Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

Belgium
3-2
After Extra Time
HT 0-1AET 1-0
Senegal
Lumen Field, Seattle· Said Martinez, Honduras 01/07/2026
BelgiumBelgium
3-2
After Extra Time
SenegalSenegal

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalSOLIDModel56%RiskMediumGap-2.0%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.56
SignalGOODModel51%RiskMediumGap+6.1%
Belgium Rest
4 days
Senegal Rest
5 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%2.14
X
23%3.25
2
24%3.75
Double Chance
1X
75%1.29
X2
47%1.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.65
No
50%2.14
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 0.93 = 2.16
Over 1.5
71%1.25
Over 2.5
43%1.85
Over 3.5
23%3.03
Under 1.5
29%3.78
Under 2.5
57%1.94
Under 3.5
77%1.37
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 3.4 = 8.3
Over 8.5
51%1.50
Over 9.5
43%1.83
Over 10.5
32%2.31
Under 8.5
49%2.40
Under 9.5
57%1.91
Under 10.5
68%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4
Over 3.5
51%2.25
Over 4.5
29%3.50
Under 3.5
49%1.57
Under 4.5
71%1.26

Match Events

25'H. Diarra
46'C. De Ketelaere INR. Lukaku out
51'I. SarrAssist: M. Niakhate
56'K. De Bruyne INN. Raskin out
56'J. Doku IND. Lukebakio out
63'H. Vanaken IND. Moreira out
64'B. MecheleRoughing
66'P. Gueye INL. Camara out
67'L. CamaraRoughing
73'I. Ndiaye INI. Mbaye out
73'H. Diarra INP. M. Sarr out
78'M. De Cuyper INT. Meunier out
86'R. LukakuAssist: T. Meunier
89'Y. TielemansAssist: L. Trossard
90'R. Garcia

Extra Time1 - 0

93'S. Mane INN. Jackson out
93'I. Jakobs INM. Diouf out
96'I. Gueye INB. Sapoko Ndiaye out
109'L. Trossard INA. Onana out
120+5'Y. Tielemans(Penalty)

Lineups

Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Senegal
4-3-3Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape
Thibaut Courtois1T. CourtoisThibaut Courtois
Timothy Castagne21T. CastagneTimothy Castagne
Brandon Mechele4B. MecheleBrandon Mechele
Arthur Theate3A. TheateArthur Theate
Maxim De Cuyper5M. De CuyperMaxim De Cuyper
Youri Tielemans8Y. TielemansYouri Tielemans
Hans Vanaken20H. VanakenHans Vanaken
Leandro Trossard10L. TrossardLeandro Trossard
Kevin De Bruyne7K. De BruyneKevin De Bruyne
Jérémy Doku11J. DokuJérémy Doku
Charles De Ketelaere17C. De KetelaereCharles De Ketelaere
Mory Diaw23M. DiawMory Diaw
Krépin Diatta15K. DiattaKrépin Diatta
Pathé Ismaël Ciss6P. Ismaël CissPathé Ismaël Ciss
Moussa Niakhaté19M. NiakhatéMoussa Niakhaté
Ismail Jakobs14I. JakobsIsmail Jakobs
Habib Diarra21H. DiarraHabib Diarra
Idrissa Gana Gueye5I. Gana GueyeIdrissa Gana Gueye
Pape Gueye26P. GueyePape Gueye
Iliman Ndiaye13I. NdiayeIliman Ndiaye
Ismaïla Sarr18I. SarrIsmaïla Sarr
Sadio Mané10S. ManéSadio Mané

Belgium Substitutes

9Romelu LukakuF
23Nicolas RaskinM
14Dodi LukebakioF
19Diego MoreiraF
15Thomas MeunierD
24Amadou OnanaM
13Mike PendersG
12Senne LammensG
16Koni De WinterD
18Joaquin SeysD
25Nathan NgoyD
6Axel WitselM
22Alexis SaelemaekersF
26Matías Fernández-PardoF

Senegal Substitutes

8Lamine CamaraM
17Pape Matar SarrM
20Ibrahim MbayeF
25El Hadji Malick DioufD
11Nicolas JacksonF
22Bara Sapoko NdiayeM
1Yehvann DioufG
3Kalidou KoulibalyD
4Abdoulaye SeckD
24Antoine MendyD
2Mamadou SarrD
7Assane DiaoF
9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF
12Cherif NdiayeF

Match Stats

BelgiumSenegal
52%Ball Possession48%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
19Total Shots16
5Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal10
11Shots Inside Box10
8Shots Outside Box6
5Blocked Shots1
21Fouls12
2Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
699Total Passes639
602Passes Accurate536
86%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

BelgiumBelgium
SenegalSenegal
1784Elo Rating 1768
2.40Attack 2.24
1.68Defense 1.38
39%Hit Rate 23%
17.3Shots per Game 16.8
5.5Shots on Target 6.2
4.1Corners per Game 5.9
1.0Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

BelgiumBelgium
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.9 in first half)
SenegalSenegal
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

BelgiumBelgium
3W2D0L
27/06/2026
New ZealandBelgium
15
W
21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D
15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
SenegalSenegal
1W1D3L
26/06/2026
SenegalIraq
50
W
23/06/2026
NorwaySenegal
32
L
16/06/2026
FranceSenegal
31
L
10/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaSenegal
00
D
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
L

Referee Profile

Said Martinez, Honduras · 3 matches analysed

3.5Avg Yellows
3.6Avg Cards
26.1Avg Fouls
Stricter than 9% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. Belgium and Senegal have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.