Benfica vs Estoril Prediction

Benfica
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Estoril
Estádio da Luz, Lisbon·Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal 31/08/2026
BenficaBenfica
2-1
Finished
EstorilEstoril

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
55%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.95
SignalNEUTRALModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+7.9%
Benfica Rest
4 days
Estoril Rest
9 days

Benfica vs Estoril: the result in context

Benfica beat Estoril 2-1 in the Primeira Liga on 31 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Benfica had won 3 of their previous five, compared with none for Estoril.

Benfica have had the better of this fixture, winning 9 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Benfica tend to win more corners, 7.4 a game to 5.4 for Estoril.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
75%1.11
X
19%10.00
2
6%20.00
Double Chance
1X
94%1.02
X2
25%6.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.95
No
45%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.35 + 0.77 = 3.12
Over 1.5
83%1.06
Over 2.5
61%1.25
Over 3.5
35%1.67
Under 1.5
17%8.50
Under 2.5
39%3.80
Under 3.5
65%2.19
Corners
Projected Corners: 8 + 2.6 = 10.6
Over 8.5
75%1.29
Over 9.5
64%1.48
Over 10.5
54%1.80
Under 8.5
25%3.10
Under 9.5
36%2.38
Under 10.5
46%1.92
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.3 = 3.8
Over 3.5
51%1.68
Over 4.5
31%2.36
Under 3.5
49%2.08
Under 4.5
69%1.52

Match Events

31'E. Barrenechea INJ. Palhinha out
40'V. Pavlidis
46'Xeka INJ. Holsgrove out
51'C. LengletAssist: T. Araujo
63'Rafa Silva INA. Schjelderup out
71'R. Sanchez INP. Carvalho out
71'A. Lacximicant INPeixinho out
71'S. Andreou INF. Garcia out
75'I. SierraTripping
80'V. Pavlidis INJ. Duran out
80'G. Sudakov ING. Moreira out
80'G. Prestianni IND. Lukebakio out
82'Y. BegraouiAssist: F. Medrano
82'F. Medrano INR. Guitane out

Lineups

Benfica
4-2-3-1Coach: Marco Silva
Estoril
3-4-3Coach: Vasco Matos
Avg rating7.05
Avg rating6.94
Samuel Soares6.724S. Soares
Alexander Bah7.36A. Bah
Tomás AraújoC8.044T. Araújo
Clément Lenglet8.22C. Lenglet
Samuel Dahl7.226S. Dahl
Leandro Barreiro6.218L. Barreiro
Enzo Barrenechea6.95E. Barrenechea
Rafa Silva7.327R. Silva
Georgiy Sudakov7.210G. Sudakov
Gianluca Prestianni7.225G. Prestianni
Vangelis Pavlidis7.914V. Pavlidis
Joel Robles9.01J. Robles
Stelios Andreou6.925S. Andreou
Ferro7.54Ferro
Ismael Sierra Arnal6.215I. Sierra Arnal
Ricard Sánchez6.52R. Sánchez
Xeka6.38Xeka
Antef Tsoungui7.55A. Tsoungui
Fernando Medrano6.53F. Medrano
André Lacximicant7.27A. Lacximicant
Yanis Begraoui7.614Y. Begraoui
João CarvalhoC7.012J. Carvalho

Benfica Substitutes

36João Palhinha31'for E. Barrenechea6.9
1Anatoliy Trubin
62José Neto
3Alessandro Circati
16Manu Silva
20Richard Ríos
77Gonçalo Moreira80'for G. Sudakov6.3
13Jakub Kamiński
11Dodi Lukebakio80'for G. Prestianni6.7
21Andreas Schjelderup63'for Rafa Silva6.3
22Jhon Durán80'for V. Pavlidis6.5
72Anísio Cabral

Estoril Substitutes

10Jordan Holsgrove46'for Xeka6.3
23Diogo Dias
16Martin Turk
42Jordan Arnolin
22Pedro Carvalho71'for R. Sanchez6.7
19Tiago Parente
80Luis Gomes
90Tiago Brito
99Rafik Guitane82'for F. Medrano6.7
98Fabrício Garcia71'for S. Andreou6.5
17Peixinho71'for A. Lacximicant6.7

