Carlisle vs Harrogate Town Prediction

Carlisle
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Harrogate Town
Brunton Park, Carlisle 28/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.15
SignalHIGHModel44%SurpriseHighGap-7.4%
Carlisle Rest
4 days
Harrogate Town Rest
4 days

Carlisle vs Harrogate Town: the result in context

Carlisle beat Harrogate Town 3-0 in the National League on 28 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Harrogate Town have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game. Carlisle tend to win more corners, 11.0 a game to 6.5 for Harrogate Town.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%1.98
X
28%3.62
2
27%3.23
Double Chance
1X
73%1.27
X2
55%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.48
No
40%2.45
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.61 + 1.25 = 2.86
Over 1.5
80%1.15
Over 2.5
59%1.56
Over 3.5
37%2.33
Under 1.5
20%4.80
Under 2.5
41%2.32
Under 3.5
63%1.53
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

9'J. WilliamsAssist: C. Whelan
14'M. Azeez
22'K. Richardson
30'H. Bunker
40'D. Ajiboye INC. Camps out
41'C. McGuckin
43'E. Bristow
46'L. Cass INS. McCoulsky out
46'C. WhelanAssist: J. Williams
54'M. Williams
56'J. Williams INR. Galvin out
56'C. Whelan INT. Jenks out
61'R. Galvin
63'S. Dreyer
65'C. McGuckin INJ. Muldoon out
68'M. Obiero INS. Wearne out
69'K. Richardson INT. Mullarkey out

Team Comparison

CarlisleCarlisle
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town
1618Elo Rating 1598
1.78Attack 2.28
2.34Defense 2.31
81%Hit Rate 81%
22.0Shots per Game 17.4
10.0Shots on Target 5.2
11.0Corners per Game 6.5
2.0Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.87 goals
📈BTTS Trend33% in H2H
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

CarlisleCarlisle
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.5 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

CarlisleCarlisle0Wins · 0%
Draws333%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town6Wins · 67%
2.1Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored3 of 9
22%3+ goals2 of 9

Previous meetings

League Two08/03/2025
Harrogate TownCarlisle
10
League Two19/10/2024
CarlisleHarrogate Town
11
League Cup08/08/2023
Harrogate TownCarlisle
10
League Two04/02/2023
CarlisleHarrogate Town
01
League Two08/11/2022
Harrogate TownCarlisle
33
League Two23/04/2022
Harrogate TownCarlisle
30
League Two23/11/2021
CarlisleHarrogate Town
02
League Two24/04/2021
CarlisleHarrogate Town
11
League Two16/02/2021
Harrogate TownCarlisle
10

League Table

National League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Boreham WoodBoreham Wood15132040:14+2641WWWWW
2Harrogate TownHarrogate Town15101432:21+1131LWWWW
3SouthendSouthend1585236:24+1229DDWWD
4Yeovil TownYeovil Town1584335:18+1728WLWWD
5WorthingWorthing1584332:22+1028DWWWD
6AltrinchamAltrincham1591522:20+228DWWLW
7AFC FyldeAFC Fylde1582527:23+426WLWLL
8BarrowBarrow1473425:18+724DWWWW
9CarlisleCarlisle1565428:21+723WWDWW
10FC Halifax TownFC Halifax Town1563626:20+621LDWWD
11Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster Harriers1556416:14+221DLDDL
12Sutton UtdSutton Utd1563617:21-421WLLDL
13AFC HornchurchAFC Hornchurch1570817:23-621LLWLW
14WokingWoking1553724:24018LWLWL
15Forest GreenForest Green1353521:22-118DLDDL
16Aldershot TownAldershot Town1553718:19-118LLLLL
17EastleighEastleigh1553718:24-618LWLLD
18TamworthTamworth1452725:31-617WLWWL
19WealdstoneWealdstone1543820:27-715LWLLD
20HartlepoolHartlepool15501015:23-815LWWLL
21Boston UnitedBoston United1543819:28-915WLLLD
22ScunthorpeScunthorpe14311018:28-1010LLLLW
23Solihull MoorsSolihull Moors15311117:39-2210WLLLW
24GatesheadGateshead1411129:33-244LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Boreham WoodBoreham Wood1540:1441
2Harrogate TownHarrogate Town1532:2131
3SouthendSouthend1536:2429
4Yeovil TownYeovil Town1535:1828
5WorthingWorthing1532:2228
6AltrinchamAltrincham1522:2028
7AFC FyldeAFC Fylde1527:2326
8BarrowBarrow1425:1824
9CarlisleCarlisle1528:2123
10FC Halifax TownFC Halifax Town1526:2021
11Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster Harriers1516:1421
12Sutton UtdSutton Utd1517:2121
13AFC HornchurchAFC Hornchurch1517:2321
14WokingWoking1524:2418
15Forest GreenForest Green1321:2218
16Aldershot TownAldershot Town1518:1918
17EastleighEastleigh1518:2418
18TamworthTamworth1425:3117
19WealdstoneWealdstone1520:2715
20HartlepoolHartlepool1515:2315
21Boston UnitedBoston United1519:2815
22ScunthorpeScunthorpe1418:2810
23Solihull MoorsSolihull Moors1517:3910
24GatesheadGateshead149:334
PromotionRelegation

About the Carlisle vs Harrogate Town forecast

The forecasts for this National League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Carlisle and Harrogate Town in the National League table

In the National League table, Harrogate Town are 2nd and Carlisle 9th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Carlisle 28-21, Harrogate Town 32-21. The full standings are on the National League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Carlisle have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Harrogate Town have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.