Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction

Kilmarnock
1-5
Finished
HT 0-3
Celtic
Rugby Park, Kilmarnock·R. Lee 09/08/2026
KilmarnockKilmarnock
1-5
Finished
CelticCeltic

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.76
SignalSOLIDModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+11.9%
Kilmarnock Rest
6 days
Celtic Rest
5 days

Kilmarnock vs Celtic: the result in context

Celtic beat Kilmarnock 5-1 in the Premiership on 9 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Kilmarnock had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Celtic.

Celtic have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.7 goals a game. Referee R. Lee averages 3.42 cards a game, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
21%6.90
X
27%5.00
2
52%1.36
Double Chance
1X
47%2.90
X2
79%1.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.62
No
45%2.18
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 1.48 = 2.73
Over 1.5
76%1.13
Over 2.5
51%1.42
Over 3.5
26%2.10
Under 1.5
24%5.75
Under 2.5
49%2.75
Under 3.5
74%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.8 = 9.5
Over 8.5
62%1.35
Over 9.5
50%1.60
Over 10.5
39%1.98
Under 8.5
38%2.92
Under 9.5
50%2.18
Under 10.5
61%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8
Over 3.5
47%1.78
Over 4.5
31%2.33
Under 3.5
53%1.98
Under 4.5
69%1.49

Match Events

2'K. HoghAssist: A. Engels
26'J. HugillFoul
33'K. HoghAssist: B. Nygren
35'K. HoghAssist: C. Duran
46'A. Johnston INC. Donovan out
47'B. Nygren
56'M. Schjonning-LarsenAssist: T. Lowery
64'C. Duran INS. Tounekti out
74'Yang Hyun-Jun INL. McCowan out
74'B. Nygren INJ. Forrest out
74'M. Schjonning-Larsen INM. O'Hara out
75'T. John-Jules INB. Rice out
75'L. McCowan
82'K. Hogh INC. Osmand out

Lineups

Kilmarnock
4-3-1-2Coach: Neil McCann
Celtic
4-2-3-1Coach: Martin O'Neill
Avg rating6.74
Avg rating7.41
Max Stryjek8.31M. Stryjek
Jamie Brandon6.02J. Brandon
George Stanger5.914G. Stanger
Johnly Yfeko6.315J. Yfeko
Michael Schjønning-Larsen6.621M. Schjønning-Larsen
Erik Ring6.38E. Ring
Aaron Tshibola7.536A. Tshibola
Tom Lowery7.518T. Lowery
Greg KiltieC7.011G. Kiltie
Joe Hugill6.29J. Hugill
Tyreece John-Jules7.010T. John-Jules
Viljami Sinisalo7.71V. Sinisalo
Alistair Johnston7.02A. Johnston
Cameron Carter-Vickers7.220C. Carter-Vickers
Auston Trusty7.96A. Trusty
Kieran Tierney8.663K. Tierney
Callum McGregorC7.242C. McGregor
Arne Engels8.027A. Engels
Camilo Durán7.711C. Durán
Benjamin Nygren8.38B. Nygren
Yang Hyun-Jun6.713Y. Hyun-Jun
Kasper Høgh9.29K. Høgh

Kilmarnock Substitutes

12Calum Ferrie
25Ethan Brown
39Euan Bowie
20Nicky Cleșcenco
7Rory McKenzie
5Mark O'Hara6.7
22Jack Thomson
49Bailey Rice75'for T. John-Jules6.3
27Ieuan Owen

Celtic Substitutes

31Ross Doohan
47Dane Murray
51Colby Donovan46'for A. Johnston6.3
21Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
49James Forrest74'for B. Nygren6.5
17Sebastian Tounekti64'for C. Duran6.7
41Reo Hatate
14Luke McCowan74'for Yang Hyun-Jun75'7.3
19Callum Osmand82'for K. Hogh6.3