Match Stats

BenficaEstoril
66%Ball Possession34%
9Corner Kicks0
0Yellow Cards1
25Total Shots4
8Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal1
15Shots Inside Box3
10Shots Outside Box1
10Blocked Shots1
14Fouls12
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves6
616Total Passes327
547Passes Accurate243
89%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

BenficaBenfica
EstorilEstoril
1929Elo Rating 1537
2.49Attack 0.69
2.01Defense 1.72
81%Hit Rate 0%
18.8Shots per Game 14.6
5.0Shots on Target 6.2
7.4Corners per Game 5.4
3.2Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+392 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.11 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

BenficaBenfica
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
EstorilEstoril
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BenficaBenfica9Wins · 90%
Draws110%
EstorilEstoril0Wins · 0%
2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga16/05/2026
EstorilBenfica
13
Primeira Liga03/01/2026
BenficaEstoril
31
Primeira Liga03/05/2025
EstorilBenfica
12
Primeira Liga23/12/2024
BenficaEstoril
30
Primeira Liga10/03/2024
BenficaEstoril
31
Taça da Liga24/01/2024
BenficaEstoril
4151
Primeira Liga07/10/2023
EstorilBenfica
01
Primeira Liga23/04/2023
BenficaEstoril
10
Taça de Portugal09/11/2022
EstorilBenfica
01
Primeira Liga06/11/2022
EstorilBenfica
15

Recent Form

BenficaBenfica
7W2D1L
27/08/2026
AarhusBenfica
13
W
20/08/2026
BenficaAarhus
31
W
17/08/2026
Casa PiaBenfica
07
W
13/08/2026
Heart Of MidlothianBenfica
11
D
09/08/2026
BenficaAcademico Viseu
22
D
06/08/2026
BenficaHeart Of Midlothian
61
W
30/07/2026
BenficaFC ST. Gallen
50
W
24/07/2026
BenficaCF Os Belenenses
51
W
23/07/2026
FC ST. GallenBenfica
21
L
17/07/2026
BenficaVillarreal
20
W
EstorilEstoril
1W5D4L
22/08/2026
EstorilRio Ave
02
L
16/08/2026
NacionalEstoril
20
L
07/08/2026
EstorilFamalicao
11
D
31/07/2026
CF Os BelenensesEstoril
11
D
25/07/2026
EstorilTorreense
00
D
22/07/2026
AlvercaEstoril
20
L
11/07/2026
EstorilAtlético CP
30
W
16/05/2026
EstorilBenfica
13
L
10/05/2026
AlvercaEstoril
11
D
03/05/2026
SC BragaEstoril
11
D

Referee Profile

Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho5 matches analysed

3.88Cards per match
3.72Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
26.7Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 12% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto880020:4+1624WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica861124:7+1719WLWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP853020:9+1118WDDWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara853012:4+818WDWWD
5AroucaArouca842211:7+414WDLDW
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente84228:6+214WWDLL
7Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu842211:10+114WWWWL
8AlvercaAlverca832313:12+111WWWLD
9SC BragaSC Braga83239:10-111LLDWL
10EstrelaEstrela824214:15-110LLDWD
11MaritimoMaritimo82249:14-58LDLLL
12MoreirenseMoreirense82248:15-78LDWLL
13FamalicaoFamalicao814310:11-17LWDDD
14Rio AveRio Ave82158:17-97WLDLL
15Vitória SCVitória SC81255:10-55LDLDL
16NacionalNacional81169:18-94LLLLL
17Casa PiaCasa Pia81163:17-144LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril80264:12-82LLLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto820:424
2BenficaBenfica824:719
3Sporting CPSporting CP820:918
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara812:418
5AroucaArouca811:714
6GIL VicenteGIL Vicente88:614
7Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu811:1014
8AlvercaAlverca813:1211
9SC BragaSC Braga89:1011
10EstrelaEstrela814:1510
11MaritimoMaritimo89:148
12MoreirenseMoreirense88:158
13FamalicaoFamalicao810:117
14Rio AveRio Ave88:177
15Vitória SCVitória SC85:105
16NacionalNacional89:184
17Casa PiaCasa Pia83:174
18EstorilEstoril84:122
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Benfica vs Estoril forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Benfica and Estoril in the Primeira Liga table

The table shows a wide gap: Benfica are 2nd in the Primeira Liga, while Estoril sit 18th, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: Benfica 24-7, Estoril 4-12. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Benfica have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.