Mexico vs South Korea Prediction

Mexico
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
South Korea
Estadio Akron, Guadalajara·Gustavo Tejera, Uruguay 19/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.39
SignalGOODModel16%SurpriseHighGap+5.4%
Mexico Rest
7 days
South Korea Rest
6 days

Mexico vs South Korea: the result in context

Mexico beat South Korea 1-0 in the World Cup on 19 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

South Korea tend to win more corners, 6.4 a game to 1.8 for Mexico.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
41%2.09
X
26%3.25
2
33%3.90
Double Chance
1X
68%1.25
X2
59%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.92
No
47%1.80
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.32 + 1.25 = 2.57
Over 1.5
72%1.39
Over 2.5
45%2.25
Over 3.5
24%4.10
Under 1.5
28%2.92
Under 2.5
55%1.66
Under 3.5
76%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 5.2 = 10
Over 8.5
53%1.88
Over 9.5
47%2.44
Over 10.5
34%3.20
Under 8.5
47%1.86
Under 9.5
53%1.50
Under 10.5
66%1.28
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
59%2.10
Over 4.5
36%3.23
Under 3.5
41%1.66
Under 4.5
64%1.30

Match Events

4'Lee Kang-InFoul
50'L. Romo
57'Lee Jae-Sung INHwang Hee-Chan out
57'Son Heung-Min INOh Hyeon-Gyu out
58'Paik Seung-HoFoul
71'B. Gutierrez INO. Pineda out
71'L. Romo INO. Vargas out
71'Seol Young-Woo INYang Hyun-Jun out
71'Kim Moon-Hwan INEom Ji-Sung out
77'Paik Seung-Ho INCho Gue-Sung out
80'R. Jimenez INS. Gimenez out
80'R. Alvarado INI. Reyes out
84'J. Quinones INC. S. Huerta Valera out

Lineups

Mexico
4-3-3Coach: Javier Aguirre
South Korea
3-4-2-1Coach: Myung-Bo Hong
Avg rating6.80
Avg rating6.56
Raúl Rangel7.31R. Rangel
Jorge Sánchez6.72J. Sánchez
Edson ÁlvarezC7.24E. Álvarez
Johan Vásquez7.05J. Vásquez
Jesús Gallardo7.023J. Gallardo
Brian Gutiérrez7.326B. Gutiérrez
Erik Lira6.36E. Lira
Luis Romo8.07L. Romo
Roberto Alvarado6.625R. Alvarado
Raúl Jiménez6.59R. Jiménez
Julián Quiñones6.716J. Quiñones
Kim Seung-gyu6.51K. Seung-gyu
Han-Beom Lee6.32H. Lee
Kim Min-jae7.04K. Min-jae
Gi-Hyuk Lee7.03G. Lee
Kim Moon-hwan6.315K. Moon-hwan
Hwang In-beom6.36H. In-beom
Seung Ho Paik6.28S. Ho Paik
Young-woo Seol6.222Y. Seol
Kang-in Lee6.919K. Lee
Jae-sung Lee6.610J. Lee
Son Heung-minC6.67S. Heung-min

Mexico Substitutes

17Orbelín Pineda71'for B. Gutierrez6.2
18Obed Vargas71'for L. Romo6.9
15Israel Reyes80'for R. Alvarado6.6
11Santiago Giménez80'for R. Jimenez6.2
21César Huerta84'for J. Quinones6.3
12Carlos Acevedo
13Guillermo Ochoa
20Mateo Chávez
8Álvaro Fidalgo
19Gilberto Mora
24Luis Chávez
10Alexis Vega
14Armando González
22Guillermo Martínez

South Korea Substitutes

11Hwang Hee-chan57'for Lee Jae-Sung6.7
18Hyeon-gyu Oh57'for Son Heung-Min6.2
25Ji-sung Eom71'for Kim Moon-Hwan7.3
20Yang Hyun-Jun71'for Seol Young-Woo6.6
9Gue-sung Cho77'for Paik Seung-Ho6.3
12Song Bum-keun
21Jo Hyeonwoo
5Kim Tae-hyeon
14Wi-je Cho
13Lee Tae-seok
16Jin-seob Park
23Jens Castrop
17Jun-Ho Bae
24Jin-gyu Kim
26Dong-gyeong Lee

Match Stats

MexicoSouth Korea
42%Ball Possession58%
0Corner Kicks2
0Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots9
4Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal4
5Shots Inside Box6
3Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots3
9Fouls7
3Offsides6
2Goalkeeper Saves3
427Total Passes578
349Passes Accurate488
82%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

MexicoMexico
South KoreaSouth Korea
1788Elo Rating 1730
2.03Attack 1.33
2.19Defense 2.31
73%Hit Rate 50%
12.5Shots per Game 12.9
4.0Shots on Target 4.7
1.8Corners per Game 6.4
0.7Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MexicoMexico
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
South KoreaSouth Korea
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

MexicoMexico1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
South KoreaSouth Korea0Wins · 0%
3.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

World Cup23/06/2018
South KoreaMexico
12

Recent Form

MexicoMexico
9W1D0L
11/06/2026
MexicoSouth Africa
20
W
05/06/2026
MexicoSerbia
51
W
31/05/2026
MexicoAustralia
10
W
23/05/2026
MexicoGhana
20
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
W
03/07/2025
MexicoHonduras
10
W
29/06/2025
MexicoSaudi Arabia
20
W
23/06/2025
MexicoCosta Rica
00
D
19/06/2025
SurinameMexico
02
W
15/06/2025
MexicoDominican Republic
32
W
South KoreaSouth Korea
7W3D0L
12/06/2026
South KoreaCzechia
21
W
04/06/2026
South KoreaEl Salvador
10
W
31/05/2026
South KoreaTrinidad and Tobago
50
W
10/06/2025
South KoreaKuwait
40
W
05/06/2025
IraqSouth Korea
02
W
25/03/2025
South KoreaJordan
11
D
20/03/2025
South KoreaOman
11
D
19/11/2024
PalestineSouth Korea
11
D
14/11/2024
KuwaitSouth Korea
13
W
15/10/2024
South KoreaIraq
32
W

Referee Profile

Gustavo Tejera161 matches

5.05Cards per match
4.86Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
25.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gustavo Tejera5.05
Other referees5.36

5.05 cards a match, 0.31 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.36).

Cards come from 85 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1MexicoMexico33006:0+69WWW
2South AfricaSouth Africa31112:3-14WDL
3South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
4CzechiaCzechia30122:6-41LDL
#TeamMPGPts
1MexicoMexico36:09
2South AfricaSouth Africa32:34
3South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
4CzechiaCzechia32:61

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

About the Mexico vs South Korea forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

Mexico and South Korea in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Mexico are 1st in the World Cup, 6 points ahead of South Korea in 3rd. League goal record so far: Mexico 6-0, South Korea 2-3. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Mexico and South Korea have met only 1 time recently, with 3.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.