FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction

Mewa Arena, Mainz·Tobias Stieler, Germany 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.62
SignalGOODModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+11.4%
FSV Mainz 05 Rest
6 days
SC Paderborn 07 Rest
5 days

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: the result in context

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga on 29 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.57
X
24%4.34
2
19%5.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.16
X2
43%2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
69%1.62
No
31%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.88 + 1.39 = 3.27
Over 1.5
83%1.17
Over 2.5
60%1.60
Over 3.5
36%2.40
Under 1.5
17%4.70
Under 2.5
40%2.38
Under 3.5
64%1.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.50
Over 9.5
53%1.84
Over 10.5
38%2.31
Under 8.5
37%2.40
Under 9.5
47%1.91
Under 10.5
62%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.5
Over 3.5
50%1.86
Over 4.5
27%2.67
Under 3.5
50%1.83
Under 4.5
73%1.41

Match Events

38'Santiago CastanedaFoul
67'Stefano Marino INSteffen Tigges out
68'Sheraldo Becker INOtto Ruoppi out
68'Lee Jae-Sung INRansford Konigsdorffer out
72'Mattes HansenFoul
73'Anthony Caci INSilvan Widmer out
75'Mattes Hansen INJonah Sticker out
75'Laurin Ulrich INTom Baack out
80'Dominik Kohr INKacper Potulski out
90+1'Phillipp MweneFoul
90+2'Marvin Pieringer INClemens Lippmann out

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05
3-1-4-2Coach: Urs Fischer
SC Paderborn 07
3-4-3Coach: Ralf Kettemann
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating6.60
R. Zentner7.027R. Zentner
D. da Costa7.521D. da Costa
F. Gruber7.13F. Gruber
D. Kohr7.231D. Kohr
K. Sano6.96K. Sano
A. Caci6.519A. Caci
Lee Jae-Sung6.37L. Jae-Sung
N. Amiri7.210N. Amiri
P. Mwene6.22P. Mwene
S. Becker6.323S. Becker
P. Tietz6.49P. Tietz
N. Noll7.615N. Noll
J. ter Horst6.921J. ter Horst
T. Scheller7.025T. Scheller
M. Hansen6.622M. Hansen
L. Curda6.217L. Curda
L. Ulrich6.128L. Ulrich
S. Castañeda6.45S. Castañeda
R. Obermair6.423R. Obermair
S. Marino6.730S. Marino
M. Pieringer6.318M. Pieringer
G. Vidović6.340G. Vidović

FSV Mainz 05 Substitutes

24S. Kawasaki
11R. Königsdörffer68'for Lee Jae-Sung6.6
15L. Maloney
47R. Nakuzola
4S. Posch
48K. Potulski80'for Dominik Kohr6.8
20O. Ruoppi68'for Sheraldo Becker6.5
1A. Schwolow
30S. Widmer73'for Anthony Caci6.8

SC Paderborn 07 Substitutes

6T. Baack75'for Laurin Ulrich6.5
7O. Batista Meier
8L. Đurić
29C. Lippmann90+2'for Marvin Pieringer
1M. Schubert
27S. Tigges67'for Stefano Marino6.8
38D. Zeitler
24N. Mohr

Match Stats

FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07
51%Ball Possession49%
11Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards2
21Total Shots10
4Shots on Goal0
11Shots off Goal6
14Shots Inside Box6
7Shots Outside Box4
6Blocked Shots4
8Fouls10
1Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves4
461Total Passes462
385Passes Accurate386
84%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
1717Elo Rating 1702
1.25Attack 0.53
0.32Defense 2.16
17%Hit Rate 19%
13.2Shots per Game 15.7
4.9Shots on Target 4.9
6.2Corners per Game 5.5
2.5Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.27 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Recent Form

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
8W1D1L
23/08/2026
KrieschowFSV Mainz 05
09
W
15/08/2026
FSV Mainz 05Bournemouth
21
W
01/08/2026
UdineseFSV Mainz 05
33
D
31/07/2026
FSV Mainz 05Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
10
W
25/07/2026
FSV Mainz 05Holstein Kiel
30
W
17/07/2026
FSV Mainz 051. FC Kaiserslautern
41
W
11/07/2026
EisbachtalFSV Mainz 05
010
W
16/05/2026
1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
02
W
10/05/2026
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
13
L
03/05/2026
FC St. PauliFSV Mainz 05
12
W
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4W4D2L
23/08/2026
Phönix LübeckSC Paderborn 07
24
W
08/08/2026
Werder BremenSC Paderborn 07
22
D
01/08/2026
VfL OsnabrückSC Paderborn 07
02
W
25/05/2026
SC Paderborn 07VfL Wolfsburg
2111
W
21/05/2026
VfL WolfsburgSC Paderborn 07
00
D
17/05/2026
SV Darmstadt 98SC Paderborn 07
02
W
08/05/2026
SC Paderborn 07Karlsruher SC
22
D
03/05/2026
SV ElversbergSC Paderborn 07
51
L
26/04/2026
SC Paderborn 07FC Schalke 04
23
L
18/04/2026
Hannover 96SC Paderborn 07
11
D

Referee Profile

Tobias Stieler225 matches

3.88Cards per match
3.72Yellow cards per match
0.15Red cards per match
23.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Tobias Stieler3.85
Other referees4.30

3.85 cards a match, 0.45 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.30).

Cards come from 214 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Bundesliga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Bayern MünchenBayern München963029:9+2021WDWWD
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund963016:7+921WDWDD
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg961220:10+1019WWLLW
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig960327:13+1418WWWLW
5Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen951320:17+316WLLWW
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen943217:15+215LWWDD
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg941417:18-113LWLWL
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart940515:15012WWLLW
91899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim940516:17-112WLWWL
10Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt933315:20-512DWLWL
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV940510:20-1012WLLWW
12FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05931518:19-110LLLWL
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0792438:11-310DDWDL
14FC AugsburgFC Augsburg923420:2009LLDLD
151. FC Köln1. FC Köln923410:14-49LDDLW
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin91447:21-147LDDDW
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0491355:11-66LLDLL
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach911712:25-134LDWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Bayern MünchenBayern München929:921
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund916:721
3SC FreiburgSC Freiburg920:1019
4RB LeipzigRB Leipzig927:1318
5Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen920:1716
6Werder BremenWerder Bremen917:1515
7SV ElversbergSV Elversberg917:1813
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart915:1512
91899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim916:1712
10Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt915:2012
11Hamburger SVHamburger SV910:2012
12FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05918:1910
13SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0798:1110
14FC AugsburgFC Augsburg920:209
151. FC Köln1. FC Köln910:149
16Union BerlinUnion Berlin97:217
17FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 0495:116
18Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach912:254
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 forecast

The forecasts for this Bundesliga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga table

In the Bundesliga table, FSV Mainz 05 (12th) and SC Paderborn 07 (13th) are level on 10 points. League goal record so far: FSV Mainz 05 18-19, SC Paderborn 07 8-11. The full standings are on the Bundesliga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.