Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Prediction

Swindon Town
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Cheltenham
County Ground, Swindon·C. Hicks 22/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
74%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.35
SignalHIGHModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+5.2%
Swindon Town Rest
7 days
Cheltenham Rest
7 days

Swindon Town vs Cheltenham: result, form and history

Swindon Town beat Cheltenham 2-1 in the League Two on 22 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%1.78
X
25%3.62
2
27%4.20
Double Chance
1X
73%1.19
X2
52%1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.71
No
49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.55 + 0.94 = 2.49
Over 1.5
70%1.24
Over 2.5
47%1.80
Over 3.5
27%2.90
Under 1.5
30%3.67
Under 2.5
53%1.95
Under 3.5
73%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 4.5 = 9.5
Over 8.5
60%1.45
Over 9.5
51%1.75
Over 10.5
40%2.25
Under 8.5
40%2.48
Under 9.5
49%1.95
Under 10.5
60%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.8 = 3.3
Over 3.5
35%-
Over 4.5
19%-
Under 3.5
65%-
Under 4.5
81%-

Match Events

4'M. Virtue-ThickFoul
17'A. DrinanAssist: A. Munda
46'J. Pearman INO. Palmer out
53'B. Middlemas INL. Millard out
55'O. ClarkeAssist: S. Negru
61'R. Tafazolli INK. Majekodunmi out
61'O. Clarke INT. Nichols out
63'K. Otchere INA. Weimann out
71'G. Nurse INJ. Bickerstaff out
71'J. Shipley INR. Broom out
85'R. BroomAssist: P. Sweeney
85'M. Virtue-Thick INJ. Debayo out
85'J. Evans INF. Willcox out
90+2'J. BickerstaffDiving

Lineups

Swindon Town
4-2-3-1Coach: Scott Holloway Ian
Cheltenham
4-1-4-1Coach: Steve Cotterill
Avg rating6.98
Avg rating6.43
Connor Ripley7.01C. Ripley
Mitchell Clark6.32M. Clark
Stephan Negru7.95S. Negru
Ryan Tafazolli7.517R. Tafazolli
Billy Kirkman8.034B. Kirkman
Anthony Munda7.227A. Munda
Ben Middlemas6.720B. Middlemas
Matthew Virtue-Thick6.224M. Virtue-Thick
Ollie ClarkeC8.08O. Clarke
Jaylan Pearman6.922J. Pearman
Aaron Drinan7.323A. Drinan
Wyll Stanway6.223W. Stanway
Jonathan Tomkinson6.33J. Tomkinson
Robbie Cundy6.65R. Cundy
Pierce Sweeney6.725P. Sweeney
George Nurse6.221G. Nurse
Ben StevensonC6.97B. Stevenson
Jake Evans6.519J. Evans
Joseph Tomlinson6.34J. Tomlinson
Charlie McCann6.08C. McCann
Jordan Shipley6.226J. Shipley
Kirsten Otchere5.99K. Otchere

Swindon Town Substitutes

28Ollie Palmer46'for J. Pearman6.3
39Louis Millard53'for B. Middlemas6.5
21Kaelan Majekodunmi61'for R. Tafazolli6.3
7Tom Nichols61'for O. Clarke6.9
18James Debayo85'for M. Virtue-Thick6.6
12Lewis Ward
38Lucas Griffiths-Brown

Cheltenham Substitutes

18Andreas Weimann63'for K. Otchere6.2
14Ryan Broom71'for J. Shipley85'7.2
11Jake Bickerstaff71'for G. Nurse90+2'6.6
33Freddie Willcox85'for J. Evans6.7
1Joe Day
35Mark Barber

Match Stats

Swindon TownCheltenham
42%Ball Possession58%
2Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards1
5Total Shots14
3Shots on Goal6
1Shots off Goal4
2Shots Inside Box9
3Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots4
7Fouls12
5Goalkeeper Saves1
342Total Passes464
232Passes Accurate347
68%Pass Accuracy75%

Team Comparison

Swindon TownSwindon Town
CheltenhamCheltenham
1539Elo Rating 1481
1.29Attack 1.44
2.23Defense 0.86
46%Hit Rate 42%
12.8Shots per Game 8.3
3.7Shots on Target 2.4
4.4Corners per Game 3.9
1.1Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Swindon TownSwindon Town
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
CheltenhamCheltenham
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

Swindon TownSwindon Town2Wins · 34%
Draws233%
CheltenhamCheltenham2Wins · 33%
2.8Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

