Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Prediction

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands · Regular Season - 11

Jong Ajax

2-1

Finished

HT 1-1

De Graafschap

Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam·Laurens Gerrets 19/10/2026

Jong Ajax

2-1

Finished

De Graafschap

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality

Complete

Match Importance

3.6 / 10

AI Best Pick

64%Trust

Double Chance

Draw or Away Win

1.49

SignalSOLIDModel38%SurpriseMediumGap-2.6%

Jong Ajax Rest

10 days

De Graafschap Rest

10 days

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: the result in context

Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 2-1 in the Eerste Divisie on 19 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: De Graafschap had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Jong Ajax.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 10 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5. Referee Laurens Gerrets averages 3.90 cards a game, 0.65 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result

35%2.46

25%4.03

40%2.35

Double Chance

60%1.53

65%1.49

Both Teams to Score

Yes

68%1.28

32%3.48

Goals

Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.36 = 2.62

Over 1.5

85%1.05

Over 2.5

67%1.25

Over 3.5

48%1.72

Under 1.5

15%7.95

Under 2.5

33%3.50

Under 3.5

52%2.05

Corners

Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.9 = 10.4

Over 8.5

69%1.22

Over 9.5

58%1.42

Over 10.5

47%1.71

Under 8.5

31%3.54

Under 9.5

42%2.58

Under 10.5

53%2.00

Cards

Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2 = 4.1

Over 3.5

59%-

Over 4.5

39%-

Under 3.5

41%-

Under 4.5

61%-

Match Events

14'Marvyn MuzunguFoul

21'Ryan van de PavertFoul

43'emre unuvar

45'Donny WarmerdamAssist: Mark Diemers

60'Kyano Kwint INJulian kania out

60'gabriele finocchiaro INBjorn van Zijl out

60'Levi Schoppema INJannes Luca·Wieckhoff out

72'Leo Salazar INAnass Moumane out

72'Rowan BesselinkFoul

78'Toivo Mero INNart Ahmeti-Grainca out

78'Jahyendrow Amour INSinclair de Falco out

78'Mohamed Jabou Abdalla INLevi Acheampong out

79'Jano MonserrateAssist: Ryan van de Pavert

85'Ryan van de Pavert INMylo van der Lans out

85'Jano Monserrate INJinairo Johnson out

85'Thomas Kok INClint Leemans out

Lineups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3Coach: Carlos García

