Spain vs Belgium Prediction

Spain
2-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Belgium
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles·Michael Oliver, England 10/07/2026
SpainSpain
2-1
Finished
BelgiumBelgium

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.6 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.63
SignalGOODModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+9.6%
Spain Rest
4 days
Belgium Rest
3 days

Spain vs Belgium: result, form and history

Spain beat Belgium 2-1 in the World Cup on 10 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Spain tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 2.9 for Belgium.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.62
X
34%3.95
2
8%5.50
Double Chance
1X
91%1.15
X2
42%2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.76
No
47%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.5 + 0.87 = 2.37
Over 1.5
73%1.22
Over 2.5
45%1.78
Over 3.5
25%2.90
Under 1.5
27%3.90
Under 2.5
55%2.05
Under 3.5
75%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4 = 9.6
Over 8.5
56%1.49
Over 9.5
46%1.77
Over 10.5
33%2.19
Under 8.5
44%2.50
Under 9.5
54%1.97
Under 10.5
67%1.63
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.6 = 3.1
Over 3.5
38%2.40
Over 4.5
21%3.85
Under 3.5
62%1.51
Under 4.5
79%1.23

Match Events

30'F. Ruiz
41'C. De KetelaereAssist: T. Castagne
43'P. CubarsiHolding
55'A. Baena INF. Torres out
55'F. Ruiz INPedri out
60'L. Trossard INA. Witsel out
60'H. Vanaken INR. Lukaku out
61'M. De Cuyper INJ. Seys out
71'T. Courtois INS. Lammens out
79'M. Oyarzabal INN. Williams out
85'K. De BruyneHolding
86'K. De Bruyne INA. Saelemaekers out
86'D. Olmo INM. Merino out
88'M. Merino
90+3'A. LaporteRoughing
90+5'A. WitselRoughing

Lineups

Spain
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Avg rating6.93
Avg rating6.69
Unai Simón6.523U. Simón
Pedro Porro6.912P. Porro
Pau Cubarsí7.322P. Cubarsí
Aymeric Laporte6.614A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella6.324M. Cucurella
RodriC7.616Rodri
Fabián Ruiz7.38F. Ruiz
Lamine Yamal7.319L. Yamal
Dani Olmo7.310D. Olmo
Alex Baena6.915A. Baena
Mikel Oyarzabal6.921M. Oyarzabal
Thibaut Courtois7.91T. Courtois
Timothy Castagne6.621T. Castagne
Nathan Ngoy7.225N. Ngoy
Brandon Mechele6.94B. Mechele
Maxim De Cuyper6.35M. De Cuyper
Hans Vanaken6.320H. Vanaken
Nicolas Raskin6.723N. Raskin
Leandro Trossard6.310L. Trossard
Kevin De BruyneC6.67K. De Bruyne
Jérémy Doku6.711J. Doku
Charles De Ketelaere7.517C. De Ketelaere

Spain Substitutes

20Pedri55'for F. Ruiz7.0
7Ferran Torres55'for A. Baena6.5
17Nico Williams79'for M. Oyarzabal6.3
6Mikel Merino86'for D. Olmo88'7.2
1David Raya
13Joan García
2Marc Pubill
4Eric García
5Marcos Llorente
3Alejandro Grimaldo
9Pablo Gavi
18Martín Zubimendi
11Yéremy Pino
25Víctor Muñoz
26Borja Iglesias

Belgium Substitutes

6Axel Witsel60'for L. Trossard90+5'6.5
9Romelu Lukaku60'for H. Vanaken6.2
18Joaquin Seys61'for M. De Cuyper6.5
12Senne Lammens71'for T. Courtois6.2
22Alexis Saelemaekers86'for K. De Bruyne6.7
13Mike Penders
3Arthur Theate
15Thomas Meunier
16Koni De Winter
19Diego Moreira
14Dodi Lukebakio
26Matías Fernández-Pardo

Match Stats

SpainBelgium
68%Ball Possession32%
5Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots5
8Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal1
10Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box1
5Blocked Shots2
13Fouls18
3Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves6
665Total Passes314
598Passes Accurate244
90%Pass Accuracy78%

Team Comparison

SpainSpain
BelgiumBelgium
1983Elo Rating 1787
2.50Attack 1.43
1.98Defense 1.45
86%Hit Rate 39%
14.5Shots per Game 11.4
6.7Shots on Target 4.8
5.7Corners per Game 2.9
1.0Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+195 Elo
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

SpainSpain
7W3D0L
06/07/2026
PortugalSpain
01
W
02/07/2026
SpainAustria
30
W
27/06/2026
UruguaySpain
01
W
21/06/2026
SpainSaudi Arabia
40
W
15/06/2026
SpainCape Verde Islands
00
D
09/06/2026
PeruSpain
13
W
04/06/2026
SpainIraq
11
D
18/11/2025
SpainTürkiye
22
D
15/11/2025
GeorgiaSpain
04
W
14/10/2025
SpainBulgaria
40
W
BelgiumBelgium
7W3D0L
07/07/2026
USABelgium
14
W
01/07/2026
BelgiumSenegal
3222
W
27/06/2026
New ZealandBelgium
15
W
21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D
15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
18/11/2025
BelgiumLiechtenstein
70
W
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
WalesBelgium
24
W

Referee Profile

Michael Oliver314 matches

3.92Cards per match
3.78Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Michael Oliver3.93
Other referees3.94

3.93 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).

Cards come from 307 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain32105:0+57WWD
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands30302:203DDD
3UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia30211:5-42DLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain35:07
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands32:23
3UruguayUruguay33:42
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia31:52

About the Spain vs Belgium forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.6 out of 10 by our context model. Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Spain and Belgium have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.