League Two29/12/2025
CheltenhamSwindon Town
02
League Two09/12/2025
Swindon TownCheltenham
01
League Two15/03/2025
Swindon TownCheltenham
33
League Two12/10/2024
CheltenhamSwindon Town
23
FA Cup19/11/2019
Swindon TownCheltenham
01
FA Cup09/11/2019
CheltenhamSwindon Town
11

Recent Form

Swindon TownSwindon Town
3W1D6L
15/08/2026
NorthamptonSwindon Town
00
D
08/08/2026
CardiffSwindon Town
32
L
01/08/2026
Forest GreenSwindon Town
14
W
28/07/2026
Swindon TownLeyton Orient
21
W
25/07/2026
Swindon TownBristol City
13
L
18/07/2026
Crystal PalaceSwindon Town
51
L
14/07/2026
Swindon TownChippenham Town
01
L
04/07/2026
Swindon TownSwindon Supermarine
40
W
02/05/2026
Swindon TownChesterfield
12
L
25/04/2026
GrimsbySwindon Town
40
L
CheltenhamCheltenham
5W0D5L
15/08/2026
CheltenhamRotherham
21
W
08/08/2026
CheltenhamCharlton
13
L
01/08/2026
CheltenhamMilton Keynes Dons
02
L
18/07/2026
Evesham UnitedCheltenham
03
W
02/05/2026
CheltenhamColchester
14
L
25/04/2026
Bristol RoversCheltenham
40
L
21/04/2026
CheltenhamTranmere
13
L
18/04/2026
CheltenhamNewport County
10
W
14/04/2026
CheltenhamGillingham
21
W
11/04/2026
WalsallCheltenham
04
W

Referee Profile

C. Hicks158 matches

3.30Cards per match
3.19Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

C. Hicks3.30
Other referees3.72

3.30 cards a match, 0.42 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.72).

Cards come from 149 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

League Two 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Salford CitySalford City14101325:15+1031WWWWW
2BarnetBarnet1375128:18+1026DWDLW
3WalsallWalsall1357121:12+922WLWDD
4CreweCrewe1457217:17022DLLWW
5CheltenhamCheltenham1463523:25-221LWWLL
6GrimsbyGrimsby1455424:18+620WWDLL
7YorkYork1455424:21+320LLWDD
8GillinghamGillingham1455420:19+120WLDLW
9Accrington STAccrington ST1447323:17+619DWDWD
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1454524:21+319LWDLD
11TranmereTranmere1447319:17+219WDWLD
12Exeter CityExeter City1454511:9+219LWWDW
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1454515:17-219WDWDL
14Newport CountyNewport County1446420:17+318WLDDW
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1453617:22-518LDWWL
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1445518:18017WLLWD
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1451817:23-616LDLLL
18OldhamOldham1443715:19-415WLDLW
19Port ValePort Vale1243510:14-415WLDWW
20RochdaleRochdale1443717:26-915LLDLD
21NorthamptonNorthampton133559:10-114LDWLW
22RotherhamRotherham1426618:25-712LDDLL
23ColchesterColchester1326512:19-712LLDDL
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1223713:21-89WDLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1Salford CitySalford City1425:1531
2BarnetBarnet1328:1826
3WalsallWalsall1321:1222
4CreweCrewe1417:1722
5CheltenhamCheltenham1423:2521
6GrimsbyGrimsby1424:1820
7YorkYork1424:2120
8GillinghamGillingham1420:1920
9Accrington STAccrington ST1423:1719
10ChesterfieldChesterfield1424:2119
11TranmereTranmere1419:1719
12Exeter CityExeter City1411:919
13Swindon TownSwindon Town1415:1719
14Newport CountyNewport County1420:1718
15ShrewsburyShrewsbury1417:2218
16Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town1418:1817
17Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1417:2316
18OldhamOldham1415:1915
19Port ValePort Vale1210:1415
20RochdaleRochdale1417:2615
21NorthamptonNorthampton139:1014
22RotherhamRotherham1418:2512
23ColchesterColchester1312:1912
24Crawley TownCrawley Town1213:219
PromotionRelegation

About the Swindon Town vs Cheltenham forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Swindon Town and Cheltenham in the League Two table

In the League Two table, Cheltenham are 5th and Swindon Town 13th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Swindon Town 15-17, Cheltenham 23-25. The full standings are on the League Two Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Swindon Town have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.