USA vs Belgium Prediction

USA
1-4
Finished
HT 1-2
Belgium
Lumen Field, SeattleĀ·Adham Mohammad, Jordan 07/07/2026
USAUSA
1-4
Finished
BelgiumBelgium

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.48
SignalHIGHModel43%SurpriseMediumGap+12.3%
USA Rest
5 days
Belgium Rest
5 days

USA vs Belgium: result, form and history

Belgium beat USA 4-1 in the World Cup on 7 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

USA tend to win more corners, 5.1 a game to 2.9 for Belgium.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%2.54
X
29%3.40
2
47%2.77
Double Chance
1X
53%1.44
X2
76%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.53
No
47%2.41
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.41 = 2.56
Over 1.5
73%1.18
Over 2.5
46%1.65
Over 3.5
26%2.55
Under 1.5
27%4.30
Under 2.5
54%2.25
Under 3.5
74%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.2 = 9.3
Over 8.5
55%1.48
Over 9.5
46%1.82
Over 10.5
33%2.31
Under 8.5
45%2.48
Under 9.5
54%1.95
Under 10.5
67%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.8 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%2.14
Over 4.5
28%3.05
Under 3.5
53%1.66
Under 4.5
72%1.35

Match Events

9'C. De KetelaereAssist: N. Raskin
21'A. Onana INH. Vanaken out
31'M. Tillman
33'C. De KetelaereAssist: L. Trossard
35'W. McKennieTripping
46'S. Dest ING. Reyna out
57'H. VanakenAssist: C. De Ketelaere
59'C. Pulisic INS. Berhalter out
67'D. Lukebakio INJ. Doku out
67'C. De Ketelaere INR. Lukaku out
69'M. TillmanTripping
72'T. Adams INR. Pepi out
89'L. Trossard INA. Saelemaekers out
89'N. Raskin INA. Witsel out
90+2'F. Balogun INH. Wright out
90+2'A. Robinson INM. Arfsten out
90+3'R. LukakuAssist: H. Vanaken

Lineups

USA
4-3-3Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Avg rating6.57
Avg rating6.96
Matthew Freese6.324M. Freese
Alexander Freeman7.016A. Freeman
Chris Richards6.63C. Richards
Tim ReamC5.613T. Ream
Antonee Robinson6.75A. Robinson
Weston McKennie6.08W. McKennie
Tyler Adams6.94T. Adams
Malik Tillman7.317M. Tillman
SergiƱo Dest6.72S. Dest
Folarin Balogun6.220F. Balogun
Christian PuliÅ”ić6.210C. PuliÅ”ić
Thibaut Courtois6.21T. Courtois
Timothy Castagne6.921T. Castagne
Nathan Ngoy6.525N. Ngoy
Brandon Mechele6.24B. Mechele
Maxim De Cuyper6.95M. De Cuyper
Amadou Onana6.924A. Onana
Nicolas Raskin7.723N. Raskin
Dodi Lukebakio6.614D. Lukebakio
Youri TielemansC6.98Y. Tielemans
Leandro Trossard7.310L. Trossard
Charles De Ketelaere8.317C. De Ketelaere

USA Substitutes

7Giovanni Reyna46'for S. Dest6.6
14Sebastian Berhalter59'for C. Pulisic7.0
1Matt Turner
25Chris Brady
12Miles Robinson
22Mark McKenzie
6Auston Trusty
23Joe Scally
26Alex Zendejas
18Maximilian Arfsten90+2'for A. Robinson
21Timothy Weah
11Brenden Aaronson
19Haji Wright90+2'for F. Balogun
9Ricardo Pepi72'for T. Adams6.9

Belgium Substitutes

20Hans Vanaken21'for A. Onana57'7.3
11JƩrƩmy Doku67'for D. Lukebakio7.2
13Mike Penders
12Senne Lammens
18Joaquin Seys
3Arthur Theate
16Koni De Winter
2Zeno Debast
15Thomas Meunier
19Diego Moreira
22Alexis Saelemaekers89'for L. Trossard
6Axel Witsel89'for N. Raskin
7Kevin De Bruyne
26Matƭas FernƔndez-Pardo
9Romelu Lukaku67'for C. De Ketelaere90+3'6.5

Match Stats

USABelgium
56%Ball Possession44%
3Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots15
2Shots on Goal7
5Shots off Goal4
5Shots Inside Box10
2Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots4
11Fouls9
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
527Total Passes414
459Passes Accurate334
87%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

USAUSA
BelgiumBelgium
1698Elo Rating 1788
2.01Attack 1.43
1.20Defense 1.45
54%Hit Rate 39%
11.1Shots per Game 11.4
3.5Shots on Target 4.8
5.1Corners per Game 2.9
1.6Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

šŸ“ˆBTTS Trend
šŸ“ŠHome Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)
BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

USAUSA0Wins Ā· 0%
Draws1100%
BelgiumBelgium0Wins Ā· 0%
0.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

World Cup01/07/2014
BelgiumUSA
2010

Recent Form

USAUSA
7W0D3L
02/07/2026
USABosnia & Herzegovina
20
W
26/06/2026
TürkiyeUSA
32
L
19/06/2026
USAAustralia
20
W
13/06/2026
USAParaguay
41
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L
03/07/2025
USAGuatemala
21
W
30/06/2025
USACosta Rica
4232
W
23/06/2025
USAHaiti
21
W
BelgiumBelgium
6W4D0L
01/07/2026
BelgiumSenegal
3222
W
27/06/2026
New ZealandBelgium
15
W
21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D
15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
18/11/2025
BelgiumLiechtenstein
70
W
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
WalesBelgium
24
W
10/10/2025
BelgiumFYR Macedonia
00
D

Referee Profile

Adham Mohammad28 matches

3.26Cards per match
3.19Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Adham Mohammad3.26
Other referees3.44

3.26 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.44).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

About the USA vs Belgium forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. USA and Belgium have met only 1 time recently, with 0.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.