FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca Prediction
Peru · Clausura - 4
Estadio de la UNSA, Arequipa· Daniel Ureta, Peru 09/08/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.28SignalSOLIDModel65%RiskMediumGap-2.2%
Value Analysis
55%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
2.00SignalHIGHModel61%RiskMediumGap+9.3%
FBC Melgar Rest
7 days
FC Cajamarca Rest
8 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
176%1.28
X18%5.10
26%9.80
Double Chance
1X94%1.05
X224%3.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes47%1.93
No53%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.13 + 0.72 = 2.85
Over 1.581%1.16
Over 2.563%1.55
Over 3.537%2.39
Under 1.519%4.67
Under 2.537%2.30
Under 3.563%1.53
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.4 = 9
Over 8.553%1.75
Over 9.538%2.13
Over 10.529%2.82
Under 8.547%1.95
Under 9.562%1.62
Under 10.571%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 2.9 = 5.5
Over 3.578%-
Over 4.561%-
Under 3.522%-
Under 4.539%-
Match Events
10'J. Vidales
24'M. Arrasco(Penalty missed)
25'M. RasmussenAssist: M. Arrasco
39'M. RasmussenFoul
45+1'C. A. Correa FloresFoul
51'A. DeneumostierFoul
55'M. ArrascoAssist: C. Meza
57'C. Meza
59'M. Rasmussen INJ. Betancourt out
60'C. Bordacahar INJ. Caceres out
60'N. Cabanillas INM. Zegarra out
60'W. Tandazo INM. Portillo out
67'J. VidalesAssist: B. Cuesta
68'M. ArrascoDelay of game
68'C. A. Correa Flores INE. Aubert out
68'M. PortilloFoul
72'N. Quagliata INF. Zanelatto out
73'R. SuarezFoul
74'C. Meza
86'M. Arrasco INC. Gomez out
86'C. Meza INJ. Vega out
90+7'A. DeneumostierUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+8'M. LazoFoul
Lineups
FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca
4-4-2Coach: Rafael Ayala Gavilan Celso
21J. CabezudoJorge Cabezudo
33M. LazoMatías Lazo
5A. DeneumostierAlec Deneumostier
3L. GonzálezLeonel González
7C. BordacaharCristian Bordacahar
24W. TandazoWalter Tandazo
25K. MindaKevin Minda
27N. CabanillasNelson Cabanillas
10N. QuagliataNicolás Quagliata
11J. VidalesJhonny Vidales
9B. CuestaBernardo Cuesta
12S. AspajoSamuel Aspajo
5R. SuárezRenato Suárez
2A. PósitoAlejandro Pósito
95Y. VílchezYordi Vílchez
31S. EncisoSebastián Enciso
20C. MezaCarlos Meza
18J. OrejuelaJefferson Orejuela
13C. CorreaCarlos Correa
6M. RasmussenMichel Rasmussen
17B. PalaciosBrandon Palacios
11M. ArrascoMauricio ArrascoFBC Melgar Substitutes
12Carlos CácedaG
90Jesus AlcantarD
8Lautaro GuzmánF
77Franco ZanelattoF
80Jhamir D'ArrigoM
20Gian GarcíaM
26Marcos PortilloM
16Jefferson CaceresM
45Matías ZegarraD
FC Cajamarca Substitutes
3Jonathan MedinaG
44Carlos GómezD
14Arthur GutiérrezD
26Hairo TimanáD
27Jonathan BetancourtM
21John VegaM
88Edson AubertM
32Patrick AlegríaF
7Sebastien PineauF
Match Stats
FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca 70%Ball Possession30%
10Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
19Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal7
5Shots off Goal6
15Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box9
7Blocked Shots3
7Fouls16
2Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves5
474Total Passes207
404Passes Accurate146
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Team Comparison
FBC MelgarFC Cajamarca1673Elo Rating 1503
1.55Attack 2.03
2.64Defense 0.28
64%Hit Rate 46%
15.6Shots per Game 15.4
6.2Shots on Target 4.3
4.5Corners per Game 3.5
1.6Cards per Game 2.6
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+170 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.84 goals
📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
FBC Melgar- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
FC Cajamarca- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.7 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Based on 1 historical meeting
FBC Melgar 0%Draw 0%100% FC Cajamarca
4Avg Goals
100%BTTS Rate
100%Over 2.5
Recent Form
FBC Melgar2W3D0L
FC Cajamarca0W2D3L
Referee Profile
Daniel Ureta, Peru · 32 matches analysed
4.7Avg Yellows
5.1Avg Cards
23.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 71% of referees analysed
League Table
Primera Division: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42:18 | +24 | 53 | LWDWW |
| 2 |  Universitario | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43:27 | +16 | 49 | WDWLW |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 44:28 | +16 | 45 | LDDLL |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 35:24 | +11 | 45 | WDDLL |
| 5 |  Cusco | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 38:37 | +1 | 42 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35:44 | -9 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44:37 | +7 | 40 | WWWWD |
| 8 |  Alianza Atletico | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38:34 | +4 | 37 | DDWLD |
| 9 |  Sport Boys | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28:25 | +3 | 37 | LWLLD |
| 10 |  Sporting Cristal | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | +6 | 35 | LLWWL |
| 11 |  Atletico Grau | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25:28 | -3 | 32 | DDDWL |
| 12 |  Sport Huancayo | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34:42 | -8 | 32 | DLLLW |
| 13 |  Juan Pablo II College | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38:52 | -14 | 31 | WLLWW |
| 14 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 34:36 | -2 | 30 | DDWLW |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 40:50 | -10 | 27 | LLLLL |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 25 | WLLWD |
| 17 |  ADT | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27:39 | -12 | 22 | DWLDD |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30:47 | -17 | 15 | LDLWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 26 | 42:18 | 53 |
| 2 | Universitario | 26 | 43:27 | 49 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 26 | 44:28 | 45 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 26 | 35:24 | 45 |
| 5 | Cusco | 26 | 38:37 | 42 |
