Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport Prediction

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands · Regular Season - 12

Jong AZ

5-4

Finished

HT 2-2

Helmond Sport

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar 23/10/2026

Jong AZ

5-4

Finished

Helmond Sport

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

3.6 / 10

AI Best Pick

73%Trust

Double Chance

Home Win or Draw

1.26

SignalGOODModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-5.9%

Jong AZ Rest

7 days

Helmond Sport Rest

7 days

Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport: the result in context

Jong AZ beat Helmond Sport 5-4 in the Eerste Divisie on 23 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.3 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 8.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

50%1.85

22%3.98

28%3.52

Double Chance

72%1.26

50%1.90

Both Teams to Score

Yes

69%1.38

31%2.80

Goals

Projected Goals: 2.43 + 1.34 = 3.77

Over 1.5

87%1.10

Over 2.5

71%1.39

Over 3.5

55%1.98

Under 1.5

13%6.50

Under 2.5

29%2.88

Under 3.5

45%1.78

Corners

Projected Corners: 6.5 + 4.5 = 11

Over 8.5

75%1.31

Over 9.5

64%1.52

Over 10.5

53%1.88

Under 8.5

25%3.08

Under 9.5

36%2.31

Under 10.5

47%1.83

Cards

Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.1 = 3.8

Over 3.5

52%-

Over 4.5

33%-

Under 3.5

48%-

Under 4.5

67%-

Match Events

16'Bogdan BudkoAssist: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe

22'Jasper Hartog

29'Tarik Essakkati

35'Dean·HuibertsAssist: Tarik Essakkati

45'Andrea Natali INRayan Atikallah out

51'Jasper HartogAssist: Jesper Zwart

59'Michel Simon LudwigAssist: Tarik Essakkati

62'rio robbemond INGijs Groot out

62'Jasper Hartog INKiani Inge out

68'Dean·Huiberts INLivio Cicero out

74'Bogdan Budko INAdam Ouaziz out

77'Lovro Golic INFlor Van Den Eynden out

78'Frej Elkjær Andersen

84'Joep van der Sluijs INLabinot Bajrami out

84'Tarik Essakkati INKiton Ekoli out

84'Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe INMelle Roede out

88'Xander van der Velde INalen dizdarevic out

89'Kiton EkoliAssist: Brian Koglin

90'Kevin toppenberg INJ. Esajas out

90+3'J. EsajasAssist: Melle Roede

Lineups

Jong AZ

4-3-3Coach: Norbert Alblas

Helmond Sport

4-2-3-1Coach: Frédéric Frans

Avg rating6.51

Avg rating6.59

6.51I. Ka

6.62J. Zwart

6.23A. Natali

6.54M. Menu

55S. Mourinho Simons Saffoe

66J. Sijbrands

7.310B. Budko

7.58F. Andersen

9.07J. Hartog

6.39R. Robbemond

6.411K. Toppenberg

5.81M. Bergsen

6.020S. Dekkers

6.94B. Koglin

6.214L. Golič

6.25T. Poll

7.56M. Ludwig

6.344X. van der Velde

6.57J. van der Sluijs

7.510D. Huiberts

8.634T. Essakkati

6.494M. Lenaerts

Jong AZ Substitutes

22Calvin Carrilho

15J. Esajas90'for Kevin toppenberg90+3'

19Gijs Groot62'replaced by rio robbemond

20K. Inge62'for Jasper Hartog5.8

18Rick Luijer

21Adam Ouaziz74'replaced by Bogdan Budko

17M. Roede84'replaced by Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe5.7

23K. Schilder

16K. Zeggen

12K. van Ouytsel

14R. Atikallah45'for Andrea Natali6.1

Helmond Sport Substitutes

11L. Cicero68'for Dean·Huiberts5.9

9L. Bajrami84'for Joep van der Sluijs6.3

22A. Dizdarević88'for Xander van der Velde5.8

30K. Ekoli84'for Tarik Essakkati89'8.1

23A. El Maach

47Dayen Geerts

43T. Landheer

35N. Meissner

3F. Van Den Eynden77'for Lovro Golic5.5

2R. van Bree

21Wessel van der Heijden

Match Stats

Jong AZHelmond Sport

55%Ball Possession45%

5Corner Kicks7

14Total Shots21

6Shots on Goal9

6Shots off Goal9

7Shots Inside Box15

7Shots Outside Box6

2Blocked Shots3

8Fouls12

1Offsides2

5Goalkeeper Saves1

471Total Passes368

397Passes Accurate300

12Free Kicks8

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

1532Elo Rating 1427

3.07Attack 1.60

0.50Defense 0.00

44%Hit Rate 0%

16.5Shots per Game 14.3

6.4Shots on Target 6.0

5.8Corners per Game 4.6

1.3Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+104 Elo

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.77 goals

📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Jong AZ

Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.3 in first half)
Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Helmond Sport

Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.7 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Jong AZ4Wins · 40%

