Cerro vs Penarol Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 4
Mathias De Armas, Uruguay 07/06/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40
SignalHIGHModel85%SurpriseMediumGap+8.5%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel61%SurpriseMedium
Cerro Rest
8 days
Penarol Rest
5 days
Cerro vs Penarol: the result in context
Penarol beat Cerro 1-0 in the Primera División - Apertura on 7 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Penarol have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.89 cards a game, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
115%6.08
X21%3.65
264%1.55
Double Chance
1X36%2.38
X285%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%2.27
No50%1.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.87 + 2.09 = 2.96
Over 1.580%1.40
Over 2.558%2.25
Over 3.534%4.26
Under 1.520%2.77
Under 2.542%1.60
Under 3.566%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
20'F. Batista(Penalty missed)
31'M. Ocampo
46'A. Cambon INN. Soria out
56'F. Batista INA. Hernandez out
57'A. Hernandez
65'T. Rijo INR. Mederos out
69'J. Cabrera IND. Laxalt out
74'A. Cappuccio
78'E. Gularte INLucas Hernandez out
78'I. Valenzuela INS. Paiva out
79'J. Amaro
88'A. Madruga
Lineups
CerroPenarol
4-2-3-1Coach: Diego Aguirre
12Y. Irrazábal
24I. Valenzuela
5A. Macelli
16J. Cruz Guasone
6F. Bregante
31J. Amaro
33T. Rijo
27C. Barros
10B. Alemán
77M. Ocampo
28A. Cambón
29W. Aguerre
36B. Barboza
3M. Lemos
4E. Gularte
15M. Olivera
21J. Trindade
8N. Fernández
7J. Cabrera
13E. Darias
32L. Umpierrez
9F. BatistaCerro Substitutes
14Nahuel Soria46'for A. Cambon
25Fabrizio Correa
4Mateo Argüello
3Ariel Lima
32Rodrigo Mederos65'replaced by T. Rijo
21Axel Mendez
41Sebastián Cristóforo
19Emiliano Sosa
8Agustín Miranda
29Santiago Paiva78'for I. Valenzuela
Penarol Substitutes
99Abel Hernández56'for F. Batista57'
1Sebastián Britos
27Lucas Hernández78'for E. Gularte
26Andrés Madruga88'
14Kevin Rodríguez
28Ignacio Alegre
93Diego Laxalt69'for J. Cabrera
23Gastón Togni
16Tomas Olase
30Stiven Muhlethaler
Team Comparison
CerroPenarol1448Elo Rating 1635
1.19Attack 0.41
0.97Defense 1.97
17%Hit Rate 0%
8.2Shots per Game 10.8
3.9Shots on Target 3.0
3.5Corners per Game 4.6
3.7Cards per Game 4.5
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Cerro- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
Penarol- Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings, all competitions
Cerro0Wins · 0%Draws00%
Penarol5Wins · 100%
5Wins · 100%3.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5
Previous meetings
21/03/2026PenarolCerro31
28/06/2025PenarolCerro20
27/04/2025PenarolCerro31
09/03/2024PenarolCerro30
04/02/2023PenarolCerro20
Recent Form
Cerro2W2D6L
30/05/2026
Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro20
L24/05/2026Cerro
Central Espanol
CerroCentral Espanol10
W16/05/2026
Boston RiverCerro
Boston RiverCerro41
L11/05/2026
Club NacionalCerro
Club NacionalCerro40
L02/05/2026Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
CerroDeportivo Maldonado01
L26/04/2026Central EspanolCerro
Central EspanolCerro31
L19/04/2026Cerro
Atletico Torque
CerroAtletico Torque11
D11/04/2026Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro11
D05/04/2026Cerro
Defensor Sporting
CerroDefensor Sporting10
W28/03/2026
WanderersCerro
WanderersCerro30
LPenarol3W3D4L
02/06/2026PenarolCentral Espanol
PenarolCentral Espanol01
L28/05/2026Penarol
Santa Fe
PenarolSanta Fe01
L24/05/2026Defensor SportingPenarol
Defensor SportingPenarol02
W22/05/2026Penarol
Corinthians
PenarolCorinthians11
D16/05/2026Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo21
W12/05/2026Cerro LargoPenarol
Cerro LargoPenarol23
W08/05/2026
PlatensePenarol
PlatensePenarol11
D05/05/2026PenarolDefensor Sporting
PenarolDefensor Sporting11
D01/05/2026CorinthiansPenarol
CorinthiansPenarol20
L27/04/2026WanderersPenarol
WanderersPenarol10
LReferee Profile
4.89Cards per match
4.67Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.89 cards a match, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.97).
Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 52:28 | +24 | 65 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 59:41 | +18 | 63 | WDLDL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 53:42 | +11 | 61 | LWLLW |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 45:31 | +14 | 60 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 47:31 | +16 | 59 | DLWLD |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 42:44 | -2 | 51 | WLLLW |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 37:43 | -6 | 41 | DDWLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 35:43 | -8 | 39 | WDWLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 33:41 | -8 | 37 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 34:47 | -13 | 37 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 29:53 | -24 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | 10 | 5 | 20 | 31:49 | -18 | 35 | LWLLD |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 29:45 | -16 | 32 | WDDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 52:28 | 65 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 59:41 | 63 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 45:31 | 60 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 47:31 | 59 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 42:44 | 51 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 37:43 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 35:43 | 39 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 33:41 | 37 |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 34:47 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 29:53 | 37 |
| 15 | Progreso | 35 | 31:49 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 29:45 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | 118:62 | +56 | 144 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | 129:75 | +54 | 140 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | 98:68 | +30 | 124 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 84:69 | +15 | 113 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | 113:92 | +21 | 112 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 82:82 | 0 | 102 | DDWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 77:81 | -4 | 100 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | 84:86 | -2 | 92 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 74:82 | -8 | 86 | LLDDW |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | 62:95 | -33 | 83 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 67:91 | -24 | 82 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | 70:86 | -16 | 75 | WDDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 20 | 14 | 38 | 69:109 | -40 | 74 | LWLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 118:62 | 144 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 129:75 | 140 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 98:68 | 124 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 84:69 | 113 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 113:92 | 112 |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 82:82 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 77:81 | 100 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 84:86 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 74:82 | 86 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 62:95 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 67:91 | 82 |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 70:86 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 69:109 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WDWLD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | LWLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DLWLD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LDDWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 26:14 | +12 | 28 | WDLDL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | +6 | 26 | LWLLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 22 | LDWWL |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17:9 | +8 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | +4 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13:15 | -2 | 19 | LWLLD |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12:10 | +2 | 18 | DDWLL |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 18 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14:19 | -5 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:17 | -2 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 13 | WWWDD |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 12 | WDWLD |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 10 | WDDDL |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 9 | LLDDW |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8:22 | -14 | 8 | WLDWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 22:8 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 26:14 | 28 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 19:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 18:10 | 22 |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 17:9 | 22 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 13:15 | 19 |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 14:19 | 16 |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 16:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 10:17 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 8:22 | 8 |
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About the Cerro vs Penarol forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División - Apertura match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Cerro and Penarol in the Primera División - Apertura table
The table shows a wide gap: Penarol are 1st in the Primera División - Apertura, while Cerro sit 14th, 28 points behind. League goal record so far: Cerro 29-53, Penarol 52-28. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.