Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.65
SignalNEUTRALModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-0.4%
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.40
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+7.4%
Liverpool Montevideo Rest
33 days
Cerro Rest
34 days
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro: result, form and history
Cerro beat Liverpool Montevideo 2-1 in the Primera División - Apertura on 12 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 1.7 goals a game across 7 matches.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
160%1.65
X26%3.48
214%5.28
Double Chance
1X86%1.14
X240%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes49%2.15
No51%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.75 + 0.88 = 2.63
Over 1.573%1.40
Over 2.550%2.25
Over 3.528%4.26
Under 1.527%2.75
Under 2.550%1.60
Under 3.572%1.20
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
20'S. Laquidain
20'B. Aleman
21'A. Miranda
38'L. Acosta
45'R. Bentancourt
55'Y. Irrazabal
65'R. M. Degregorio INT. Brizuela out
65'A. Miranda INB. Morales out
72'D. Suarez
74'C. Barros INA. Severo out
74'M. Ocampo INP. Nongoy out
77'N. Garayalde INR. Machado out
77'R. Bentancourt IND. Zabala out
83'G. Rodriguez INF. Bregante out
84'B. Aleman INJ. Amaro out
87'D. Romero INF. Barcelo out
90'J. Amaro
90+2'T. Brizuela
Lineups
Liverpool MontevideoCerro
Coach: Alejandro ApudLiverpool Montevideo Starting XI
1M. Bernatene
24K. Amaro
15S. Laquidain20'
23E. Castillo
18A. Cayetano
27D. Romero87'replaced by F. Barcelo
5N. Garayalde77'replaced by R. Machado
16L. Acosta38'
10R. M. Degregorio65'replaced by T. Brizuela
7F. Martinez
19R. Bentancourt45'77'replaced by D. Zabala
Cerro Starting XI
12Y. Irrazabal55'
22D. Suarez72'
16J. Guasone
21N. Arena
17G. Rodriguez83'replaced by F. Bregante
32R. Mederos
5A. Macelli
8A. Miranda21'65'replaced by B. Morales
27C. Barros74'replaced by A. Severo
10B. Aleman20'84'replaced by J. Amaro
77M. Ocampo74'replaced by P. Nongoy
Liverpool Montevideo Substitutes
25M. Campana
6S. Milano
34K. Lewis
4F. Perdomo
8M. Mir
26T. Brizuela65'for R. M. Degregorio90+2'
9R. Machado77'for N. Garayalde
22D. Zabala77'for R. Bentancourt
29E. Olivera
32F. Barcelo87'for D. Romero
Cerro Substitutes
7A. Severo74'for C. Barros
40D. Capdevila
4M. Arguello
6F. Bregante83'for G. Rodriguez
19E. Sosa
31J. Amaro84'for B. Aleman90'
35P. Nongoy74'for M. Ocampo
9B. Morales65'for A. Miranda
14N. Soria
3A. Lima
Team Comparison
Liverpool MontevideoCerro1669Elo Rating 1448
1.50Attack 1.19
3.00Defense 0.97
100%Hit Rate 17%
6.7Shots per Game 8.2
3.1Shots on Target 3.9
4.2Corners per Game 3.5
3.9Cards per Game 3.7
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+221 Elo
📈BTTS Trend43% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Liverpool Montevideo- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
Cerro- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings, all competitions
Liverpool Montevideo1Wins · 14%Draws343%
Cerro3Wins · 43%
3Wins · 43%1.7Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
29%3+ goals2 of 7
Previous meetings
20/02/2026CerroLiverpool Montevideo11
25/05/2025Liverpool MontevideoCerro00
22/02/2025Liverpool MontevideoCerro21
21/07/2024Liverpool MontevideoCerro01
03/06/2024Liverpool MontevideoCerro03
08/07/2023CerroLiverpool Montevideo10
24/04/2023Liverpool MontevideoCerro11
Recent Form
Liverpool Montevideo3W3D4L
09/06/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo00
D01/06/2026
Boston RiverLiverpool Montevideo
Boston RiverLiverpool Montevideo01
W23/05/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo00
D16/05/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo21
L09/05/2026
WanderersLiverpool Montevideo
WanderersLiverpool Montevideo10
L02/05/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
Liverpool MontevideoDanubio30
W25/04/2026
JuventudLiverpool Montevideo
JuventudLiverpool Montevideo11
D20/04/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
Liverpool MontevideoClub Nacional13
L14/04/2026PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo02
W05/04/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo Maldonado02
LCerro2W2D6L
07/06/2026CerroPenarol
CerroPenarol01
L30/05/2026Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro20
L24/05/2026Cerro
Central Espanol
CerroCentral Espanol10
W16/05/2026Boston RiverCerro
Boston RiverCerro41
L11/05/2026Club NacionalCerro
Club NacionalCerro40
L02/05/2026CerroDeportivo Maldonado
CerroDeportivo Maldonado01
L26/04/2026Central EspanolCerro
Central EspanolCerro31
L19/04/2026Cerro
Atletico Torque
CerroAtletico Torque11
D11/04/2026Cerro LargoCerro
Cerro LargoCerro11
D05/04/2026Cerro
Defensor Sporting
CerroDefensor Sporting10
WLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 52:28 | +24 | 65 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 59:41 | +18 | 63 | WDLDL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 53:42 | +11 | 61 | LWLLW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 45:31 | +14 | 60 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 47:31 | +16 | 59 | DLWLD |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 42:44 | -2 | 51 | WLLLW |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 37:43 | -6 | 41 | DDWLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 35:43 | -8 | 39 | WDWLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 35:43 | -8 | 38 | WLLDD |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 34:47 | -13 | 37 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 29:53 | -24 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 15 |  Progreso | 36 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 36 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 29:45 | -16 | 32 | WDDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 52:28 | 65 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 59:41 | 63 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 45:31 | 60 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 47:31 | 59 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 42:44 | 51 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 37:43 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 35:43 | 39 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 36 | 35:43 | 38 |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 34:47 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 29:53 | 37 |
| 15 | Progreso | 36 | 33:51 | 36 |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 29:45 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | 118:62 | +56 | 144 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | 129:75 | +54 | 140 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | 98:68 | +30 | 124 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 84:69 | +15 | 113 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | 113:92 | +21 | 112 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 82:82 | 0 | 102 | DDWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 77:81 | -4 | 100 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | 84:86 | -2 | 92 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 73 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 76:84 | -8 | 87 | WLLDD |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | 62:95 | -33 | 83 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 67:91 | -24 | 82 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | 70:86 | -16 | 75 | WDDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 73 | 20 | 15 | 38 | 71:111 | -40 | 75 | LLWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 118:62 | 144 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 129:75 | 140 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 98:68 | 124 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 84:69 | 113 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 113:92 | 112 |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 82:82 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 77:81 | 100 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 84:86 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 73 | 76:84 | 87 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 62:95 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 67:91 | 82 |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 70:86 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 73 | 71:111 | 75 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | WLLDD |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WDWLD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | LWLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DLWLD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | WLLDD |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LDDWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 26:14 | +12 | 28 | WDLDL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | +6 | 26 | LWLLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 22 | LDWWL |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17:9 | +8 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Progreso | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15:17 | -2 | 20 | LLWLL |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | +4 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12:10 | +2 | 18 | DDWLL |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 18 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14:19 | -5 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:17 | -2 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 13 | WWWDD |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 12 | WDWLD |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 12:19 | -7 | 10 | WLLDD |
| 15 | Danubio | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 10 | WDDDL |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8:22 | -14 | 8 | WLDWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 22:8 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 26:14 | 28 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 19:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 18:10 | 22 |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 17:9 | 22 |
| 6 | Progreso | 14 | 15:17 | 20 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 14:19 | 16 |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 16:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 14 | 12:19 | 10 |
| 15 | Danubio | 13 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 8:22 | 8 |
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About the Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro forecast
Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Liverpool Montevideo and Cerro in the Primera División - Apertura table
In the Primera División - Apertura table, Liverpool Montevideo are 6th and Cerro 14th, 22 points apart. League goal record so far: Liverpool Montevideo 47-31, Cerro 29-53. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Liverpool Montevideo have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.