Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction

Kilmarnock
0-4
Finished
HT 0-3
Dundee Utd
Rugby Park, Kilmarnock·N. Walsh 29/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
2.00
SignalNEUTRALModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+9.9%
Kilmarnock Rest
14 days
Dundee Utd Rest
6 days

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd: the result in context

Dundee Utd beat Kilmarnock 4-0 in the Premiership on 29 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Kilmarnock had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Dundee Utd.

Kilmarnock have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.5 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.46
X
27%3.50
2
30%2.64
Double Chance
1X
70%1.44
X2
57%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.57
No
45%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.62 + 1.09 = 2.71
Over 1.5
79%1.21
Over 2.5
53%1.70
Over 3.5
28%2.72
Under 1.5
21%4.24
Under 2.5
47%2.14
Under 3.5
72%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
64%1.30
Over 9.5
53%1.52
Over 10.5
41%1.85
Under 8.5
36%3.05
Under 9.5
47%2.35
Under 10.5
59%1.85
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.2 = 4
Over 3.5
51%1.52
Over 4.5
31%2.02
Under 3.5
49%2.28
Under 4.5
69%1.73

Match Events

10'Bert EsselinkFoul
12'Emmanuel AgyeiAssist: Mehdi Merghem
19'Robbie Deas INGeorge Stanger out
35'Cathal McCarthyFoul
36'Zachary Sapsford(Penalty)
38'Zachary SapsfordFoul
41'Will FerryAssist: Mehdi Merghem
43'Joe HugillFoul
45'Jonathan Meier INJamie Brandon out
45'Nicky Clescenco INDjenairo Daniels out
63'Mehdi Merghem INJesse Randall out
63'abdoulaye yoro INLachlan Rose out
64'Mark O'Hara INBailey Rice out
64'Tyreece John-Jules INCole Burke out
69'Will FerryFoul
74'Zachary Sapsford INNeil Farrugia out
77'Jesse RandallAssist: Will Ferry
79'Daniel Bennie INDario Naamo out
90+2'Bailey RiceFoul

Lineups

Kilmarnock
4-4-2Coach: Neil McCann
Dundee Utd
4-3-3Coach: Jim Goodwin
Avg rating6.00
Avg rating7.47
M. Stryjek6.01M. Stryjek
J. Meier5.619J. Meier
C. McCarthy6.14C. McCarthy
R. Deas5.86R. Deas
M. Schjønning-Larsen5.521M. Schjønning-Larsen
N. Cleșcenco6.720N. Cleșcenco
M. O'Hara5.95M. O'Hara
T. Lowery5.718T. Lowery
G. Kiltie6.511G. Kiltie
J. Hugill6.39J. Hugill
T. John-Jules6.410T. John-Jules
J. Walton8.21J. Walton
B. Esselink8.03B. Esselink
M. Forbes7.518M. Forbes
W. Ferry8.811W. Ferry
Abdoulaye Yoro7.026A. Yoro
E. Agyei7.912E. Agyei
Panutche Camará7.48P. Camará
M. Merghem7.97M. Merghem
Z. Sapsford7.19Z. Sapsford
D. Bennie6.977D. Bennie

Kilmarnock Substitutes

39E. Bowie
2J. Brandon45'for Jonathan Meier5.5
29D. Daniels45'for Nicky Clescenco6.4
7R. McKenzie
49B. Rice64'for Mark O'Hara90+2'5.6
14G. Stanger19'for Robbie Deas6.1
15J. Yfeko

Dundee Utd Substitutes

4I. Iovu
93I. Metsoko
22D. Naamo79'for Daniel Bennie6.8
21J. Randall63'for Mehdi Merghem77'8.2
15L. Rose63'for abdoulaye yoro6.5
6R. Graham
20N. Farrugia74'for Zachary Sapsford6.5
19K. Ciubotaru
30J. Amissah

Match Stats

KilmarnockDundee Utd
51%Ball Possession49%
3Corner Kicks5
3Yellow Cards3
16Total Shots21
4Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal9
10Shots Inside Box15
6Shots Outside Box6
8Blocked Shots4
11Fouls12
0Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves5
435Total Passes419
344Passes Accurate353
79%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

