Sporting CP vs Vitória SC Prediction

Sporting CP
3-2
Finished
HT 3-0
Vitória SC
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon·David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal 14/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
69%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.55
SignalGOODModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+8.8%
Sporting CP Rest
5 days
Vitória SC Rest
6 days

Sporting CP vs Vitória SC: result, form and history

Sporting CP beat Vitória SC 3-2 in the Primeira Liga on 14 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Sporting CP have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 4.1 goals a game. Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva averages 5.96 cards a game, 0.89 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
65%1.30
X
19%5.41
2
16%8.70
Double Chance
1X
84%1.06
X2
35%3.37
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.85
No
47%1.85
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.03 + 0.78 = 2.81
Over 1.5
82%1.14
Over 2.5
58%1.55
Over 3.5
32%2.39
Under 1.5
18%4.80
Under 2.5
42%2.40
Under 3.5
68%1.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.2 + 3 = 10.2
Over 8.5
64%1.64
Over 9.5
53%2.05
Over 10.5
43%2.52
Under 8.5
36%2.11
Under 9.5
47%1.69
Under 10.5
57%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 3 = 5
Over 3.5
63%-
Over 4.5
48%1.65
Under 3.5
37%-
Under 4.5
52%2.15

Match Events

9'F. GoncalvesAssist: F. Ioannidis
22'F. IoannidisAssist: G. Catamo
24'S. AltimiraTripping
26'Thiago BalieiroRoughing
38'O. Rivas ViondiRoughing
41'S. AltimiraAssist: F. Ioannidis
46'O. Camara INM. Nogueira out
46'Maga INT. Strata out
46'Beni INL. Doucet out
55'G. CatamoRoughing
64'M. NogueiraHolding
66'SamuAssist: M. Nogueira
67'F. Goncalves INL. Suarez out
67'G. Catamo INLuis Guilherme out
69'A. NdoyeAssist: T. Strata
71'E. QuaresmaRoughing
76'F. Ioannidis INJ. Derry out
77'G. Nogueira INS. Verdi out
78'GustavoRoughing
84'G. Vagiannidis INI. Fresneda out
88'Samu INP. Ouotro out
90+1'G. InacioUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Coach: Rui Borges
Vitória SC
4-2-3-1Coach: Tiago Margarido
Avg rating6.83
Avg rating6.51
Rui Silva6.31R. Silva
Georgios Vagiannidis6.613G. Vagiannidis
Eduardo Quaresma6.772E. Quaresma
Gonçalo InácioC6.725G. Inácio
Maximiliano Araújo6.220M. Araújo
Sergi Altimira8.25S. Altimira
Issa Doumbia7.077I. Doumbia
Geny Catamo7.310G. Catamo
Rodrigo Zalazar5.617R. Zalazar
Flávio Gonçalves7.358F. Gonçalves
Fotis Ioannidis8.57F. Ioannidis
Oliwier Zych5.548O. Zych
Miguel Maga5.92M. Maga
Óscar Rivas6.34Ó. Rivas
Thiago Balieiro5.928T. Balieiro
João Mendes6.513J. Mendes
Gonçalo Nogueira6.78G. Nogueira
Beni Mukendi5.916B. Mukendi
Oumar Camara6.77O. Camara
SamuC8.020Samu
Gustavo Silva6.711G. Silva
Alioune Ndoye6.924A. Ndoye

Sporting CP Substitutes

12João Virgínia
22Iván Fresneda84'for G. Vagiannidis6.3
50Rodrigo Dias
55Ibrahima Ba
6Zeno Debast
31Luís Guilherme67'for G. Catamo6.6
21Pedro Lima
73Eduardo Felicíssimo
28Jesse Derry76'for F. Ioannidis6.9
4Silas Andersen
9Rafael Nel
97Luis Javier Suárez67'for F. Goncalves6.3

Vitória SC Substitutes

23Tony Strata46'for Maga7.5
44Lohann Doucet46'for Beni6.6
17Miguel Nogueira46'for O. Camara64'6.3
98Lucas Furtado
22Juan Castillo
82Francisco Dias
5Franck Ahmed Sidibé
18Telmo Arcanjo
56Santi Verdi77'for G. Nogueira6.2
6Matija Mitrović
29Patrick Ouotro88'for Samu

Match Stats

Sporting CPVitória SC
56%Ball Possession44%
5Corner Kicks1
4Yellow Cards4
5Total Shots12
3Shots on Goal3
0Shots off Goal7
3Shots Inside Box11
2Shots Outside Box1
2Blocked Shots2
12Fouls21
2Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves0
512Total Passes398
446Passes Accurate327
87%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

