Cerro vs Penarol Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 4
Mathias De Armas, Uruguay 07/06/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40SignalSTRONGModel85%RiskMediumGap+8.5%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40SignalHIGHModel61%RiskMedium
Cerro Rest
8 days
Penarol Rest
5 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
115%6.08
X21%3.65
264%1.55
Double Chance
1X36%2.38
X285%1.09
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%2.28
No50%1.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.87 + 2.09 = 2.96
Over 1.580%1.40
Over 2.558%2.25
Over 3.534%4.33
Under 1.520%2.80
Under 2.542%1.60
Under 3.566%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
20'F. Batista(Penalty missed)
31'M. Ocampo
46'A. Cambon INN. Soria out
56'F. Batista INA. Hernandez out
57'A. Hernandez
65'T. Rijo INR. Mederos out
69'J. Cabrera IND. Laxalt out
74'A. Cappuccio
78'E. Gularte INLucas Hernandez out
78'I. Valenzuela INS. Paiva out
79'J. Amaro
88'A. Madruga
Lineups
CerroPenarol
4-2-3-1Coach: Diego Aguirre
12Y. IrrazábalYonatan Irrazábal
24I. ValenzuelaIvan Valenzuela
5A. MacelliAlejo Macelli
16J. Cruz GuasoneJuan Cruz Guasone
6F. BreganteFrancisco Bregante
31J. AmaroJairo Amaro
33T. RijoTiago Rijo
27C. BarrosCristian Barros
10B. AlemánBrahian Alemán
77M. OcampoMatías Ocampo
28A. CambónAugusto Cambón
29W. AguerreWashington Aguerre
36B. BarbozaBrian Barboza
3M. LemosMauricio Lemos
4E. GularteEmanuel Gularte
15M. OliveraMaximiliano Olivera
21J. TrindadeJesús Trindade
8N. FernándezNicolás Fernández
7J. CabreraJavier Cabrera
13E. DariasEduardo Darias
32L. UmpierrezLeandro Umpierrez
9F. BatistaFacundo BatistaCerro Substitutes
14Nahuel SoriaF
25Fabrizio CorreaG
4Mateo ArgüelloD
3Ariel LimaD
32Rodrigo MederosM
21Axel MendezM
41Sebastián CristóforoM
19Emiliano SosaM
8Agustín MirandaM
29Santiago PaivaF
Penarol Substitutes
99Abel HernándezF
1Sebastián BritosG
27Lucas HernándezD
26Andrés MadrugaD
14Kevin RodríguezD
28Ignacio AlegreD
93Diego LaxaltM
23Gastón TogniM
16Tomas OlaseM
30Stiven MuhlethalerM
Team Comparison
CerroPenarol1487Elo Rating 1665
1.31Attack 2.26
1.97Defense 2.18
46%Hit Rate 64%
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
📈BTTS Trend46% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
Game State Tendencies
Cerro- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Penarol- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.8 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Based on 5 historical meetings
Cerro 0%Draw 0%100% Penarol
3.09Avg Goals
46%BTTS Rate
63%Over 2.5
Recent Form
Cerro1W0D4L
30/05/2026
Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro20
L24/05/2026Cerro
Central Espanol
CerroCentral Espanol10
W16/05/2026
Boston RiverCerro
Boston RiverCerro41
L11/05/2026
Club NacionalCerro
Club NacionalCerro40
L02/05/2026Cerro
Deportivo Maldonado
CerroDeportivo Maldonado01
LPenarol2W1D2L
02/06/2026PenarolCentral Espanol
PenarolCentral Espanol01
L28/05/2026Penarol
Santa Fe
PenarolSanta Fe01
L24/05/2026
Defensor SportingPenarol
Defensor SportingPenarol02
W22/05/2026Penarol
Corinthians
PenarolCorinthians11
D16/05/2026Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo21
WReferee Profile
Mathias De Armas, Uruguay · 4 matches analysed
4.1Avg Yellows
4.3Avg Cards
25.0Avg Fouls
Stricter than 39% of referees analysed
League Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 46:23 | +23 | 55 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44:27 | +17 | 52 | LWDWL |
| 3 |  Racing Montevideo | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 35:22 | +13 | 52 | WWWWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Torque | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 47:31 | +16 | 50 | WWWDL |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 43:38 | +5 | 46 | LWLLW |
| 6 |  Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 36:35 | +1 | 44 | WLDWL |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37:27 | +10 | 42 | DWWDL |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30:33 | -3 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 9 |  Juventud | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 35 | LLWLL |
| 10 |  Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37:38 | -1 | 34 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 | WWLLL |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 32 | WLDLW |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 23:43 | -20 | 32 | LLLDD |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28:40 | -12 | 30 | WLLDD |
| 15 |  Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 24:38 | -14 | 26 | LWDDL |
| 16 |  Progreso | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23:42 | -19 | 25 | LWDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 46:23 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 44:27 | 52 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 35:22 | 52 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 27 | 47:31 | 50 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 29 | 43:38 | 46 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 29 | 36:35 | 44 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 37:27 | 42 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 29 | 35:39 | 35 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 37:38 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 29 | 28:32 | 33 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25:33 | 32 |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 23:43 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 28:40 | 30 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24:38 | 26 |
