HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin Prediction

Stadion Poljud, Split·Dario Bel 18/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalHIGHModel51%SurpriseMediumGap-8.9%
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
2 days
NK Varazdin Rest
7 days

HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin: the result in context

HNK Hajduk Split beat NK Varazdin 1-0 in the HNL on 18 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: HNK Hajduk Split had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for NK Varazdin.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%1.75
X
26%3.50
2
23%4.32
Double Chance
1X
77%1.19
X2
49%1.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.70
No
46%2.02
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.6 + 0.87 = 2.47
Over 1.5
76%1.24
Over 2.5
52%1.80
Over 3.5
30%2.92
Under 1.5
24%3.80
Under 2.5
48%1.98
Under 3.5
70%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.1 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.65
Over 9.5
46%2.08
Over 10.5
34%2.74
Under 8.5
42%2.08
Under 9.5
54%1.65
Under 10.5
66%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.6 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%-
Over 4.5
48%-
Under 3.5
33%-
Under 4.5
52%-

Match Events

23'elvir durakovic INGregor Sikošek out
33'Dario MarešićFoul
58'Tomislav DuvnjakFoul
58'Andelo Šutalo INAbdoulie Sanyang out
63'Tomislav Duvnjak INDavid Puclin out
63'Petar Bočkaj INEmmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya out
63'Aleksa LatkovicFoul
65'Dario Melnjak INSimun Hrgovic out
66'Alberto del Moral INAdrion Pajaziti out
66'Marko Livaja INMichele Šego out
74'marin soticek INAdam Huram out
76'Aleksa Latkovic INLuka Skaricic out
76'luka mamic INIvan Posavec out
86'Mathieu AcapandieAssist: Abdoulie Sanyang
90'Adrion PajazitiFoul

Lineups

HNK Hajduk Split
4-2-3-1Coach: Gonzalo García
NK Varazdin
4-1-4-1Coach: N. Šafarić
Avg rating7.01
Avg rating6.56
T. Silić6.933T. Silić
M. Acapandié7.922M. Acapandié
D. Hadžikadunić7.66D. Hadžikadunić
D. Marešić7.215D. Marešić
D. Melnjak7.017D. Melnjak
K. Fayad7.28K. Fayad
Alberto del Moral6.620A. del Moral
A. Sutalo6.916A. Sutalo
Dali6.69Dali
M. Šotiček7.423M. Šotiček
M. Livaja6.410M. Livaja
J. Silić7.633J. Silić
L. Posinkovic6.330L. Posinkovic
M. Mladenovski7.013M. Mladenovski
N. Tepšić7.216N. Tepšić
E. Duraković6.63E. Duraković
T. Duvnjak6.48T. Duvnjak
P. Bočkaj6.212P. Bočkaj
I. Canjuga6.328I. Canjuga
L. Mamić5.922L. Mamić
Iuri Tavares6.038I. Tavares
A. Latković6.010A. Latković

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

99D. Fesyuk
3Roko Gabrić
32Š. Hrgović65'for Dario Melnjak7.3
26A. Guram74'for marin soticek6.8
77Carlos Martín
4A. Pajaziti66'for Alberto del Moral90'6.8
14R. Raci
7A. Sanyang58'for Andelo Šutalo7.0
44D. Stipica
5A. Van Hoorenbeeck
11M. Šego66'for Marko Livaja6.5
18L. Dendoncker

NK Varazdin Substitutes

5Sven Lesjak
17V. Akrap
11E. Uchegbu63'for Petar Bočkaj6.5
9S. Jurić
19L. Lukanić
24M. Marina
1R. McCrorie
21I. Posavec76'for luka mamic6.7
6D. Puclin63'for Tomislav Duvnjak6.6
14R. Punčec
20G. Sikošek23'for elvir durakovic6.8
4L. Škaričić76'for Aleksa Latkovic6.9

Match Stats

HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
64%Ball Possession36%
5Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
18Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal5
8Shots Inside Box5
10Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots1
17Fouls11
1Goalkeeper Saves5
527Total Passes293
442Passes Accurate211
11Free Kicks17

Team Comparison

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
NK VarazdinNK Varazdin
1754Elo Rating 1647
1.26Attack 1.12
2.08Defense 2.40
83%Hit Rate 37%
13.4Shots per Game 13.0
5.3Shots on Target 2.8
3.7Corners per Game 4.4
2.3Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+107 Elo
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
NK VarazdinNK Varazdin
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split3Wins · 30%
Draws330%
NK VarazdinNK Varazdin4Wins · 40%
2.1Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

HNL02/08/2026
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
21
HNL03/05/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
31
HNL28/02/2026
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL29/11/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
11
HNL13/09/2025
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
20
HNL18/04/2025
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
11
HNL08/02/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
10
HNL03/11/2024
NK VarazdinHNK Hajduk Split
10
HNL18/08/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
21
HNL05/05/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitNK Varazdin
01

Referee Profile

Dario Bel145 matches

4.37Cards per match
4.21Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Dario Bel4.37
Other referees4.59

4.37 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.59).

Cards come from 111 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1071219:9+1022WWLWW
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb961223:12+1119WLWLW
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1053214:8+618LWDDD
4NK OsijekNK Osijek1052319:15+417DLDWL
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka952216:12+417WLWDW
6Istra 1961Istra 19611033417:16+112LWLWD
7NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1031613:17-410WLLDL
8NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1031612:22-1010LWDLW
9RudesRudes1021713:27-147LWDLL
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica101367:15-86DLWDL
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1019:922
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb923:1219
3NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1014:818
4NK OsijekNK Osijek1019:1517
5HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka916:1217
6Istra 1961Istra 19611017:1612
7NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1013:1710
8NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1012:2210
9RudesRudes1013:277
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica107:156
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About the HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin forecast

The forecasts for this HNL match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin in the HNL table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: HNK Hajduk Split are 1st in the HNL, 4 points ahead of NK Varazdin in 3rd. League goal record so far: HNK Hajduk Split 19-9, NK Varazdin 14-8. The full standings are on the HNL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.