Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction

Chelsea
4-3
Finished
HT 3-1
Brighton
Stamford Bridge, London· Michael Oliver, England 30/08/2026
ChelseaChelsea
4-3
Finished
BrightonBrighton

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
1.84
SignalGOODModel43%RiskHighGap+12.8%
Chelsea Rest
2 days
Brighton Rest
2 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
40%1.90
X
27%3.90
2
33%3.95
Double Chance
1X
67%1.25
X2
60%1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%1.57
No
39%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 1.49 = 2.88
Over 1.5
79%1.19
Over 2.5
57%1.65
Over 3.5
35%2.50
Under 1.5
21%4.45
Under 2.5
43%2.26
Under 3.5
65%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 4.9 = 9.2
Over 8.5
58%1.44
Over 9.5
46%1.74
Over 10.5
34%2.12
Under 8.5
42%2.58
Under 9.5
54%1.98
Under 10.5
66%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.5
57%1.53
Over 4.5
35%1.99
Under 3.5
43%2.37
Under 4.5
65%1.72

Match Events

4'R. Lavia
14'P. NetoAssist: M. Rogers
32'Joao PedroAssist: J. Hato
35'M. Yalcouye
55'W. FofanaTripping
63'Joao PedroOG
68'R. Lavia INR. James out
68'W. Fofana INJ. Acheampong out
68'P. Neto INM. Caicedo out
70'L. DunkTripping
72'L. Colwill INP. Chavarria out
74'M. Yalcouye INI. Osman out
74'C. PalmerAssist: Joao Pedro
80'C. Kostoulas INP. David out
80'M. Wieffer INCostinha out
82'M. Caicedo INV. Barco out
89'O. BoscagliFoul
90+1'CostinhaHolding
90+6'P. Gross

Lineups

Chelsea
3-4-2-1Coach: Xabi Alonso
Brighton
4-2-3-1Coach: Fabian Hurzeler
Emiliano Martínez26E. MartínezEmiliano Martínez
Wesley Fofana3W. FofanaWesley Fofana
Maxence Lacroix5M. LacroixMaxence Lacroix
Levi Colwill6L. ColwillLevi Colwill
Pedro Neto7P. NetoPedro Neto
Malo Gusto27M. GustoMalo Gusto
Roméo Lavia45R. LaviaRoméo Lavia
Jorrel Hato21J. HatoJorrel Hato
Cole Palmer10C. PalmerCole Palmer
Morgan Rogers17M. RogersMorgan Rogers
João Pedro9J. PedroJoão Pedro
Bart Verbruggen1B. VerbruggenBart Verbruggen
Mats Wieffer27M. WiefferMats Wieffer
Luka Vušković44L. VuškovićLuka Vušković
Lewis Dunk5L. DunkLewis Dunk
Ferdi Kadıoğlu24F. KadıoğluFerdi Kadıoğlu
Pascal Groß13P. GroßPascal Groß
Olivier Boscagli21O. BoscagliOlivier Boscagli
Diego Gómez25D. GómezDiego Gómez
Malick Yalcouyé35M. YalcouyéMalick Yalcouyé
Maxim De Cuyper29M. De CuyperMaxim De Cuyper
Charalampos Kostoulas19C. KostoulasCharalampos Kostoulas

Chelsea Substitutes

34Josh AcheampongD
24Reece JamesD
25Moisés CaicedoM
29Pep ChavarríaD
39Mike PendersG
4Valentín BarcoM
41EstêvãoF
11Jamie GittensF
18Danny WelbeckF

Brighton Substitutes

23Jason SteeleG
4Pascal StruijkD
6Jaouen HadjamD
20CostinhaD
15Ibrahim OsmanF
22Amario Cozier-DuberryM
33Matt O'RileyM
12Promise DavidF
49Nehemiah OriolaF

Match Stats

ChelseaBrighton
26%Ball Possession74%
4Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards3
17Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal8
15Shots Inside Box12
2Shots Outside Box2
6Blocked Shots1
6Fouls12
4Goalkeeper Saves1
214Total Passes620
146Passes Accurate544
68%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

ChelseaChelsea
BrightonBrighton
1843Elo Rating 1867
3.05Attack 3.39
0.89Defense 1.99
54%Hit Rate 58%
15.2Shots per Game 19.5
6.4Shots on Target 6.2
6.2Corners per Game 5.6
1.4Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

High Goal Expectancy2.89 goals
📈BTTS Trend54% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

ChelseaChelsea
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.1 vs 1 in first half)
BrightonBrighton
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 1.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Chelsea 14%Draw 0%86% Brighton
3.65Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5

Recent Form

ChelseaChelsea
4W1D0L
27/08/2026
ChelseaLuton
20
W
24/08/2026
FulhamChelsea
23
W
15/08/2026
ChelseaReal Sociedad
31
W
09/08/2026
Johor Darul Takzim FCChelsea
33
D
08/08/2026
ChelseaAC Milan
30
W
BrightonBrighton
4W1D0L

Referee Profile

Michael Oliver, England · 32 matches analysed

3.4Avg Yellows
3.5Avg Cards
22.6Avg Fouls
Stricter than 5% of referees analysed

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal44008:1+712WWWW
2Manchester CityManchester City44008:2+612WWWW
3LeedsLeeds42207:3+48WDDW
4Hull CityHull City42205:2+38DDWW
5BrightonBrighton421113:5+87WDLW
6ChelseaChelsea421110:9+17DLWW
7BrentfordBrentford41307:4+36DDDW
8LiverpoolLiverpool41306:4+26DWDD
9EvertonEverton41305:3+26DDDW
10IpswichIpswich42027:10-36WLLW
11Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest41214:405WDDL
12NewcastleNewcastle41217:8-15LDWD
13Manchester UnitedManchester United41127:704LDWL
14SunderlandSunderland41123:5-24LDWL
15BournemouthBournemouth40316:7-13DDDL
16Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace41036:11-53LWLL
17TottenhamTottenham40220:5-52DDLL
18FulhamFulham40134:7-31DLLL
19Aston VillaAston Villa40131:7-61LDLL
20CoventryCoventry40040:10-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal48:112
2Manchester CityManchester City48:212
3LeedsLeeds47:38
4Hull CityHull City45:28
5BrightonBrighton413:57
6ChelseaChelsea410:97
7BrentfordBrentford47:46
8LiverpoolLiverpool46:46
9EvertonEverton45:36
10IpswichIpswich47:106
11Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest44:45
12NewcastleNewcastle47:85
13Manchester UnitedManchester United47:74
14SunderlandSunderland43:54
15BournemouthBournemouth46:73
16Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace46:113
17TottenhamTottenham40:52
18FulhamFulham44:71
19Aston VillaAston Villa41:71
20CoventryCoventry40:100
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Chelsea vs Brighton Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Premier League fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Premier League

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Key Factors for This Match

Brighton have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Chelsea and Brighton have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.65 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.