| 16 | Progreso | 29 | 23:42 | 25 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 112:57 | +55 | 134 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 66 | 38 | 14 | 14 | 119:71 | +48 | 125 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44:27 | +17 | 52 | LWDWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 65 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 88:64 | +24 | 107 | DWWDL |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 65 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 74:60 | +14 | 105 | WWWWD |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 64 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 101:82 | +19 | 99 | WWWDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 66 | 27 | 15 | 24 | 80:78 | +2 | 96 | LLWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 66 | 25 | 18 | 23 | 67:71 | -4 | 93 | WLDLW |
| 9 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30:33 | -3 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Boston River | 66 | 22 | 19 | 25 | 78:79 | -1 | 85 | WLLDD |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 66 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 69:73 | -4 | 82 | WWLLL |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 21 | 16 | 29 | 56:85 | -29 | 78 | LLLDD |
| 13 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37:38 | -1 | 34 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Wanderers | 66 | 18 | 21 | 27 | 61:82 | -21 | 75 | WLDWL |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 14 | 27 | 25 | 65:79 | -14 | 69 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 66 | 17 | 13 | 36 | 61:102 | -41 | 64 | LWDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 65 | 112:57 | 134 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 66 | 119:71 | 125 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 44:27 | 52 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 65 | 88:64 | 107 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 65 | 74:60 | 105 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 64 | 101:82 | 99 |
| 7 | Juventud | 66 | 80:78 | 96 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 66 | 67:71 | 93 |
| 9 | Central Espanol | 28 | 30:33 | 38 |
| 10 | Boston River | 66 | 78:79 | 85 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 66 | 69:73 | 82 |
| 12 | Cerro | 66 | 56:85 | 78 |
| 13 | Albion FC | 29 | 37:38 | 34 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 66 | 61:82 | 75 |
| 15 | Danubio | 66 | 65:79 | 69 |
| 16 | Progreso | 66 | 61:102 | 64 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | WWLLL |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DWWDL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | LDLWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LLLDD |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WLDLW |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | WLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LWDWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WLDLD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | LDLWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WWWDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WLDLW |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLDWL |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | LWDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | WLLDD |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14:4 | +10 | 15 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:4 | +8 | 13 | DWWDL |
| 3 | Cerro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 13 | LLLDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11:4 | +7 | 12 | WDWWL |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:6 | +4 | 12 | LLWLL |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 | WWWWD |
| 7 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 8 | Club Nacional | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 11 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:10 | -2 | 9 | WLDWL |
| 10 | Progreso | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5:8 | -3 | 9 | LWDDL |
| 11 | Boston River | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 8 | WLLDD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Central Espanol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 5 | LDLWW |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:13 | -7 | 5 | WLDLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2:8 | -6 | 4 | LWDDL |
| 16 | Albion FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5:14 | -9 | 0 | WLDLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 5 | 14:4 | 15 |
| 2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 12:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Cerro | 7 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 11:4 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 10:6 | 12 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 6 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 8 | Club Nacional | 7 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 9 | Wanderers | 7 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 10 | Progreso | 7 | 5:8 | 9 |
| 11 | Boston River | 7 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 13 | Central Espanol | 6 | 3:7 | 5 |
| 14 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:13 | 5 |
| 15 | Danubio | 7 | 2:8 | 4 |
| 16 | Albion FC | 7 | 5:14 | 0 |
PromotionRelegation
Cerro vs Penarol Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Primera División - Apertura fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Primera División - Apertura
ScorePredicts covers Uruguay football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.
Key Factors for This Match
Cerro have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Cerro and Penarol have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.09 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.