HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka·Mateo Erceg, Croatia 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-10.8%
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Over 4.5
1.67
SignalSOLIDModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+2.1%
HNK Rijeka Rest
4 days
HNK Hajduk Split Rest
6 days

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split: the result in context

HNK Rijeka beat HNK Hajduk Split 3-0 in the HNL on 20 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: HNK Hajduk Split had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for HNK Rijeka.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%1.87
X
27%3.40
2
26%3.88
Double Chance
1X
75%1.22
X2
53%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.75
No
47%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.28 + 1.17 = 2.45
Over 1.5
74%1.29
Over 2.5
49%1.90
Over 3.5
29%3.25
Under 1.5
26%3.48
Under 2.5
51%1.85
Under 3.5
71%1.31
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 4.7 = 10
Over 8.5
66%1.87
Over 9.5
54%2.46
Over 10.5
44%3.40
Under 8.5
34%1.87
Under 9.5
46%1.48
Under 10.5
56%1.24
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.9 = 3.9
Over 3.5
54%-
Over 4.5
35%-
Under 3.5
46%-
Under 4.5
65%-

Match Events

4'I. CubelicFoul
35'T. DantasAssist: D. Adu Adjei
38'R. RaciUnsportsmanlike conduct
45'J. LasickasFoul
45+3'S. VignatoAssist: D. Adu Adjei
45+3'T. SilicUnsportsmanlike conduct
57'D. Adu Adjei
62'A. Pajaziti INA. del Moral out
64'B. PavicFoul
65'I. Cubelic INA. Barco out
73'M. Acapandie IND. Hadzikadunic out
73'M. Soticek INC. Martin out
74'J. Lasickas INM. Devetak out
74'S. Vignato INM. Mohebi out
75'K. FayadFoul
82'A. Sanyang INA. Huram out
82'K. Fayad IND. Melnjak out
85'T. Fruk INA. Gojak out
85'T. Dantas INN. Jankovic out

Lineups

HNK Rijeka
4-2-3-1Coach: Matjaz Kek
HNK Hajduk Split
4-2-3-1Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Avg rating7.13
Avg rating6.32
Igor Vekić8.513I. Vekić
Ante Oreč7.222A. Oreč
Ante MajstorovićC6.945A. Majstorović
Anel Husić7.051A. Husić
Justas Lasickas6.523J. Lasickas
Ivan Ćubelić6.38I. Ćubelić
Branko Pavić6.96B. Pavić
Toni Fruk6.710T. Fruk
Tiago Dantas8.326T. Dantas
Samuele Vignato7.519S. Vignato
Daniel Adu-Adjei8.618D. Adu-Adjei
Toni Silić5.333T. Silić
Mathieu Acapandié6.222M. Acapandié
Dario Marešić6.715D. Marešić
Ron Raçi4.914R. Raçi
Šimun Hrgović6.332Š. Hrgović
Khalil Fayad6.98K. Fayad
Adrion Pajaziti6.54A. Pajaziti
Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba6.77A. Sanyang Bamba
Dalisson de Almeida6.59D. de Almeida
Marin Šotiček6.223M. Šotiček
Michele ŠegoC6.311M. Šego

HNK Rijeka Substitutes

5Alfonso Barco65'for I. Cubelic6.2
1Vito Kovač
99Aleksa Todorović
3Moreno Živković
34Mladen Devetak74'for J. Lasickas6.7
91Noel Bodetić
4Niko Janković85'for T. Dantas
14Amer Gojak85'for T. Fruk
7Yusuf Kabadayi
9Mohammad Mohebi74'for S. Vignato6.5
21Jakov Puljić
77Ante Matej Jurić

HNK Hajduk Split Substitutes

20Alberto del Moral62'for A. Pajaziti6.6
44Dante Stipica
99Davyd Fesyuk
38Luka Hodak
3Roko Gabrić
5Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
6Dennis Hadžikadunić73'for M. Acapandie6.3
17Dario Melnjak82'for K. Fayad6.7
26Adam Huram82'for A. Sanyang6.3
77Carlos Martín73'for M. Soticek6.7
19Etnik Brruti
16Anđelo Šutalo

Match Stats

HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
41%Ball Possession59%
0Corner Kicks4
3Yellow Cards3
7Total Shots13
4Shots on Goal7
2Shots off Goal4
4Shots Inside Box6
3Shots Outside Box7
1Blocked Shots2
14Fouls7
2Offsides1
7Goalkeeper Saves1
356Total Passes526
284Passes Accurate459
80%Pass Accuracy87%

Team Comparison

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
1642Elo Rating 1759
1.64Attack 1.72
1.27Defense 2.44
31%Hit Rate 61%
11.9Shots per Game 13.0
3.6Shots on Target 4.2
6.5Corners per Game 5.9
3.0Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast: scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half and can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka4Wins · 40%
Draws440%
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split2Wins · 20%
2.9Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

HNL26/04/2026
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
00
Cup04/03/2026
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
32
HNL22/02/2026
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Rijeka
10
HNL22/11/2025
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
50
HNL31/08/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Rijeka
22
HNL18/05/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Rijeka
21
HNL16/03/2025
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
30
Cup26/02/2025
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Rijeka
13
HNL15/12/2024
HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Rijeka
22
HNL29/09/2024
HNK RijekaHNK Hajduk Split
00

Referee Profile

Mateo Erceg121 matches

4.46Cards per match
4.30Yellow cards per match
0.16Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mateo Erceg4.46
Other referees4.40

4.46 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.40).

Cards come from 69 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

HNL 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1392227:11+1629WWDWW
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1281328:15+1325WLWWL
3NK OsijekNK Osijek1362522:18+420LWLDL
4Istra 1961Istra 19611354424:19+519WWDLW
5NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1354417:14+319LDLLW
6HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1253419:18+118LDLWL
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1351719:28-916WLWLW
8RudesRudes1351716:27-1116WWWLW
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1332814:21-711LLDWL
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica1314810:25-157LLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1HNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split1327:1129
2Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1228:1525
3NK OsijekNK Osijek1322:1820
4Istra 1961Istra 19611324:1919
5NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1317:1419
6HNK RijekaHNK Rijeka1219:1818
7NK Slaven BelupoNK Slaven Belupo1319:2816
8RudesRudes1316:2716
9NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNK Lokomotiva Zagreb1314:2111
10HNK GoricaHNK Gorica1310:257
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split forecast

As a derby, this HNL meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

HNK Rijeka and HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL table

In the HNL table, HNK Hajduk Split are 1st and HNK Rijeka 6th, 11 points apart. League goal record so far: HNK Rijeka 19-18, HNK Hajduk Split 27-11. The full standings are on the HNL Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

HNK Rijeka have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. HNK Hajduk Split have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.