Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction

Guimaraes
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Arouca
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes· Miguel Nogueira, Portugal 08/08/2026
GuimaraesGuimaraes
0-1
Finished
AroucaArouca

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.33
SignalSOLIDModel41%RiskHighGap+6.2%
Guimaraes Rest
7 days
Arouca Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.89
X
24%3.50
2
26%3.98
Double Chance
1X
74%1.22
X2
50%1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.75
No
47%1.97
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 0.88 = 2.39
Over 1.5
72%1.25
Over 2.5
45%1.90
Over 3.5
23%3.20
Under 1.5
28%3.50
Under 2.5
55%1.89
Under 3.5
77%1.33
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

53'I. BarberoAssist: N. Djouahra
64'Hyun-ju LeeFoul
65'M. Flores INO. Lebedenko out
65'I. Barbero IND. Nandin out
69'Oumar CamaraFoul
69'Maga INT. Strata out
70'O. Camara INT. Arcanjo out
70'E. van Ee INPedro Santos out
70'H. Lee INP. Gozalbez out
73'J. Sanchez IND. Monteiro out
78'G. Nogueira INM. Mitrovic out
78'A. Ndoye INM. Nogueira out
90+6'Matija MitrovićArgument
90+4'Ignacio de ArruabarrenaArgument
90+3'Diogo MonteiroFoul
90+2'Orest LebedenkoFoul
90'Diogo MonteiroFoul
90+3'Diogo MonteiroFoul
90+6'Gustavo INL. Doucet out

Lineups

Guimaraes
4-2-3-1Coach: Tiago Margarido
Arouca
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Seabra
O. Zych48O. ZychO. Zych
Maga2MagaMaga
O. Rivas Viondi4O. Rivas ViondiO. Rivas Viondi
Thiago Balieiro28T. BalieiroThiago Balieiro
J. I. Mendes13J. I. MendesJ. I. Mendes
Beni16BeniBeni
G. Nogueira8G. NogueiraG. Nogueira
Gustavo11GustavoGustavo
Samu20SamuSamu
O. Camara7O. CamaraO. Camara
A. Ndoye24A. NdoyeA. Ndoye
I. De Arruabarrena12I. De ArruabarrenaI. De Arruabarrena
Tiago Esgaio28T. EsgaioTiago Esgaio
J. Sanchez15J. SanchezJ. Sanchez
J. Fontan3J. FontanJ. Fontan
M. Flores21M. FloresM. Flores
E. van Ee6E. van EeE. van Ee
T. Fukui8T. FukuiT. Fukui
A. Trezza19A. TrezzaA. Trezza
H. Lee14H. LeeH. Lee
N. Djouahra7N. DjouahraN. Djouahra
I. Barbero17I. BarberoI. Barbero

Guimaraes Substitutes

22J. CastilloG
98Lucas Furtado
18T. ArcanjoM
44L. DoucetM
56S. VerdiM
82F. DiasD
5A. SidibeD
6M. MitrovicM
23T. StrataD
17M. NogueiraM

Arouca Substitutes

1J. VinarcikG
71M. DuarteG
5B. PopovicD
89Pedro SantosM
9F. MayuluF
24B. MansillaF
37M. ClimentD
18O. LebedenkoD
10P. GozalbezM
23D. NandinF
4D. MonteiroD
77S. ParkF

Match Stats

GuimaraesArouca
58%Ball Possession42%
5Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
24Total Shots4
3Shots on Goal2
14Shots off Goal1
16Shots Inside Box3
8Shots Outside Box1
7Blocked Shots1
9Fouls7
1Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves3
497Total Passes378
431Passes Accurate298
87%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

GuimaraesGuimaraes
AroucaArouca
1573Elo Rating 1661
0.72Attack 1.22
1.84Defense 1.93
17%Hit Rate 34%
18.8Shots per Game 11.3
5.4Shots on Target 3.8
7.1Corners per Game 3.2
3.0Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

GuimaraesGuimaraes
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
AroucaArouca
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Guimaraes 31%Draw 42%27% Arouca
3.31Avg Goals
83%BTTS Rate
61%Over 2.5

Recent Form

GuimaraesGuimaraes
4W1D0L
01/08/2026
GuimaraesChaves
20
W
26/07/2026
GuimaraesNottingham Forest
11
D
24/07/2026
Al-Ahli JeddahGuimaraes
13
W
18/07/2026
GuimaraesAcademica
20
W
11/07/2026
GuimaraesFelgueiras 1932
31
W
AroucaArouca
1W2D2L
01/08/2026
Lusitânia LourosaArouca
02
W
25/07/2026
Santa ClaraArouca
30
L
22/07/2026
FamalicaoArouca
00
D
18/07/2026
FeirenseArouca
00
D
11/07/2026
Rio AveArouca
21
L

Referee Profile

Miguel Nogueira, Portugal · 9 matches analysed

4.8Avg Yellows
5.2Avg Cards
24.7Avg Fouls
Stricter than 80% of referees analysed

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto660015:2+1318WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica651021:4+1716WWWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP642015:6+914DWWWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara642011:4+714WWDWW
5AroucaArouca63128:5+310LDWLW
6EstrelaEstrela624014:12+210DWDWD
7SC BragaSC Braga53117:5+210WLWWD
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu62227:9-28WWLDL
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente52124:407LLDWW
10MaritimoMaritimo62137:11-47LLLDW
11MoreirenseMoreirense62137:13-67WLLWL
12AlvercaAlverca61238:11-35WLDLD
13FamalicaoFamalicao60425:7-24DDDLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC61144:7-34LDLWL
15NacionalNacional61147:11-44LLLLW
16Rio AveRio Ave61145:14-94DLLWL
17EstorilEstoril60242:8-62LDLLL
18Casa PiaCasa Pia60151:15-141LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto615:218
2BenficaBenfica621:416
3Sporting CPSporting CP615:614
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara611:414
5AroucaArouca68:510
6EstrelaEstrela614:1210
7SC BragaSC Braga57:510
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu67:98
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente54:47
10MaritimoMaritimo67:117
11MoreirenseMoreirense67:137
12AlvercaAlverca68:115
13FamalicaoFamalicao65:74
14Vitória SCVitória SC64:74
15NacionalNacional67:114
16Rio AveRio Ave65:144
17EstorilEstoril62:82
18Casa PiaCasa Pia61:151
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Primeira Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Primeira Liga

ScorePredicts covers Portugal football across all major markets. Use the navigation to explore today's full fixture list or filter by market.

Key Factors for This Match

Guimaraes and Arouca have met 5 times recently, averaging 3.31 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.