De Graafschap

4-3-3Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Avg rating6.71

Avg rating6.56

6.71C. Setford

6.42R. van de Pavert

6.83G. Spina

6.64M. Muzungu

6.65J. Amour

8.010A. Monserrate

6.16T. Peters

6.18M. Abdalla

6.27L. Salazar

7.89E. Ünüvar

7.111P. Nash

7.61T. Wieggers

6.616N. Martens

6.33R. Besselink

6.415T. Kok

6.55L. Schoppema

5.710F. de Jong

7.723M. Diemers

8.18D. Warmerdam

6.620G. Finocchiaro

6.240K. Kwint

6.111T. Mero

Jong Ajax Substitutes

16A. Appiah

21L. Acheampong78'for Mohamed Jabou Abdalla6.8

19A. Camara

12A. Hani

20Jinairo Johnson85'for Jano Monserrate6.5

24A. Moumane72'for Leo Salazar7.0

22J. Simeon

23P. Da Silva

18Sinclair de Falco78'for Jahyendrow Amour6.3

17M. van der Lans85'for Ryan van de Pavert6.4

25D. van der Vaart

30V. van der Velde

De Graafschap Substitutes

2J. Wieckhoff60'for Levi Schoppema6.2

28J. Triep

21K. Symons

22P. Reverson

6C. Leemans85'for Thomas Kok6.1

17N. Kaninda

9J. Kania60'for Kyano Kwint6.3

33R. Jonkers

4J. Hardeman

14Gijs Bolk

27N. Ahmeti-Grainca78'for Toivo Mero5.9

7Bjorn van Zijl60'for gabriele finocchiaro6.7

Match Stats

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap

43%Ball Possession57%

5Corner Kicks5

3Yellow Cards1

19Total Shots11

11Shots on Goal5

5Shots off Goal3

11Shots Inside Box7

8Shots Outside Box4

3Blocked Shots3

17Fouls10

2Offsides2

4Goalkeeper Saves7

344Total Passes450

284Passes Accurate381

10Free Kicks17

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

1433Elo Rating 1510

1.41Attack 1.36

0.53Defense 1.75

23%Hit Rate 34%

18.4Shots per Game 13.8

6.8Shots on Target 4.5

4.9Corners per Game 5.4

2.7Cards per Game 1.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Jong Ajax

Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

De Graafschap

Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Jong Ajax4Wins · 40%

Draws220%

De Graafschap

4Wins · 40%

3.2Avg Goals

50%Both teams scored5 of 10

60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

06/02/2026

De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

03/10/2025

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

19/04/2025

De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

09/12/2024

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

11/03/2024

De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

21/08/2023

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

13/01/2023

De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

22/08/2022

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

06/05/2022

Jong Ajax

De Graafschap

26/11/2021

De Graafschap

Jong Ajax

Recent Form

09/10/2026

Jong Ajax

VVV Venlo

31/08/2026

Jong PSV U21

Jong Ajax

28/08/2026

Jong Ajax

Helmond Sport

22/08/2026

NAC Breda

Jong Ajax

17/08/2026

Jong Ajax

Emmen

27/09/2026

De Graafschap

Den Bosch

20/09/2026

De Graafschap

NAC Breda

11/09/2026

Emmen

De Graafschap

04/09/2026

Heracles

De Graafschap

29/08/2026

De Graafschap

Almere City FC

23/08/2026

VVV Venlo

De Graafschap

17/08/2026

De Graafschap

Jong AZ

09/08/2026

Helmond Sport

De Graafschap

Referee Profile

Laurens Gerrets132 matches

3.90Cards per match

3.72Yellow cards per match

0.18Red cards per match

24.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Laurens Gerrets3.90

Other referees3.25

3.90 cards a match, 0.65 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.25).

Cards come from 128 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Eerste Divisie 2026

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Heracles	12	9	2	1	37:14	+23	29	DWWDW
2	VVV Venlo	12	8	1	3	34:20	+14	25	WDWWL
3	Emmen	12	8	1	3	26:19	+7	25	WWWDW
4	Almere City FC	12	7	1	4	25:12	+13	22	LLWWL
5	Roda	12	6	4	2	15:11	+4	22	WWDLW
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	23:20	+3	21	DWWDW
7	FC Volendam	12	6	1	5	29:20	+9	19	WDWLW
8	Jong AZ	12	5	2	5	31:26	+5	17	WDLWD
9	Vitesse	12	5	2	5	16:17	-1	17	LWLDL
10	MVV	12	5	2	5	16:27	-11	17	DLLLW
11	Waalwijk	12	3	7	2	21:17	+4	16	DDLDL
12	Jong PSV U21	12	4	4	4	17:19	-2	16	WLDLD
13	Den Bosch	12	4	3	5	18:21	-3	15	DWWDL
14	FC OSS	12	4	1	7	19:20	-1	13	DLWWL
15	Jong Ajax	12	3	3	6	18:29	-11	12	DWLDL
16	De Graafschap	12	3	3	6	15:26	-11	12	DLWDW
17	FC Eindhoven	12	3	2	7	16:25	-9	11	LLLDL
18	Dordrecht	12	3	2	7	16:31	-15	11	LWLDW
19	Helmond Sport	12	2	3	7	20:26	-6	9	LLLDL
20	Jong Utrecht	12	2	1	9	19:31	-12	7	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Heracles	12	37:14	29
2	VVV Venlo	12	34:20	25
3	Emmen	12	26:19	25
4	Almere City FC	12	25:12	22
5	Roda	12	15:11	22
6	NAC Breda	12	23:20	21
7	FC Volendam	12	29:20	19
8	Jong AZ	12	31:26	17
9	Vitesse	12	16:17	17
10	MVV	12	16:27	17
11	Waalwijk	12	21:17	16
12	Jong PSV U21	12	17:19	16
13	Den Bosch	12	18:21	15
14	FC OSS	12	19:20	13
15	Jong Ajax	12	18:29	12
16	De Graafschap	12	15:26	12
17	FC Eindhoven	12	16:25	11
18	Dordrecht	12	16:31	11
19	Helmond Sport	12	20:26	9
20	Jong Utrecht	12	19:31	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31:12	+19	25	DWWDW
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	22:7	+15	22	LLWWL
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	26:14	+12	21	WDWWL
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	22:18	+4	19	WWWDW
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20:19	+1	17	DWWDW
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	10:8	+2	16	WWDLW
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	13:20	-7	16	DLLLW
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22:17	+5	15	WDWLW
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	+4	14	DDLDL
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15:15	0	14	LWLDL
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	22:18	+4	13	WDLWD
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15:17	-2	13	WLDLD
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	15:15	0	12	DLWWL
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	14:18	-4	11	DWWDL
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	15:22	-7	11	LLLDL
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11	DLWDW
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9	LLLDL
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8	DWLDL
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8	LWLDW
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16:23	-7	7	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Heracles	10	31:12	25
2	Almere City FC	10	22:7	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	26:14	21
4	Emmen	10	22:18	19
5	NAC Breda	10	20:19	17
6	Roda	10	10:8	16
7	MVV	10	13:20	16
8	FC Volendam	10	22:17	15
9	Waalwijk	10	19:15	14
10	Vitesse	10	15:15	14
11	Jong AZ	10	22:18	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	15:17	13
13	FC OSS	10	15:15	12
14	Den Bosch	10	14:18	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	15:22	11
16	De Graafschap	10	13:23	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	16:19	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	13:25	8
19	Dordrecht	10	13:27	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	16:23	7

