AEK Larnaca vs Pafos Prediction

AEK Larnaca
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Pafos
AEK Arena, Larnaca·Menelaos Antoniou, Cyprus 13/09/2026
AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca
0-1
Finished
PafosPafos

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.42
SignalHIGHModel53%SurpriseMediumGap+7.3%
AEK Larnaca Rest
7 days
Pafos Rest
6 days

AEK Larnaca vs Pafos: result, form and history

Pafos beat AEK Larnaca 1-0 in the 1. Division on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them. Referee Menelaos Antoniou averages 4.15 cards a game, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%2.60
X
28%3.12
2
20%2.62
Double Chance
1X
80%1.42
X2
48%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.72
No
50%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.38 + 1.12 = 2.50
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
48%1.96
Over 3.5
25%3.28
Under 1.5
27%3.27
Under 2.5
52%1.79
Under 3.5
75%1.27
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

11'D. Quina
33'I. Sunjic
59'K. Pileas INB. Olivan out
59'D. Ivanovic INY. Chacon out
59'J. Repas INK. Mrabti out
60'K. Sema INBiel out
60'Lele INV. Dragomir out
62'V. Dragomir
68'A. Trica INN. Andereggen out
73'N. Ioannou INY. Zague out
76'N. Moumi Ngamaleu INGuga out
77'D. Quina INAnderson Silva out
78'I. Pankov INC. Kyriakou out
90+2'Miramon

Lineups

AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1Coach: Ruben Selles
Pafos
3-4-2-1Coach: Ricardo Sa Pinto
Alberto Paleari92A. Paleari
Jorge Miramón21J. Miramón
Hrvoje Miličević15H. Miličević
Mike Van der Hoorn3M. Van der Hoorn
Kostas Pileas17K. Pileas
Ivan Chavdarov Pankov6I. Chavdarov Pankov
Gus Ledes7G. Ledes
Amor Layouni14A. Layouni
Jan Repas20J. Repas
Đorđe Ivanović9Đ. Ivanović
Atanas Trică19A. Trică
Radosław Majecki99R. Majecki
David Goldar5D. Goldar
David Luiz4D. Luiz
Nikolas Ioannou14N. Ioannou
Bruno7Bruno
Ivan Šunjić26I. Šunjić
Pêpê88Pêpê
Ken Sema12K. Sema
Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu13N. Moumie Ngamaleu
Domingos Quina8D. Quina
Lelê18Lelê

AEK Larnaca Substitutes

5Brian Oliván59'for K. Pileas
10Yerson Chacón59'for D. Ivanovic
28Kerim Mrabti59'for J. Repas
33Nicolas Andereggen68'for A. Trica
51Andreas Paraskevas
99Dimitris Dimitriou
2Petros Ioannou
22Godswill Ekpolo
23Sven Köhler
44Zacharias Adoni
25Chambos Kyriakou78'for I. Pankov
29Giorgos Naoum

Pafos Substitutes

30Vlad Dragomir60'for Lele62'
20Biel60'for K. Sema
2Yoram Zague73'for N. Ioannou
71Michalis Papastylianou
82Petros Petrou
3Samy Mmaee
61Melinos Kais
23Jonatás Noro
6Guga76'for N. Moumi Ngamaleu
60Christos Efzona
33Anderson Silva77'for D. Quina
17Afonso Patrao

Team Comparison

AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca
PafosPafos
1718Elo Rating 1649
2.40Attack 0.89
1.80Defense 1.57
46%Hit Rate 0%
10.2Shots per Game 12.2
4.7Shots on Target 5.7
6.1Corners per Game 5.3
5.0Cards per Game 3.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
PafosPafos
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca2Wins · 20%
Draws550%
PafosPafos3Wins · 30%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

1. Division16/05/2026
AEK LarnacaPafos
22
1. Division18/04/2026
PafosAEK Larnaca
11
1. Division25/01/2026
PafosAEK Larnaca
12
Super Cup30/10/2025
PafosAEK Larnaca
4151
1. Division05/10/2025
AEK LarnacaPafos
24
Cup24/05/2025
AEK LarnacaPafos
1000
1. Division18/05/2025
PafosAEK Larnaca
20
1. Division13/04/2025
AEK LarnacaPafos
22
1. Division22/12/2024
PafosAEK Larnaca
01
1. Division01/09/2024
AEK LarnacaPafos
02

Recent Form

AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca
4W2D4L
06/09/2026
Nea SalamisAEK Larnaca
14
W
29/08/2026
AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
31
W
30/07/2026
Beitar JerusalemAEK Larnaca
4233
L
23/07/2026
AEK LarnacaBeitar Jerusalem
01
L
16/07/2026
Apollon LimassolAEK Larnaca
00
D
10/07/2026
AjaxAEK Larnaca
10
L
07/07/2026
PAOKAEK Larnaca
32
L
04/07/2026
Helmond SportAEK Larnaca
12
W
22/05/2026
ArisAEK Larnaca
34
W
16/05/2026
AEK LarnacaPafos
22
D
PafosPafos
4W3D3L

Referee Profile

Menelaos Antoniou26 matches

4.15Cards per match
4.15Yellow cards per match
0.00Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Menelaos Antoniou4.15
Other referees4.70

4.15 cards a match, 0.55 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.70).

Cards come from 13 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

1. Division 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca962119:8+1120WDWDW
2Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia953117:6+1118WWLDW
3AELAEL960314:14018WLLWW
4Apoel NicosiaApoel Nicosia952221:11+1017WWWDW
5Apollon LimassolApollon Limassol944121:11+1016LDWWW
6PafosPafos944113:7+616WDDDW
7ArisAris943213:13015LWWDW
8Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou932415:17-211LWLWL
9OlympiakosOlympiakos916212:13-19WLDDL
10Nea SalamisNea Salamis922514:18-48WLDLL
11AnorthosisAnorthosis92077:17-106LLWLL
12KarmiotissaKarmiotissa91356:20-146LWLLL
13Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou91357:13-66LLLLL
14Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas91269:20-115LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1AEK LarnacaAEK Larnaca919:820
2Omonia NicosiaOmonia Nicosia917:618
3AELAEL914:1418
4Apoel NicosiaApoel Nicosia921:1117
5Apollon LimassolApollon Limassol921:1116
6PafosPafos913:716
7ArisAris913:1315
8Omonia 29is MaiouOmonia 29is Maiou915:1711
9OlympiakosOlympiakos912:139
10Nea SalamisNea Salamis914:188
11AnorthosisAnorthosis97:176
12KarmiotissaKarmiotissa96:206
13Omonia AradippouOmonia Aradippou97:136
14Krasava YpsonasKrasava Ypsonas99:205
PromotionRelegation

About the AEK Larnaca vs Pafos forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AEK Larnaca and Pafos in the 1. Division table

In the 1. Division table, AEK Larnaca are 1st and Pafos 6th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: AEK Larnaca 19-8, Pafos 13-7. The full standings are on the 1. Division Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.