Match Stats

KilmarnockCeltic
36%Ball Possession64%
5Corner Kicks7
1Yellow Cards0
10Total Shots33
6Shots on Goal16
2Shots off Goal10
10Shots Inside Box29
0Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots7
12Fouls10
1Offsides0
11Goalkeeper Saves4
370Total Passes661
301Passes Accurate601
81%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

KilmarnockKilmarnock
CelticCeltic
1488Elo Rating 1727
1.41Attack 1.67
0.44Defense 1.17
17%Hit Rate 44%
15.8Shots per Game 17.5
4.0Shots on Target 6.5
6.5Corners per Game 8.4
2.2Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

KilmarnockKilmarnock
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
CelticCeltic
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

KilmarnockKilmarnock1Wins · 10%
Draws110%
CelticCeltic8Wins · 80%
3.7Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
80%3+ goals8 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership15/02/2026
KilmarnockCeltic
23
Premiership09/11/2025
CelticKilmarnock
40
Premiership14/09/2025
KilmarnockCeltic
12
Premiership12/04/2025
CelticKilmarnock
51
FA Cup18/01/2025
CelticKilmarnock
21
Premiership10/11/2024
KilmarnockCeltic
02
Premiership04/08/2024
CelticKilmarnock
40
Premiership15/05/2024
KilmarnockCeltic
05
Premiership17/02/2024
CelticKilmarnock
11
Premiership10/12/2023
KilmarnockCeltic
21

Recent Form

KilmarnockKilmarnock
8W0D2L
02/08/2026
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
43
L
25/07/2026
PeterheadKilmarnock
5040
L
21/07/2026
KilmarnockHamilton Academical
10
W
18/07/2026
Elgin CityKilmarnock
01
W
14/07/2026
KilmarnockRaith Rovers
4020
W
04/07/2026
LinfieldKilmarnock
23
W
01/07/2026
GlentoranKilmarnock
04
W
17/05/2026
LivingstonKilmarnock
14
W
12/05/2026
KilmarnockDundee
31
W
09/05/2026
ST MirrenKilmarnock
03
W
CelticCeltic
6W3D1L
03/08/2026
CelticDundee
10
W
25/07/2026
CelticAC Milan
22
D
18/07/2026
CelticMiddlesbrough
11
D
14/07/2026
Sporting CPCeltic
41
L
07/07/2026
ShelbourneCeltic
11
D
23/05/2026
CelticDunfermline
31
W
16/05/2026
CelticHeart Of Midlothian
31
W
13/05/2026
MotherwellCeltic
23
W
10/05/2026
CelticRangers
31
W
03/05/2026
HibernianCeltic
12
W

Referee Profile

R. Lee85 matches

3.42Cards per match
3.21Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

R. Lee3.42
Other referees4.18

3.42 cards a match, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.18).

Cards come from 19 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic1291227:10+1728LDWWW
2RangersRangers1283121:9+1227WDWDW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1162324:17+720DWLWD
4FalkirkFalkirk1253415:12+318WWWWL
5DundeeDundee1252518:15+317LWLDW
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd1245317:17017DDWDW
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1345417:20-317WDDLD
8ST MirrenST Mirren1342712:22-1014LLDWL
9MotherwellMotherwell1334615:21-613DWDLL
10HibernianHibernian1232715:17-211WDLLL
11AberdeenAberdeen1232712:18-611LLLWL
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1223713:28-159DLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic1227:1028
2RangersRangers1221:927
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1124:1720
4FalkirkFalkirk1215:1218
5DundeeDundee1218:1517
6Dundee UtdDundee Utd1217:1717
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1317:2017
8ST MirrenST Mirren1312:2214
9MotherwellMotherwell1315:2113
10HibernianHibernian1215:1711
11AberdeenAberdeen1212:1811
12KilmarnockKilmarnock1213:289
PromotionRelegation

About the Kilmarnock vs Celtic forecast

The forecasts for this Premiership match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Kilmarnock and Celtic in the Premiership table

The table shows a wide gap: Celtic are 1st in the Premiership, while Kilmarnock sit 12th, 19 points behind. League goal record so far: Kilmarnock 13-28, Celtic 27-10. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.