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	Pts	Form
1	Emmen	2	2	0	0	4:1	+3	6	WWWDW
2	Roda	2	2	0	0	5:3	+2	6	WWDLW
3	FC Volendam	2	1	1	0	7:3	+4	4	WDWLW
4	Heracles	2	1	1	0	6:2	+4	4	DWWDW
5	VVV Venlo	2	1	1	0	8:6	+2	4	WDWWL
6	NAC Breda	2	1	1	0	3:1	+2	4	DWWDW
7	Den Bosch	2	1	1	0	4:3	+1	4	DWWDL
8	Jong Ajax	2	1	1	0	5:4	+1	4	DWLDL
9	Jong AZ	2	1	1	0	9:8	+1	4	WDLWD
10	Jong PSV U21	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3	WLDLD
11	Dordrecht	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3	LWLDW
12	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	1:2	-1	3	LWLDL
13	Waalwijk	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2	DDLDL
14	De Graafschap	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1	DLWDW
15	FC OSS	2	0	1	1	4:5	-1	1	DLWWL
16	MVV	2	0	1	1	3:7	-4	1	DLLLW
17	FC Eindhoven	2	0	0	2	1:3	-2	0	LLLDL
18	Almere City FC	2	0	0	2	3:5	-2	0	LLWWL
19	Helmond Sport	2	0	0	2	4:7	-3	0	LLLDL
20	Jong Utrecht	2	0	0	2	3:8	-5	0	LLLLW

#	Team	MP	G	Pts
1	Emmen	2	4:1	6
2	Roda	2	5:3	6
3	FC Volendam	2	7:3	4
4	Heracles	2	6:2	4
5	VVV Venlo	2	8:6	4
6	NAC Breda	2	3:1	4
7	Den Bosch	2	4:3	4
8	Jong Ajax	2	5:4	4
9	Jong AZ	2	9:8	4
10	Jong PSV U21	2	2:2	3
11	Dordrecht	2	3:4	3
12	Vitesse	2	1:2	3
13	Waalwijk	2	2:2	2
14	De Graafschap	2	2:3	1
15	FC OSS	2	4:5	1
16	MVV	2	3:7	1
17	FC Eindhoven	2	1:3	0
18	Almere City FC	2	3:5	0
19	Helmond Sport	2	4:7	0
20	Jong Utrecht	2	3:8	0