KilmarnockKilmarnock
Dundee UtdDundee Utd
1486Elo Rating 1586
1.16Attack 2.01
0.48Defense 1.81
19%Hit Rate 54%
12.2Shots per Game 13.5
2.8Shots on Target 6.7
4.7Corners per Game 5.7
1.9Cards per Game 2.3

Game State Tendencies

KilmarnockKilmarnock
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Dundee UtdDundee Utd
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 0.4 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

KilmarnockKilmarnock6Wins · 60%
Draws440%
Dundee UtdDundee Utd0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership02/05/2026
KilmarnockDundee Utd
30
Premiership21/02/2026
Dundee UtdKilmarnock
11
Premiership29/11/2025
KilmarnockDundee Utd
11
Premiership27/09/2025
Dundee UtdKilmarnock
02
League Cup17/08/2025
KilmarnockDundee Utd
21
Premiership01/02/2025
KilmarnockDundee Utd
10
Premiership07/12/2024
Dundee UtdKilmarnock
11
Premiership28/09/2024
KilmarnockDundee Utd
33
Premiership24/05/2023
Dundee UtdKilmarnock
03
FA Cup11/02/2023
Dundee UtdKilmarnock
01

Recent Form

KilmarnockKilmarnock
7W0D3L
14/08/2026
KilmarnockAyr Utd
32
W
09/08/2026
KilmarnockCeltic
15
L
02/08/2026
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
43
L
25/07/2026
PeterheadKilmarnock
5040
L
21/07/2026
KilmarnockHamilton Academical
10
W
18/07/2026
Elgin CityKilmarnock
01
W
14/07/2026
KilmarnockRaith Rovers
4020
W
04/07/2026
LinfieldKilmarnock
23
W
01/07/2026
GlentoranKilmarnock
04
W
17/05/2026
LivingstonKilmarnock
14
W
Dundee UtdDundee Utd
3W2D5L
22/08/2026
Dundee UtdDundee
02
L
15/08/2026
Dundee UtdCeltic
04
L
09/08/2026
Heart Of MidlothianDundee Utd
40
L
31/07/2026
Dundee UtdRangers
11
D
25/07/2026
Salford CityDundee Utd
32
L
21/07/2026
Dundee UtdSpartans
40
W
18/07/2026
Dundee UtdArbroath
30
W
14/07/2026
MontroseDundee Utd
10
L
11/07/2026
Stirling AlbionDundee Utd
01
W
17/05/2026
ST MirrenDundee Utd
11
D

Referee Profile

N. Walsh216 matches

4.17Cards per match
3.97Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
24.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

N. Walsh4.17
Other referees3.99

4.17 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.99).

Cards come from 149 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic1291227:10+1728LDWWW
2RangersRangers1173119:9+1024DWDWW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1162324:17+720DWLWD
4FalkirkFalkirk1253415:12+318WWWWL
5DundeeDundee1152417:13+417WLDWW
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd1144316:16016DWDWW
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1235415:19-414DDLDW
8ST MirrenST Mirren1242612:20-814LDWLL
9MotherwellMotherwell1233614:20-612WDLLL
10AberdeenAberdeen1132612:14-211LLWLD
11KilmarnockKilmarnock1223713:28-159DLLWL
12HibernianHibernian1122711:17-68DLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic1227:1028
2RangersRangers1119:924
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1124:1720
4FalkirkFalkirk1215:1218
5DundeeDundee1117:1317
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd1116:1616
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1215:1914
8ST MirrenST Mirren1212:2014
9MotherwellMotherwell1214:2012
10AberdeenAberdeen1112:1411
11KilmarnockKilmarnock1213:289
12HibernianHibernian1111:178
PromotionRelegation

About the Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd forecast

The forecasts for this Premiership match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd in the Premiership table

In the Premiership table, Dundee Utd are 6th and Kilmarnock 11th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Kilmarnock 13-28, Dundee Utd 16-16. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Dundee Utd have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.