Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction
Germany · Regular Season - 1
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 3.5
1.62
SignalSOLIDModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Bayern München Rest
6 days
VfB Stuttgart Rest
6 days
Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart: the result in context
Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 5-1 in the Bundesliga on 28 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Bayern München have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.9 goals a game.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
183%1.23
X14%7.36
23%10.00
Double Chance
1X97%1.06
X217%4.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes80%1.42
No20%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.55 + 1.26 = 3.81
Over 1.597%1.04
Over 2.592%1.17
Over 3.560%1.44
Under 1.53%12.00
Under 2.58%4.90
Under 3.540%2.66
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.7 = 10
Over 8.563%1.39
Over 9.553%1.70
Over 10.540%2.10
Under 8.537%2.67
Under 9.547%2.06
Under 10.560%1.68
Cards
Projected Cards: 0.8 + 1.9 = 2.7
Over 3.536%2.20
Over 4.511%3.25
Under 3.564%1.62
Under 4.589%1.29
Match Events
21'D. UpamecanoAssist: J. Kimmich
52'J. Vagnoman
55'M. OliseAssist: J. Kimmich
57'J. VagnomanOG
61'N. Brown INI. Saibari out
62'J. ChabotRoughing
62'T. Tomas INJ. Leweling out
63'D. Pejcinovic INE. Demirovic out
63'Goal Disallowed - offsideM. Olise
68'F. JeltschTripping
74'A. Davies INJ. Stanisic out
74'D. Undav INL. Stergiou out
74'J. Chabot INB. El Khannouss out
81'Kim Min-JaeRoughing
82'A. PavlovicAssist: I. Saibari
84'H. Kane INL. Karl out
84'Kim Min-Jae INJ. Tah out
84'A. Pavlovic INT. Bischof out
88'A. Stiller INC. Andres out
90+2'L. DiazAssist: I. Saibari
90+3'G. PromelUnsportsmanlike conduct
Lineups
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
3-4-2-1Coach: Sebastian HoenessAvg ratingAvg rating
C1M. Neuer
27K. Laimer
2D. Upamecano
3K. Min-jae
19A. Davies
6J. Kimmich
45A. Pavlović
17M. Olise
11N. Brown
14L. Díaz
9H. Kane
1F. Bredlow
29F. Jeltsch
24J. Chabot
3R. Hendriks
4J. Vagnoman
21G. Prömel
6A. Stiller
7M. Mittelstädt
17D. Pejčinović
C26D. Undav
8T. TomásBayern München Substitutes
40Jonas Urbig
4Jonathan Tah84'for Kim Min-Jae
44Josip Stanišić74'for A. Davies
21Hiroki Itō
39Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
42Lennart Karl84'for H. Kane
8Tom Bischof84'for A. Pavlovic
22Arijon Ibrahimović
34Ismael Saibari61'for N. Brown
VfB Stuttgart Substitutes
33Marius Funk
20Leonidas Stergiou74'for D. Undav
2Ameen Al-Dakhil
18Jamie Leweling62'for T. Tomas
27Badredine Bouanani
16Atakan Karazor
30Chema Andrés88'for A. Stiller
11Bilal El Khannouss74'for J. Chabot
9Ermedin Demirović63'for D. Pejcinovic
Match Stats
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart 59%Ball Possession41%
9Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards3
21Total Shots11
9Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal3
14Shots Inside Box7
7Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots4
10Fouls17
3Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
548Total Passes370
448Passes Accurate280
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Team Comparison
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart2115Elo Rating 1857
2.94Attack 1.58
1.90Defense 1.36
63%Hit Rate 42%
18.7Shots per Game 15.7
6.2Shots on Target 5.5
4.8Corners per Game 5.2
1.6Cards per Game 3.1
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+257 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Bayern München- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 1.1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
VfB Stuttgart- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Bayern München8Wins · 80%Draws110%
VfB Stuttgart1Wins · 10%
1Wins · 10%3.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
100%3+ goals10 of 10
Previous meetings
23/05/2026Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart30
19/04/2026Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart42
06/12/2025VfB StuttgartBayern München05
16/08/2025VfB StuttgartBayern München12
28/02/2025VfB StuttgartBayern München13
19/10/2024Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart40
04/05/2024VfB StuttgartBayern Munich31
17/12/2023Bayern MunichVfB Stuttgart30
04/03/2023VfB StuttgartBayern Munich12
10/09/2022Bayern MunichVfB Stuttgart22
Recent Form
Bayern München8W1D1L
22/08/2026
Borussia DortmundBayern München
Borussia DortmundBayern München12
W18/08/2026
1. FC HeidenheimBayern München
1. FC HeidenheimBayern München24
W15/08/2026Bayern München
RB Leipzig
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig31
W07/08/2026Bayern München
Aston Villa
Bayern MünchenAston Villa21
W04/08/2026
Jeju United FCBayern München
Jeju United FCBayern München12
W25/07/2026
SV WehenBayern München
SV WehenBayern München21
L23/05/2026Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart30
W16/05/2026Bayern München
1. FC Köln
Bayern München1. FC Köln51
W09/05/2026
VfL WolfsburgBayern München
VfL WolfsburgBayern München01
W06/05/2026Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern MünchenParis Saint Germain11
DVfB Stuttgart7W1D2L
21/08/2026
Hansa RostockVfB Stuttgart
Hansa RostockVfB Stuttgart04
W15/08/2026
FulhamVfB Stuttgart
FulhamVfB Stuttgart10
L08/08/2026VfB Stuttgart
Everton
VfB StuttgartEverton31
W01/08/2026VfB Stuttgart
Paris FC
VfB StuttgartParis FC21
W29/07/2026
Kickers OffenbachVfB Stuttgart
Kickers OffenbachVfB Stuttgart18
W25/07/2026
HollenbachVfB Stuttgart
HollenbachVfB Stuttgart05
W19/07/2026
BalingenVfB Stuttgart
BalingenVfB Stuttgart07
W23/05/2026Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart30
L16/05/2026
Eintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart
Eintracht FrankfurtVfB Stuttgart22
D09/05/2026VfB Stuttgart
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB StuttgartBayer Leverkusen31
WReferee Profile
4.44Cards per match
4.24Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
23.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.44 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.27).
Cards come from 85 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29:9 | +20 | 21 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | +10 | 19 | WWLLW |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27:13 | +14 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20:17 | +3 | 16 | WLLWW |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17:15 | +2 | 15 | LWWDD |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17:18 | -1 | 13 | LWLWL |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15:15 | 0 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 9 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 12 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | DWLWL |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 12 | WLLWW |
| 12 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 | DDWDL |
| 14 |  FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20:20 | 0 | 9 | LLDLD |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10:14 | -4 | 9 | LDDLW |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7:21 | -14 | 7 | LDDDW |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5:11 | -6 | 6 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12:25 | -13 | 4 | LDWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 29:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 16:7 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 20:10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 27:13 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 20:17 | 16 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 17:18 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 16:17 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 10:20 | 12 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 18:19 | 10 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 20:20 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 10:14 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 7:21 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 5:11 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 12:25 | 4 |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Explore more predictions
This match
More Bundesliga matches
- SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen 29/08/26
- 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim 29/08/26
- FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 29/08/26
- RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach 29/08/26
- Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt 29/08/26
- Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV 29/08/26
- SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen 30/08/26
- FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 30/08/26
About the Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart forecast
The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga table
In the Bundesliga table, Bayern München are 1st and VfB Stuttgart 8th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Bayern München 29-9, VfB Stuttgart 15-15. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Bayern München have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.