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

#	Team	G	Form
1	De Graafschap	0:0	DLWDW
2	VVV Venlo	0:0	WDWWL
3	Den Bosch	0:0	DWWDL
4	Dordrecht	0:0	LWLDW
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0	LLLDL
6	Emmen	0:0	WWWDW
7	Helmond Sport	0:0	LLLDL
8	MVV	0:0	DLLLW
9	Almere City FC	0:0	LLWWL
10	FC OSS	0:0	DLWWL
11	FC Volendam	0:0	WDWLW
12	Waalwijk	0:0	DDLDL
13	NAC Breda	0:0	DWWDW
14	Roda	0:0	WWDLW
15	Vitesse	0:0	LWLDL
16	Heracles	0:0	DWWDW
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0	WLDLD
18	Jong Ajax	0:0	DWLDL
19	Jong AZ	0:0	WDLWD
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0	LLLLW

#	Team	G
1	De Graafschap	0:0
2	VVV Venlo	0:0
3	Den Bosch	0:0
4	Dordrecht	0:0
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0
6	Emmen	0:0
7	Helmond Sport	0:0
8	MVV	0:0
9	Almere City FC	0:0
10	FC OSS	0:0
11	FC Volendam	0:0
12	Waalwijk	0:0
13	NAC Breda	0:0
14	Roda	0:0
15	Vitesse	0:0
16	Heracles	0:0
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0
18	Jong Ajax	0:0
19	Jong AZ	0:0
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

#	Team	G	Form
1	De Graafschap	0:0	DLWDW
2	VVV Venlo	0:0	WDWWL
3	Den Bosch	0:0	DWWDL
4	Dordrecht	0:0	LWLDW
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0	LLLDL
6	Emmen	0:0	WWWDW
7	Helmond Sport	0:0	LLLDL
8	MVV	0:0	DLLLW
9	Almere City FC	0:0	LLWWL
10	FC OSS	0:0	DLWWL
11	FC Volendam	0:0	WDWLW
12	Waalwijk	0:0	DDLDL
13	NAC Breda	0:0	DWWDW
14	Roda	0:0	WWDLW
15	Vitesse	0:0	LWLDL
16	Heracles	0:0	DWWDW
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0	WLDLD
18	Jong Ajax	0:0	DWLDL
19	Jong AZ	0:0	WDLWD
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0	LLLLW

#	Team	G
1	De Graafschap	0:0
2	VVV Venlo	0:0
3	Den Bosch	0:0
4	Dordrecht	0:0
5	FC Eindhoven	0:0
6	Emmen	0:0
7	Helmond Sport	0:0
8	MVV	0:0
9	Almere City FC	0:0
10	FC OSS	0:0
11	FC Volendam	0:0
12	Waalwijk	0:0
13	NAC Breda	0:0
14	Roda	0:0
15	Vitesse	0:0
16	Heracles	0:0
17	Jong PSV U21	0:0
18	Jong Ajax	0:0
19	Jong AZ	0:0
20	Jong Utrecht	0:0

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About the Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap forecast

The forecasts for this Eerste Divisie match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie table

In the Eerste Divisie table, Jong Ajax (15th) and De Graafschap (16th) are level on 12 points. League goal record so far: Jong Ajax 18-29, De Graafschap 15-26. The full standings are on the Eerste Divisie Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.

Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: the result in context

Match Forecasts

Match Events

Lineups

Jong Ajax Substitutes

De Graafschap Substitutes

Match Stats

Team Comparison

AI Insights

Game State Tendencies

Head to Head

Previous meetings

Recent Form

Referee Profile

Compared with other referees

League Table

Eerste Divisie: Regular season

Eerste Divisie: Period 1

Eerste Divisie: Period 2

Eerste Divisie: Period 3

Eerste Divisie: Period 4

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About the Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap forecast

How to Read These Forecasts

Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie table

Key Factors for This Match