Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Barcelona
5-2
Finished
HT 2-1
Rayo Vallecano
Camp Nou, Barcelona· Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain 31/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.95
SignalSTRONGModel73%RiskMediumGap+10.0%
Barcelona Rest
4 days
Rayo Vallecano Rest
11 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
90%1.10
X
8%11.00
2
2%23.00
Double Chance
1X
98%1.01
X2
10%7.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.95
No
44%1.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.59 + 0.82 = 3.41
Over 1.5
86%1.05
Over 2.5
69%1.20
Over 3.5
54%1.55
Under 1.5
14%9.20
Under 2.5
31%4.37
Under 3.5
46%2.43
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.1 + 3.6 = 10.7
Over 8.5
76%1.27
Over 9.5
69%1.45
Over 10.5
61%1.74
Under 8.5
24%3.33
Under 9.5
31%2.54
Under 10.5
39%1.99
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.3 = 4.2
Over 3.5
59%2.10
Over 4.5
40%3.10
Under 3.5
41%1.69
Under 4.5
60%1.32

Match Events

12'S. CamelloAssist: A. Garcia
19'RaphinhaAssist: X. Espart
21'Lamine YamalAssist: M. Bernal
32'J. Vertrouwd INA. Pedrosa out
45+1'Goal Disallowed - offsideJ. Kounde
51'F. LejeuneOG
57'G. Bouare INP. Diaz out
58'J. de Frutos INF. Perez out
59'S. CamelloAssist: U. Lopez
64'D. Olmo INFermin out
64'M. Bernal INRodri out
71'RaphinhaAssist: A. Gordon
75'S. Camello INAlemao out
75'U. Lopez INR. Nteka out
78'Pedri INJ. Cancelo out
78'A. Gordon INK. Adeyemi out
86'Raphinha INH. Abdelkarim out
90'A. PedrosaFoul
90'Lamine YamalAssist: K. Adeyemi

Lineups

Barcelona
4-2-3-1Coach: Hansi Flick
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1Coach: Benat San Jose
Joan García1J. GarcíaJoan García
Jules Koundé23J. KoundéJules Koundé
Pau Cubarsí5P. CubarsíPau Cubarsí
Andreas Christensen15A. ChristensenAndreas Christensen
Xavi Espart12X. EspartXavi Espart
Marc Bernal22M. BernalMarc Bernal
Pedri8PedriPedri
Lamine Yamal10L. YamalLamine Yamal
Dani Olmo20D. OlmoDani Olmo
Anthony Gordon17A. GordonAnthony Gordon
Raphinha11RaphinhaRaphinha
Dani Cárdenas1D. CárdenasDani Cárdenas
Iván Balliu20I. BalliuIván Balliu
Florian Lejeune24F. LejeuneFlorian Lejeune
Pathé Ismaël Ciss6P. Ismaël CissPathé Ismaël Ciss
Jozhua Vertrouwd33J. VertrouwdJozhua Vertrouwd
Óscar Valentín23Ó. ValentínÓscar Valentín
Gnangoro Bouaré36G. BouaréGnangoro Bouaré
Jorge de Frutos19J. de FrutosJorge de Frutos
Unai López8U. LópezUnai López
Álvaro García18Á. GarcíaÁlvaro García
Sergio Camello10S. CamelloSergio Camello

Barcelona Substitutes

13Wojciech SzczęsnyG
31Eder AllerG
3Alejandro BaldeD
2João CanceloD
24Eric GarcíaD
18Gerard MartínD
28Brian FariñasM
16RodriM
7Fermín LópezM
29Hamza AbdelkarimF
14Karim AdeyemiF

Rayo Vallecano Substitutes

17Adrià PedrosaD
30Adrián MolinaG
22Pelayo FernándezD
26Marco de las SiasD
2Andrei RațiuD
4Pedro DíazM
14Giorgi TsitaishviliF
21Fran PérezF
31Marco RománM
11Randy NtekaM
9AlemãoF

Match Stats

BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
70%Ball Possession30%
9Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards1
26Total Shots9
9Shots on Goal4
10Shots off Goal3
17Shots Inside Box5
9Shots Outside Box4
7Blocked Shots2
4Fouls10
3Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves5
642Total Passes264
580Passes Accurate193
90%Pass Accuracy73%

Team Comparison

BarcelonaBarcelona
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
2042Elo Rating 1783
4.31Attack 1.65
1.90Defense 0.04
100%Hit Rate 23%
21.0Shots per Game 12.4
8.5Shots on Target 5.9
6.2Corners per Game 6.2
1.2Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+259 Elo
High Goal Expectancy3.41 goals
📈BTTS Trend39% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

BarcelonaBarcelona
  • Leads at half-time in 100% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.4 vs 1.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Barcelona 77%Draw 23%0% Rayo Vallecano
1.84Avg Goals
39%BTTS Rate
31%Over 2.5

Recent Form

BarcelonaBarcelona
4W0D1L
27/08/2026
BarcelonaAthletic Club
20
W
23/08/2026
ElcheBarcelona
05
W
19/08/2026
BarcelonaAl Ahly
21
W
16/08/2026
FC Basel 1893Barcelona
25
W
08/08/2026
UdineseBarcelona
10
L
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
1W1D3L
20/08/2026
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
11
D
15/08/2026
SevillaRayo Vallecano
21
L
08/08/2026
IpswichRayo Vallecano
30
L
01/08/2026
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
23
W
26/07/2026
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
21
L

Referee Profile

Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain · 37 matches analysed

4.1Avg Yellows
4.1Avg Cards
24.9Avg Fouls
Stricter than 44% of referees analysed

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona550021:4+1715WWWWW
2Real MadridReal Madrid650117:6+1115WWLWW
3Real BetisReal Betis54017:6+112WWLWW
4AlavesAlaves631211:6+510LLWWD
5Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid531110:6+410WLWDW
6SevillaSevilla53118:6+210WDLWW
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna52309:6+39DWWDD
8EspanyolEspanyol62139:7+27LWDLL
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club52127:6+17DWWLL
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander52129:907WLWLD
11OsasunaOsasuna52125:8-37LLWWD
12Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano621310:15-57WLWLD
13Real SociedadReal Sociedad62136:11-57LWDWL
14LevanteLevante51227:9-25LDWDL
15GetafeGetafe51223:6-35DDLWL
16Celta VigoCelta Vigo60423:6-34DDDLL
17ValenciaValencia61142:10-84WLLLL
18MalagaMalaga50322:8-63DDLDL
19VillarrealVillarreal50237:10-32LLLDD
20ElcheElche60248:16-82LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona521:415
2Real MadridReal Madrid617:615
3Real BetisReal Betis57:612
4AlavesAlaves611:610
5Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid510:610
6SevillaSevilla58:610
7Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna59:69
8EspanyolEspanyol69:77
9Athletic ClubAthletic Club57:67
10Racing SantanderRacing Santander59:97
11OsasunaOsasuna55:87
12Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano610:157
13Real SociedadReal Sociedad66:117
14LevanteLevante57:95
15GetafeGetafe53:65
16Celta VigoCelta Vigo63:64
17ValenciaValencia62:104
18MalagaMalaga52:83
19VillarrealVillarreal57:102
20ElcheElche68:162
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Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this La Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Barcelona have led at half-time in 100% of their recent matches. Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.84 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.