England vs Croatia Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 1
Cup
England
4-2
Finished
HT 2-2
Croatia
AT&T Stadium, Arlington· Clement Turpin, France 17/06/2026
EnglandEngland
4-2
Finished
CroatiaCroatia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
66%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.71
SignalSTRONGModel72%RiskMediumGap+10.3%
England Rest
7 days
Croatia Rest
10 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.71
X
26%3.73
2
8%5.22
Double Chance
1X
92%1.17
X2
34%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.95
No
48%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 0.82 = 2.52
Over 1.5
72%1.33
Over 2.5
46%2.06
Over 3.5
24%3.63
Under 1.5
28%3.29
Under 2.5
54%1.78
Under 3.5
76%1.28
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4 = 9.5
Over 8.5
53%1.80
Over 9.5
47%2.25
Over 10.5
34%3.05
Under 8.5
47%1.93
Under 9.5
53%1.59
Under 10.5
66%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.8 = 3.3
Over 3.5
57%2.82
Over 4.5
34%4.00
Under 3.5
43%1.38
Under 4.5
66%1.22

Match Events

12'H. Kane(Penalty)
36'M. BaturinaAssist: P. Sucic
42'H. KaneAssist: D. Rice
45+5'P. MusaAssist: I. Perisic
47'J. BellinghamAssist: E. Anderson
58'L. Modric INM. Kovacic out
66'L. Vuskovic INM. Pasalic out
66'P. Musa INI. Matanovic out
72'A. Gordon INM. Rashford out
72'N. Madueke INB. Saka out
72'D. Rice INM. Rogers out
78'M. Baturina INN. Vlasic out
79'M. Pasalic INA. Kramaric out
80'J. Bellingham IND. Spence out
85'M. RashfordAssist: B. Saka
87'J. Stones INM. Guehi out

Lineups

England
4-2-3-1Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Croatia
3-4-2-1Coach: Zlatko Dalic
Jordan Pickford1J. PickfordJordan Pickford
Reece James24R. JamesReece James
Ezri Konsa2E. KonsaEzri Konsa
John Stones5J. StonesJohn Stones
Nico O'Reilly3N. O'ReillyNico O'Reilly
Elliot Anderson8E. AndersonElliot Anderson
Declan Rice4D. RiceDeclan Rice
Noni Madueke20N. MaduekeNoni Madueke
Jude Bellingham10J. BellinghamJude Bellingham
Anthony Gordon18A. GordonAnthony Gordon
Harry Kane9H. KaneHarry Kane
Dominik Livaković1D. LivakovićDominik Livaković
Josip Šutalo6J. ŠutaloJosip Šutalo
Luka Vušković22L. VuškovićLuka Vušković
Joško Gvardiol4J. GvardiolJoško Gvardiol
Josip Stanišić2J. StanišićJosip Stanišić
Luka Modrić10L. ModrićLuka Modrić
Mario Pašalić15M. PašalićMario Pašalić
Ivan Perišić14I. PerišićIvan Perišić
Petar Sučić17P. SučićPetar Sučić
Martin Baturina16M. BaturinaMartin Baturina
Petar Musa26P. MusaPetar Musa

England Substitutes

13Dean HendersonG
23James TraffordG
15Dan BurnD
25Djed SpenceD
26Jarell QuansahD
6Marc GuéhiD
21Eberechi EzeM
14Jordan HendersonM
16Kobbie MainooM
17Morgan RogersM
7Bukayo SakaF
22Ivan ToneyF
11Marcus RashfordF
19Ollie WatkinsF

Croatia Substitutes

8Mateo KovačićM
24Marco PašalićF
20Igor MatanovićF
23Dominik KotarskiG
12Ivor PandurG
5Duje Ćaleta-CarD
3Marin PongračićD
25Martin ErlićD
18Kristijan JakićM
21Luka SučićM
7Nikola MoroM
13Nikola VlašićM
19Toni FrukM
9Andrej KramarićF
11Ante BudimirF

Match Stats

EnglandCroatia
52%Ball Possession48%
8Corner Kicks1
21Total Shots8
11Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal3
19Shots Inside Box3
2Shots Outside Box5
5Blocked Shots0
9Fouls11
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves7
469Total Passes429
402Passes Accurate368
86%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

EnglandEngland
CroatiaCroatia
1880Elo Rating 1753
2.82Attack 1.68
0.80Defense 1.29
58%Hit Rate 56%
13.5Shots per Game 9.7
7.2Shots on Target 4.5
3.3Corners per Game 2.8
0.7Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+127 Elo
📈BTTS Trend46% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

EnglandEngland
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.2 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
CroatiaCroatia
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 4 historical meetings

England 58%Draw 42%0% Croatia
1.5Avg Goals
46%BTTS Rate
27%Over 2.5

Recent Form

EnglandEngland
5W0D0L
10/06/2026
EnglandCosta Rica
30
W
06/06/2026
EnglandNew Zealand
10
W
16/11/2025
AlbaniaEngland
02
W
13/11/2025
EnglandSerbia
20
W
14/10/2025
LatviaEngland
05
W
CroatiaCroatia
4W0D1L
07/06/2026
CroatiaSlovenia
21
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
L
17/11/2025
MontenegroCroatia
23
W
14/11/2025
CroatiaFaroe Islands
31
W
12/10/2025
CroatiaGibraltar
30
W

Referee Profile

Clement Turpin, France · 15 matches analysed

3.3Avg Yellows
3.4Avg Cards
23.9Avg Fouls
Stricter than 2% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1EnglandEngland32106:2+47WDW
2CroatiaCroatia32015:506WWL
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4PanamaPanama30030:4-40LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1EnglandEngland36:27
2CroatiaCroatia35:56
3GhanaGhana32:24
4PanamaPanama30:40

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0

England vs Croatia Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. England and Croatia have met 4 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.