2026
VPSAC Oulu
51
W
17/06/2026
SJKVPS
12
W
13/06/2026
VPSKuPS
11
D
10/06/2026
KuPSVPS
4050
W
30/05/2026
Turku PSVPS
10
L
26/05/2026
VPSHaka
40
W
22/05/2026
VPSHJK Helsinki
21
W
18/05/2026
LahtiVPS
11
D
MariehamnMariehamn
1W2D7L
27/06/2026
MariehamnInter Turku
02
L
23/06/2026
MariehamnHJK Helsinki
04
L
18/06/2026
AC OuluMariehamn
21
L
13/06/2026
MariehamnGnistan
03
L
30/05/2026
HJK HelsinkiMariehamn
10
L
26/05/2026
MariehamnLahti
01
L
23/05/2026
FF JaroMariehamn
30
L
16/05/2026
MariehamnKuPS
11
D
13/05/2026
MariehamnPuiU Helsinki
30
W
10/05/2026
LahtiMariehamn
11
D

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026

Veikkausliiga

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1KuPSKuPS22127338:23+1543LLDDW
2Inter TurkuInter Turku22119229:16+1342WWLWL
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki22114736:27+937DWWDW
4GnistanGnistan22106636:29+736WLDLL
5AC OuluAC Oulu22104825:25034DWDWW
6VPSVPS2296729:22+733LLDLL
7LahtiLahti2295826:19+732WLDLW
8Turku PSTurku PS2287728:23+531LLLLD
9IlvesIlves22741134:37-325WDWWW
10SJKSJK22471125:33-819LWWDD
11FF JaroFF Jaro22361318:44-2615DWDDL
12MariehamnMariehamn22351417:43-2614DDLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1KuPSKuPS2238:2343
2Inter TurkuInter Turku2229:1642
3HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki2236:2737
4GnistanGnistan2236:2936
5AC OuluAC Oulu2225:2534
6VPSVPS2229:2233
7LahtiLahti2226:1932
8Turku PSTurku PS2228:2331
9IlvesIlves2234:3725
10SJKSJK2225:3319
11FF JaroFF Jaro2218:4415
12MariehamnMariehamn2217:4314

Champion Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Inter TurkuInter Turku321710543:27+1661WWLWL
2HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki32178766:39+2759DWWDW
3KuPSKuPS321411746:33+1353LLDDW
4AC OuluAC Oulu321461241:40+148DWDWW
5GnistanGnistan3212101052:47+546WLDLL
6VPSVPS321171432:43-1140LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Inter TurkuInter Turku3243:2761
2HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki3266:3959
3KuPSKuPS3246:3353
4AC OuluAC Oulu3241:4048
5GnistanGnistan3252:4746
6VPSVPS3232:4340

Relegration Group

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1LahtiLahti271161035:26+939WLDLW
2IlvesIlves271151145:39+638WDWWW
3Turku PSTurku PS27881129:33-432LLLLD
4SJKSJK27691229:37-827LWWDD
5FF JaroFF Jaro27491422:49-2721DWDDL
6MariehamnMariehamn27471622:49-2719DDLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1LahtiLahti2735:2639
2IlvesIlves2745:3938
3Turku PSTurku PS2729:3332
4SJKSJK2729:3727
5FF JaroFF Jaro2722:4921
6MariehamnMariehamn2722:4919
Relegation

About the VPS vs Mariehamn forecast

The forecasts for this Veikkausliiga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

VPS and Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga table

In the Veikkausliiga table, VPS are 6th and Mariehamn 12th, 19 points apart. League goal record so far: VPS 29-22, Mariehamn 17-43. The full standings are on the Veikkausliiga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.