Draws110%

Helmond Sport

5Wins · 50%

3.3Avg Goals

80%Both teams scored8 of 10

70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

03/04/2026

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

17/10/2025

Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

26/01/2025

Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

18/10/2024

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

11/03/2024

Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

10/11/2023

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

23/01/2023

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

12/08/2022

Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

29/04/2022

Jong AZ

Helmond Sport

13/08/2021

Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

Recent Form

18/09/2026

Jong AZ

FC Volendam

14/09/2026

Jong PSV U21

Jong AZ

11/09/2026

Heracles

Jong AZ

05/09/2026

Dordrecht

Jong AZ

31/08/2026

Jong AZ

Jong Utrecht

28/08/2026

Jong AZ

MVV

21/08/2026

Emmen

Jong AZ

17/08/2026

De Graafschap

Jong AZ

26/09/2026

MVV

Helmond Sport

04/09/2026

Helmond Sport

VVV Venlo

28/08/2026

Jong Ajax

Helmond Sport

21/08/2026

Helmond Sport

Waalwijk

14/08/2026

Roda

Helmond Sport

League Table

Eerste Divisie 2026

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37:14	+23	29	DWWDW
2	VVV Venlo	12	8	1	3	34:20	+14	25	WDWWL
3	Emmen	12	8	1	3	26:19	+7	25	WWWDW
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25:12	+13	22	LLWWL
5	Roda	12	6	4	2	15:11	+4	22	WWDLW
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	23:20	+3	21	DWWDW
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29:20	+9	19	WDWLW
8	Jong AZ	12	5	2	5	31:26	+5	17	WDLWD
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16:17	-1	17	LWLDL
10	MVV	12	5	2	5	16:27	-11	17	DLLLW
11	Waalwijk	12	3	7	2	21:17	+4	16	DDLDL
12	Jong PSV U21	12	4	4	4	17:19	-2	16	WLDLD
13	Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18:21	-3	15	DWWDL
14	FC OSS	12	4	1	7	19:20	-1	13	DLWWL
15	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	18:29	-11	12	DWLDL
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15:26	-11	12	DLWDW
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16:25	-9	11	LLLDL
18	Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16:31	-15	11	LWLDW
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20:26	-6	9	LLLDL
20	Jong Utrecht	12	2	1	9	19:31	-12	7	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Heracles	12	37:14	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	34:20	25
3	Emmen	12	26:19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	25:12	22
5	Roda	12	15:11	22
6	NAC Breda	12	23:20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	29:20	19
8	Jong AZ	12	31:26	17
9	Vitesse	12	16:17	17
10	MVV	12	16:27	17
11	Waalwijk	12	21:17	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	17:19	16
13	Den Bosch	12	18:21	15
14	FC OSS	12	19:20	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	18:29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	15:26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	16:25	11
18	Dordrecht	12	16:31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	20:26	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	19:31	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31:12	+19	25	DWWDW
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22:7	+15	22	LLWWL
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	26:14	+12	21	WDWWL
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	22:18	+4	19	WWWDW
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20:19	+1	17	DWWDW
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	10:8	+2	16	WWDLW
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	13:20	-7	16	DLLLW
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22:17	+5	15	WDWLW
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	+4	14	DDLDL
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15:15	0	14	LWLDL
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	22:18	+4	13	WDLWD
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15:17	-2	13	WLDLD
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	15:15	0	12	DLWWL
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14:18	-4	11	DWWDL
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15:22	-7	11	LLLDL
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11	DLWDW
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9	LLLDL
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8	DWLDL
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8	LWLDW
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16:23	-7	7	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Heracles	10	31:12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	22:7	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	26:14	21
4	Emmen	10	22:18	19
5	NAC Breda	10	20:19	17
6	Roda	10	10:8	16
7	MVV	10	13:20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	22:17	15
9	Waalwijk	10	19:15	14
10	Vitesse	10	15:15	14
11	Jong AZ	10	22:18	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	15:17	13
13	FC OSS	10	15:15	12
14	Den Bosch	10	14:18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	15:22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	13:23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	16:19	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	13:25	8
19	Dordrecht	10	13:27	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	16:23	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Emmen	2	2	0	0	4:1	+3	6	WWWDW
2	Roda	2	2	0	0	5:3	+2	6	WWDLW
3	FC Volendam	2	1	1	0	7:3	+4	4	WDWLW
4	Heracles	2	1	1	0	6:2	+4	4	DWWDW
5	VVV Venlo	2	1	1	0	8:6	+2	4	WDWWL
6	NAC Breda	2	1	1	0	3:1	+2	4	DWWDW
7	Den Bosch	2	1	1	0	4:3	+1	4	DWWDL
8	Jong Ajax	2	1	1	0	5:4	+1	4	DWLDL
9	Jong AZ	2	1	1	0	9:8	+1	4	WDLWD
10	Jong PSV U21	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3	WLDLD
11	Dordrecht	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3	LWLDW
12	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	1:2	-1	3	LWLDL
13	Waalwijk	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2	DDLDL
14	De Graafschap	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1	DLWDW
15	FC OSS	2	0	1	1	4:5	-1	1	DLWWL
16	MVV	2	0	1	1	3:7	-4	1	DLLLW
17	FC Eindhoven	2	0	0	2	1:3	-2	0	LLLDL
18	Almere City FC	2	0	0	2	3:5	-2	0	LLWWL
19	Helmond Sport	2	0	0	2	4:7	-3	0	LLLDL
20	Jong Utrecht	2	0	0	2	3:8	-5	0	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Emmen	2	4:1	6
2	Roda	2	5:3	6
3	FC Volendam	2	7:3	4
4	Heracles	2	6:2	4
5	VVV Venlo	2	8:6	4
6	NAC Breda	2	3:1	4
7	Den Bosch	2	4:3	4
8	Jong Ajax	2	5:4	4
9	Jong AZ	2	9:8	4
10	Jong PSV U21	2	2:2	3
11	Dordrecht	2	3:4	3
12	Vitesse	2	1:2	3
13	Waalwijk	2	2:2	2
14	De Graafschap	2	2:3	1
15	FC OSS	2	4:5	1
16	MVV	2	3:7	1
17	FC Eindhoven	2	1:3	0
18	Almere City FC	2	3:5	0
19	Helmond Sport	2	4:7	0
20	Jong Utrecht	2	3:8	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