Sporting CPSporting CP
Vitória SCVitória SC
1812Elo Rating 1523
1.56Attack 1.48
2.05Defense 2.53
69%Hit Rate 42%
18.8Shots per Game 12.7
5.7Shots on Target 3.8
5.3Corners per Game 4.5
1.7Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+289 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Sporting CPSporting CP
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Vitória SCVitória SC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.2 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Sporting CPSporting CP7Wins · 70%
Draws110%
Vitória SCVitória SC2Wins · 20%
4.1Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga04/05/2026
Sporting CPGuimaraes
51
Taça da Liga06/01/2026
Sporting CPGuimaraes
12
Primeira Liga23/12/2025
GuimaraesSporting CP
14
Primeira Liga17/05/2025
Sporting CPGuimaraes
20
Primeira Liga03/01/2025
GuimaraesSporting CP
44
Primeira Liga21/04/2024
Sporting CPGuimaraes
30
Primeira Liga09/12/2023
GuimaraesSporting CP
32
Primeira Liga24/04/2023
GuimaraesSporting CP
02
Primeira Liga05/11/2022
Sporting CPGuimaraes
30
Primeira Liga19/03/2022
GuimaraesSporting CP
13

Recent Form

Sporting CPSporting CP
7W2D1L
08/08/2026
EstrelaSporting CP
22
D
31/07/2026
Sporting CPNottingham Forest
41
W
25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
20
W
20/07/2026
Sporting CPStrasbourg
70
W
14/07/2026
Sporting CPCeltic
41
W
24/05/2026
Sporting CPTorreense
1121
L
16/05/2026
Sporting CPGIL Vicente
30
W
11/05/2026
Rio AveSporting CP
14
W
04/05/2026
Sporting CPGuimaraes
51
W
29/04/2026
Sporting CPTondela
22
D
Vitória SCVitória SC
5W1D4L
08/08/2026
Vitória SCArouca
01
L
01/08/2026
Vitória SCChaves
20
W
26/07/2026
Vitória SCNottingham Forest
11
D
24/07/2026
Al-Ahli JeddahVitória SC
13
W
18/07/2026
Vitória SCAcademica
20
W
11/07/2026
Vitória SCFelgueiras 1932
31
W
16/05/2026
NacionalVitória SC
20
L
11/05/2026
Vitória SCCasa Pia
01
L
04/05/2026
Sporting CPVitória SC
51
L
25/04/2026
Vitória SCRio Ave
20
W

Referee Profile

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva30 matches

5.96Cards per match
5.74Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
31.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva5.96
Other referees5.07

5.96 cards a match, 0.89 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.07).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto11110027:5+2233WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica1191130:10+2028WWWWL
3Sporting CPSporting CP1173124:11+1324WWLWD
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1163216:8+821LWLWD
5AroucaArouca1162313:8+520LWWWD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1162315:13+220LWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1153310:8+218WDLWW
8SC BragaSC Braga1152413:11+217WWLLL
9MoreirenseMoreirense1142513:18-514LWWLD
10FamalicaoFamalicao1134415:14+113WLWLW
11AlvercaAlverca1133514:15-112DLLWW
12EstrelaEstrela1124517:22-510LLLLL
13NacionalNacional1131711:19-810WLWLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC1123611:12-19LDWLD
15MaritimoMaritimo102269:21-128LLLDL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia112276:20-148DLWLW
17Rio AveRio Ave112189:24-157LLLWL
18EstorilEstoril100285:19-142LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto1127:533
2BenficaBenfica1130:1028
3Sporting CPSporting CP1124:1124
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1116:821
5AroucaArouca1113:820
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1115:1320
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1110:818
8SC BragaSC Braga1113:1117
9MoreirenseMoreirense1113:1814
10FamalicaoFamalicao1115:1413
11AlvercaAlverca1114:1512
12EstrelaEstrela1117:2210
13NacionalNacional1111:1910
14Vitória SCVitória SC1111:129
15MaritimoMaritimo109:218
16Casa PiaCasa Pia116:208
17Rio AveRio Ave119:247
18EstorilEstoril105:192
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About the Sporting CP vs Vitória SC forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Sporting CP and Vitória SC in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Sporting CP are 3rd and Vitória SC 14th, 15 points apart. League goal record so far: Sporting CP 24-11, Vitória SC 11-12. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.