Nacional vs Estoril Prediction

Nacional
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Estoril
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal·Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal 16/08/2026
NacionalNacional
2-0
Finished
EstorilEstoril

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.88
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Nacional Rest
5 days
Estoril Rest
8 days

Nacional vs Estoril: result, form and history

Nacional beat Estoril 2-0 in the Primeira Liga on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Estoril have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game. Referee Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa averages 4.55 cards a game, 0.94 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.75
X
28%3.30
2
34%2.50
Double Chance
1X
66%1.48
X2
62%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.66
No
49%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.14 = 2.40
Over 1.5
69%1.25
Over 2.5
41%1.89
Over 3.5
20%3.20
Under 1.5
31%3.50
Under 2.5
59%1.88
Under 3.5
80%1.31
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.7 = 10.3
Over 8.5
64%1.35
Over 9.5
53%1.64
Over 10.5
43%2.05
Under 8.5
36%2.83
Under 9.5
47%2.14
Under 10.5
57%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2
Over 3.5
76%-
Over 4.5
55%-
Under 3.5
24%-
Under 4.5
45%-

Match Events

11'Xeka
32'Xeka
32'Xeka
51'Matheus Dias
63'A. Lacximicant INT. Brito out
63'R. Guitane INF. Garcia out
66'M. Baeza INDeivison out
66'Matheus Dias INS. Gavriel out
68'Ze VitorAssist: Leo Santos
75'R. Sanchez INP. Carvalho out
75'F. Medrano ING. Costa out
77'Leo SantosAssist: Daniel Junior
79'F. Soares
81'Daniel Junior IND. I. de la Cruz out
82'I. Sierra
85'A. Tsoungui INJandro out
85'Ferro
88'Pablo Ruan INJ. Silva out

Lineups

Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Giao Joao
Estoril
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Matos
Avg rating7.17
Avg rating6.46
Renato Marin7.71R. Marin
Léo SantosC8.634L. Santos
Matheus Dias6.66M. Dias
Ze Vitor8.738Z. Vitor
Wesley Gasolina7.052W. Gasolina
Liziero7.028Liziero
Filipe Soares6.622F. Soares
Markus Jensen7.37M. Jensen
Miguel Baeza6.78M. Baeza
Daniel Júnior7.510D. Júnior
Pablo Messias Cardozo6.699P. Messias Cardozo
Joel Robles6.61J. Robles
Ricard Sánchez6.62R. Sánchez
Ferro7.04Ferro
Ismael Sierra Arnal6.515I. Sierra Arnal
Fernando Medrano6.73F. Medrano
Xeka5.28Xeka
Antef Tsoungui6.35A. Tsoungui
Rafik Guitane6.399R. Guitane
João CarvalhoC7.212J. Carvalho
André Lacximicant6.37A. Lacximicant
Yanis Begraoui6.214Y. Begraoui

Nacional Substitutes

11Stavros Gavriel66'for Matheus Dias7.2
88Deivison Souza Brito66'for M. Baeza6.6
2Daniel De la Cruz81'for Daniel Junior6.7
26Joel Silva88'for Pablo Ruan6.7
13João Gonçalves
50Kevyn
14Ivanildo Fernandes
33Francisco Gonçalves
55Pedro Silva
15Chiheb Labidi
23Mateus Jose Iseppe
30Martim Gustavo Watts

Estoril Substitutes

90Tiago Brito63'for A. Lacximicant6.2
98Fabrício Garcia63'for R. Guitane6.7
22Pedro Carvalho75'for R. Sanchez6.7
18Gonçalo Costa75'for F. Medrano6.2
6Jandro Orellana85'for A. Tsoungui6.7
23Diogo Dias
16Martin Turk
42Jordan Arnolin
19Tiago Parente
25Stelios Andreou
80Luis Gomes

Match Stats

NacionalEstoril
59%Ball Possession41%
7Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
20Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box4
10Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots1
13Fouls13
1Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves1
451Total Passes316
391Passes Accurate253
87%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

NacionalNacional
EstorilEstoril
1508Elo Rating 1504
0.56Attack 0.73
1.48Defense 0.43
23%Hit Rate 0%
8.7Shots per Game 15.3
3.0Shots on Target 4.9
4.7Corners per Game 4.0
1.6Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
EstorilEstoril
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

NacionalNacional0Wins · 0%
Draws240%
EstorilEstoril3Wins · 60%
2.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga15/03/2026
NacionalEstoril
01
Primeira Liga26/10/2025
EstorilNacional
11
Primeira Liga15/02/2025
NacionalEstoril
22
Primeira Liga15/09/2024
EstorilNacional
10
Taça da Liga25/07/2021
NacionalEstoril
12

Recent Form

NacionalNacional
3W4D3L
10/08/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
22
D
23/07/2026
EstrelaNacional
20
L
22/07/2026
NacionalLeganes
00
D
19/07/2026
TondelaNacional
11
D
18/07/2026
NacionalLeixoes
33
D
16/05/2026
NacionalGuimaraes
20
W
11/05/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
20
L
02/05/2026
NacionalAVS
12
L
25/04/2026
TondelaNacional
02
W
18/04/2026
NacionalAlverca
10
W
EstorilEstoril
1W5D4L
07/08/2026
EstorilFamalicao
11
D
31/07/2026
CF Os BelenensesEstoril
11
D
25/07/2026
EstorilTorreense
00
D
22/07/2026
AlvercaEstoril
20
L
11/07/2026
EstorilAtlético CP
30
W
16/05/2026
EstorilBenfica
13
L
10/05/2026
AlvercaEstoril
11
D
03/05/2026
SC BragaEstoril
11
D
26/04/2026
EstorilFamalicao
01
L
20/04/2026
MoreirenseEstoril
10
L

Referee Profile

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa130 matches

4.55Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa4.55
Other referees5.49

4.55 cards a match, 0.94 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.49).

Cards come from 76 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto11110027:5+2233WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica1191130:10+2028WWWWL
3Sporting CPSporting CP1173124:11+1324WWLWD
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1163216:8+821LWLWD
5AroucaArouca1162313:8+520LWWWD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1162315:13+220LWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1153310:8+218WDLWW
8SC BragaSC Braga1152413:11+217WWLLL
9MoreirenseMoreirense1142513:18-514LWWLD
10FamalicaoFamalicao1134415:14+113WLWLW
11AlvercaAlverca1133514:15-112DLLWW
12EstrelaEstrela1124517:22-510LLLLL
13NacionalNacional1131711:19-810WLWLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC1123611:12-19LDWLD
15MaritimoMaritimo102269:21-128LLLDL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia112276:20-148DLWLW
17Rio AveRio Ave112189:24-157LLLWL
18EstorilEstoril100285:19-142LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto1127:533
2BenficaBenfica1130:1028
3Sporting CPSporting CP1124:1124
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1116:821
5AroucaArouca1113:820
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1115:1320
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1110:818
8SC BragaSC Braga1113:1117
9MoreirenseMoreirense1113:1814
10FamalicaoFamalicao1115:1413
11AlvercaAlverca1114:1512
12EstrelaEstrela1117:2210
13NacionalNacional1111:1910
14Vitória SCVitória SC1111:129
15MaritimoMaritimo109:218
16Casa PiaCasa Pia116:208
17Rio AveRio Ave119:247
18EstorilEstoril105:192
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Nacional vs Estoril forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nacional and Estoril in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Nacional are 13th and Estoril 18th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Nacional 11-19, Estoril 5-19. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.