#	Team	G	Form
1	De Graafschap	0:0	DLWDW
2	VVV Venlo	0:0	WDWWL
3	Den Bosch	0:0	DWWDL
4	Dordrecht	0:0	LWLDW
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0	LLLDL
6	Emmen	0:0	WWWDW
7	Helmond Sport	0:0	LLLDL
8	MVV	0:0	DLLLW
9	Almere City FC	0:0	LLWWL
10	FC OSS	0:0	DLWWL
11	FC Volendam	0:0	WDWLW
12	Waalwijk	0:0	DDLDL
13	NAC Breda	0:0	DWWDW
14	Roda	0:0	WWDLW
15	Vitesse	0:0	LWLDL
16	Heracles	0:0	DWWDW
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0	WLDLD
18	Jong Ajax	0:0	DWLDL
19	Jong AZ	0:0	WDLWD
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0	LLLLW

#	Team	G
1	De Graafschap	0:0
2	VVV Venlo	0:0
3	Den Bosch	0:0
4	Dordrecht	0:0
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0
6	Emmen	0:0
7	Helmond Sport	0:0
8	MVV	0:0
9	Almere City FC	0:0
10	FC OSS	0:0
11	FC Volendam	0:0
12	Waalwijk	0:0
13	NAC Breda	0:0
14	Roda	0:0
15	Vitesse	0:0
16	Heracles	0:0
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0
18	Jong Ajax	0:0
19	Jong AZ	0:0
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

#	Team	G	Form
1	De Graafschap	0:0	DLWDW
2	VVV Venlo	0:0	WDWWL
3	Den Bosch	0:0	DWWDL
4	Dordrecht	0:0	LWLDW
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0	LLLDL
6	Emmen	0:0	WWWDW
7	Helmond Sport	0:0	LLLDL
8	MVV	0:0	DLLLW
9	Almere City FC	0:0	LLWWL
10	FC OSS	0:0	DLWWL
11	FC Volendam	0:0	WDWLW
12	Waalwijk	0:0	DDLDL
13	NAC Breda	0:0	DWWDW
14	Roda	0:0	WWDLW
15	Vitesse	0:0	LWLDL
16	Heracles	0:0	DWWDW
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0	WLDLD
18	Jong Ajax	0:0	DWLDL
19	Jong AZ	0:0	WDLWD
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0	LLLLW

#	Team	G
1	De Graafschap	0:0
2	VVV Venlo	0:0
3	Den Bosch	0:0
4	Dordrecht	0:0
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0
6	Emmen	0:0
7	Helmond Sport	0:0
8	MVV	0:0
9	Almere City FC	0:0
10	FC OSS	0:0
11	FC Volendam	0:0
12	Waalwijk	0:0
13	NAC Breda	0:0
14	Roda	0:0
15	Vitesse	0:0
16	Heracles	0:0
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0
18	Jong Ajax	0:0
19	Jong AZ	0:0
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0

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About the Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport forecast

The forecasts for this Eerste Divisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Jong AZ and Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie table

In the Eerste Divisie table, Jong AZ are 8th and Helmond Sport 19th, 8 points apart. League goal record so far: Jong AZ 31-26, Helmond Sport 20-26. The full standings are on the Eerste Divisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.

Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport: the result in context

Match Forecasts

Match Events

Lineups

Jong AZ Substitutes

Helmond Sport Substitutes

Match Stats

Team Comparison

AI Insights

Game State Tendencies

Head to Head

Previous meetings

Recent Form

League Table

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

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About the Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport forecast

How to Read These Forecasts

Jong AZ and Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie table

Key Factors for This Match