Cheltenham vs Chesterfield Prediction

Cheltenham
2-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Chesterfield
Whaddon Road, Cheltenham 26/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
65%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.33
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-10.5%
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Over 4.5
1.74
SignalSOLIDModel62%SurpriseMediumGap+7.6%
Cheltenham Rest
3 days
Chesterfield Rest
3 days

Cheltenham vs Chesterfield: the result in context

Cheltenham beat Chesterfield 2-1 in the League Two on 26 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 4 previous meetings produced 1.5 goals a game. Chesterfield tend to win more corners, 9.1 a game to 5.1 for Cheltenham.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
31%3.04
X
26%3.62
2
43%2.11
Double Chance
1X
57%1.65
X2
69%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.59
No
42%2.21
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 1.47 = 2.70
Over 1.5
78%1.20
Over 2.5
55%1.72
Over 3.5
33%2.75
Under 1.5
22%4.00
Under 2.5
45%2.07
Under 3.5
67%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 5 = 9.8
Over 8.5
63%1.62
Over 9.5
51%2.00
Over 10.5
40%2.52
Under 8.5
37%2.18
Under 9.5
49%1.73
Under 10.5
60%1.44
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.8 = 3.7
Over 3.5
51%-
Over 4.5
32%-
Under 3.5
49%-
Under 4.5
68%-

Match Events

12'Pierce SweeneyFoul
17'Charlie McCannAssist: Ryan Broom
37'Andreas WeimannAssist: Jonathan Tomkinson
49'Louie Marsh
55'Jordan ShipleyFoul
59'Jake Evans INJames Wilson out
70'Lee Bonis INF. Bryden out
78'Pierce Sweeney INGeorge Miller out
78'Joel Randall INLiam Mandeville out
78'Lewis Gordon INTom Pearce out
78'George McEachran INKiano Dyer out
84'Andreas WeimannDissent
86'Andreas Weimann INJake Bickerstaff out
87'Ryan Broom INK. Otchere out
87'Jordan Shipley INFreddie willcox out
87'Louie Marsh INTom Naylor out
89'Freddie willcoxFoul

Lineups

Cheltenham
4-1-4-1Coach: S. Cotterill
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1Coach: P. Cook
Avg rating6.71
Avg rating6.55
W. Stanway8.623W. Stanway
J. Tomkinson6.63J. Tomkinson
R. Cundy6.85R. Cundy
P. Sweeney6.425P. Sweeney
J. Tomlinson6.54J. Tomlinson
B. Stevenson6.47B. Stevenson
J. Evans6.719J. Evans
R. Broom7.014R. Broom
C. McCann7.08C. McCann
J. Shipley6.226J. Shipley
A. Weimann7.418A. Weimann
R. Boot5.823R. Boot
R. Hutton7.533R. Hutton
K. McFadzean6.75K. McFadzean
J. Simpson7.16J. Simpson
L. Gordon6.619L. Gordon
G. McEachran6.520G. McEachran
R. Stirk7.18R. Stirk
D. Markanday6.624D. Markanday
L. Marsh8.218L. Marsh
J. Randall6.431J. Randall
L. Bonis6.410L. Bonis

Cheltenham Substitutes

11J. Bickerstaff86'for Andreas Weimann6.5
1J. Day
10G. Miller78'for Pierce Sweeney6.1
21G. Nurse
33F. Willcox87'for Jordan Shipley89'6.1
6J. Wilson59'for Jake Evans6.9
9K. Otchere87'for Ryan Broom6.3

Chesterfield Substitutes

11D. Duffy
27K. Dyer78'for George McEachran6.0
7L. Mandeville78'for Joel Randall6.0
4T. Naylor87'for Louie Marsh5.7
46T. Pearce78'for Lewis Gordon6.2
26J. Eccleston
9F. Bryden70'for Lee Bonis6.1

Match Stats

CheltenhamChesterfield
34%Ball Possession66%
2Corner Kicks11
4Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots27
3Shots on Goal11
2Shots off Goal9
5Shots Inside Box17
2Shots Outside Box10
2Blocked Shots7
9Fouls6
0Offsides2
10Goalkeeper Saves1
319Total Passes607
212Passes Accurate508
6Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

