USA vs Belgium Prediction

USA
1-4
Finished
HT 1-2
Belgium
Lumen Field, Seattle· Adham Mohammad, Jordan 07/07/2026
USAUSA
1-4
Finished
BelgiumBelgium

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.48
SignalGOODModel43%RiskMediumGap+12.3%
USA Rest
5 days
Belgium Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%2.54
X
29%3.40
2
47%2.77
Double Chance
1X
53%1.44
X2
76%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.53
No
47%2.41
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.15 + 1.41 = 2.56
Over 1.5
73%1.18
Over 2.5
46%1.65
Over 3.5
26%2.55
Under 1.5
27%4.30
Under 2.5
54%2.25
Under 3.5
74%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.2 = 9.3
Over 8.5
55%1.48
Over 9.5
46%1.82
Over 10.5
33%2.31
Under 8.5
45%2.48
Under 9.5
54%1.95
Under 10.5
67%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.8 = 3.5
Over 3.5
47%2.17
Over 4.5
28%3.20
Under 3.5
53%1.64
Under 4.5
72%1.30

Match Events

9'C. De KetelaereAssist: N. Raskin
21'A. Onana INH. Vanaken out
31'M. Tillman
33'C. De KetelaereAssist: L. Trossard
35'W. McKennieTripping
46'S. Dest ING. Reyna out
57'H. VanakenAssist: C. De Ketelaere
59'C. Pulisic INS. Berhalter out
67'D. Lukebakio INJ. Doku out
67'C. De Ketelaere INR. Lukaku out
69'M. TillmanTripping
72'T. Adams INR. Pepi out
89'L. Trossard INA. Saelemaekers out
89'N. Raskin INA. Witsel out
90+2'F. Balogun INH. Wright out
90+2'A. Robinson INM. Arfsten out
90+3'R. LukakuAssist: H. Vanaken

Lineups

USA
4-3-3Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Matthew Freese24M. FreeseMatthew Freese
Alexander Freeman16A. FreemanAlexander Freeman
Chris Richards3C. RichardsChris Richards
Tim Ream13T. ReamTim Ream
Antonee Robinson5A. RobinsonAntonee Robinson
Weston McKennie8W. McKennieWeston McKennie
Tyler Adams4T. AdamsTyler Adams
Malik Tillman17M. TillmanMalik Tillman
Sergiño Dest2S. DestSergiño Dest
Folarin Balogun20F. BalogunFolarin Balogun
Christian Pulišić10C. PulišićChristian Pulišić
Thibaut Courtois1T. CourtoisThibaut Courtois
Timothy Castagne21T. CastagneTimothy Castagne
Nathan Ngoy25N. NgoyNathan Ngoy
Brandon Mechele4B. MecheleBrandon Mechele
Maxim De Cuyper5M. De CuyperMaxim De Cuyper
Amadou Onana24A. OnanaAmadou Onana
Nicolas Raskin23N. RaskinNicolas Raskin
Dodi Lukebakio14D. LukebakioDodi Lukebakio
Youri Tielemans8Y. TielemansYouri Tielemans
Leandro Trossard10L. TrossardLeandro Trossard
Charles De Ketelaere17C. De KetelaereCharles De Ketelaere

USA Substitutes

7Giovanni ReynaM
14Sebastian BerhalterM
1Matt TurnerG
25Chris BradyG
12Miles RobinsonD
22Mark McKenzieD
6Auston TrustyD
23Joe ScallyD
26Alex ZendejasF
18Maximilian ArfstenM
21Timothy WeahF
11Brenden AaronsonM
19Haji WrightF
9Ricardo PepiF

Belgium Substitutes

20Hans VanakenM
11Jérémy DokuF
13Mike PendersG
12Senne LammensG
18Joaquin SeysD
3Arthur TheateD
16Koni De WinterD
2Zeno DebastD
15Thomas MeunierD
19Diego MoreiraF
22Alexis SaelemaekersF
6Axel WitselM
7Kevin De BruyneM
26Matías Fernández-PardoF
9Romelu LukakuF

Match Stats

USABelgium
56%Ball Possession44%
3Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots14
2Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal4
5Shots Inside Box9
2Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots4
11Fouls9
0Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
520Total Passes402
454Passes Accurate327
87%Pass Accuracy81%

Team Comparison

USAUSA
BelgiumBelgium
1691Elo Rating 1784
2.01Attack 2.40
1.20Defense 1.68
54%Hit Rate 39%
11.1Shots per Game 17.3
3.5Shots on Target 5.5
5.1Corners per Game 4.1
1.6Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)
BelgiumBelgium
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.9 in first half)

Head to Head

Based on 1 historical meeting

USA 0%Draw 100%0% Belgium
0Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

Adham Mohammad, Jordan · 8 matches analysed

3.6Avg Yellows
3.7Avg Cards
24.3Avg Fouls
Stricter than 20% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

USA vs Belgium Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. USA and Belgium have met 1 times recently, averaging 0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.