| 6 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 26 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 25 | 44:37 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 26 | 38:34 | 37 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 26 | 28:25 | 37 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 26 | 45:39 | 35 |
| 11 | Atletico Grau | 26 | 25:28 | 32 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 26 | 34:42 | 32 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 26 | 38:52 | 31 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 26 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 26 | 40:50 | 27 |
| 16 | UCV Moquegua | 26 | 24:37 | 25 |
| 17 | ADT | 25 | 27:39 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 26 | 30:47 | 15 |
Primera Division: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30:8 | +22 | 40 | LWDWW |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25:21 | +4 | 34 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34:22 | +12 | 33 | WWWWD |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24:15 | +9 | 29 | WDWLW |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | +9 | 28 | LDDLL |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 27 | WWLWL |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21:18 | +3 | 26 | WDDLL |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | DDWLD |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18:20 | -2 | 21 | DDWLW |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22:21 | +1 | 20 | DWLDD |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 20 | LWLLD |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 | LLWWL |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | -5 | 18 | LDLWL |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17:24 | -7 | 18 | WLLWD |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 23:28 | -5 | 17 | LLLLL |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12:18 | -6 | 16 | DDDWL |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21:31 | -10 | 16 | DLLLW |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22:40 | -18 | 16 | WLLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 30:8 | 40 |
| 2 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 17 | 25:21 | 34 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 34:22 | 33 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 24:15 | 29 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 29:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 21:24 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 21:18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 18:20 | 21 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 22:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 15:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 28:30 | 19 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 21:26 | 18 |
| 14 | UCV Moquegua | 17 | 17:24 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 17 | 23:28 | 17 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 17 | Sport Huancayo | 17 | 21:31 | 16 |
| 18 | Juan Pablo II College | 17 | 22:40 | 16 |
Primera Division: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19:12 | +7 | 20 | WDWLW |
| 2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:6 | +8 | 19 | WDDLL |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:8 | +7 | 17 | LDDLL |
| 4 | Sport Boys | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:6 | +7 | 17 | LWLLD |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:9 | +8 | 16 | LLWWL |
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 16 | DDDWL |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18:16 | +2 | 16 | DDWLD |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 16 | DLLLW |
| 9 | Cusco | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17:13 | +4 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 10 | Juan Pablo II College | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 15 | WLLWW |
| 11 | Alianza Lima | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12:10 | +2 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 12 | FC Cajamarca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17:22 | -5 | 10 | LLLLL |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16:16 | 0 | 9 | DDWLW |
| 14 | Cienciano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:15 | -5 | 7 | WWWWD |
| 15 | UCV Moquegua | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7:13 | -6 | 7 | WLLWD |
| 16 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:23 | -13 | 7 | WWWWW |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:21 | -12 | 2 | LDLWL |
| 18 | ADT | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5:18 | -13 | 2 | DWLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitario | 9 | 19:12 | 20 |
| 2 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 9 | 14:6 | 19 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 9 | 15:8 | 17 |
| 4 | Sport Boys | 9 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 9 | 17:9 | 16 |
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 9 | 13:10 | 16 |
| 7 | Alianza Atletico | 9 | 18:16 | 16 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 9 | 13:11 | 16 |
| 9 | Cusco | 9 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 10 | Juan Pablo II College | 9 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 11 | Alianza Lima | 9 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 12 | FC Cajamarca | 9 | 17:22 | 10 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 9 | 16:16 | 9 |
| 14 | Cienciano | 8 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 15 | UCV Moquegua | 9 | 7:13 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 9 | 10:23 | 7 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 9 | 9:21 | 2 |
| 18 | ADT | 8 | 5:18 | 2 |
PromotionRelegation
FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Primera División fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Primera División
ScorePredicts covers Peru football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.
Key Factors for This Match
FBC Melgar and FC Cajamarca have met 1 times recently, averaging 4 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.