CheltenhamCheltenham
ChesterfieldChesterfield
1491Elo Rating 1574
1.70Attack 1.46
0.54Defense 1.50
27%Hit Rate 17%
9.2Shots per Game 18.7
3.4Shots on Target 6.0
5.1Corners per Game 9.1
2.5Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend25% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CheltenhamCheltenham
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ChesterfieldChesterfield
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

CheltenhamCheltenham1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
ChesterfieldChesterfield2Wins · 50%
1.5Avg Goals
25%Both teams scored1 of 4
0%3+ goals0 of 4

Previous meetings

League Two03/04/2026
ChesterfieldCheltenham
10
League Two09/08/2025
CheltenhamChesterfield
02
League Two01/02/2025
CheltenhamChesterfield
10
League Two21/09/2024
ChesterfieldCheltenham
11

Recent Form

CheltenhamCheltenham
4W3D3L
22/09/2026
CheltenhamExeter City
4232
W
19/09/2026
ColchesterCheltenham
11
D
12/09/2026
Crawley TownCheltenham
13
W
05/09/2026
CheltenhamGrimsby
22
D
01/09/2026
CheltenhamYork
32
W
29/08/2026
BarnetCheltenham
22
D
22/08/2026
Swindon TownCheltenham
21
L
15/08/2026
CheltenhamRotherham
21
W
08/08/2026
CheltenhamCharlton
13
L
01/08/2026
CheltenhamMilton Keynes Dons
02
L
ChesterfieldChesterfield
5W2D3L
22/09/2026
ChesterfieldPort Vale
4131
W
19/09/2026
ChesterfieldYork
20
W
15/09/2026
ChesterfieldManchester City U21
53
W
12/09/2026
OldhamChesterfield
12
W
05/09/2026
ChesterfieldBarnet
33
D
01/09/2026
ChesterfieldGillingham
11
D
29/08/2026
RotherhamChesterfield
21
L
22/08/2026
Salford CityChesterfield
01
W
15/08/2026
ChesterfieldFleetwood Town
01
L
08/08/2026
Fleetwood TownChesterfield
10
L

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City1281319:12+725WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1063123:15+821LWWWW
3CreweCrewe1256115:11+421LWWWD
4WalsallWalsall1147016:7+919WDDDW
5CheltenhamCheltenham1253421:22-118WLLLW
6YorkYork1145219:13+617DDDWL
7GillinghamGillingham1245317:14+317DLWDL
8ShrewsburyShrewsbury1252513:17-417WWLWD
9ChesterfieldChesterfield1244418:16+216DLDWL
10Exeter CityExeter City124448:6+216WDWWL
11Accrington STAccrington ST1236317:16+115DWDWD
12Newport CountyNewport County1236316:15+115DDWDW
13TranmereTranmere1236315:15015WLDLD
14RochdaleRochdale1243515:17-215DLDWW
15Swindon TownSwindon Town1243513:16-315WDLLD
16Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1250716:20-415LLLLW
17GrimsbyGrimsby1235415:15014DLLLL
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1235414:15-114LWDLL
19ColchesterColchester1126311:14-312DDLDD
20Port ValePort Vale103346:10-412DWWLW
21OldhamOldham1132613:17-411LWDLL
22RotherhamRotherham1225514:20-611DLLLD
23NorthamptonNorthampton102446:8-210LWDLL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1012711:20-95LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1219:1225
2BarnetBarnet1023:1521
3CreweCrewe1215:1121
4WalsallWalsall1116:719
5CheltenhamCheltenham1221:2218
6YorkYork1119:1317
7GillinghamGillingham1217:1417
8ShrewsburyShrewsbury1213:1717
9ChesterfieldChesterfield1218:1616
10Exeter CityExeter City128:616
11Accrington STAccrington ST1217:1615
12Newport CountyNewport County1216:1515
13TranmereTranmere1215:1515
14RochdaleRochdale1215:1715
15Swindon TownSwindon Town1213:1615
16Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1216:2015
17GrimsbyGrimsby1215:1514
18Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1214:1514
19ColchesterColchester1111:1412
20Port ValePort Vale106:1012
21OldhamOldham1113:1711
22RotherhamRotherham1214:2011
23NorthamptonNorthampton106:810
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1011:205
PromotionRelegation

About the Cheltenham vs Chesterfield forecast

The forecasts for this League Two match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cheltenham and Chesterfield in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Cheltenham are 5th and Chesterfield 9th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Cheltenham 21-22, Chesterfield 18-16. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Chesterfield have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.