ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Prediction

ST Johnstone
4-3
Finished
HT 1-1
Kilmarnock
McDiarmid Park, Perth 02/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.67
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+13.8%
ST Johnstone Rest
7 days
Kilmarnock Rest
7 days

ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: result, form and history

ST Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4-3 in the Premiership on 2 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Kilmarnock tend to win more corners, 4.7 a game to 2.5 for ST Johnstone.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
47%2.25
X
24%3.40
2
29%3.10
Double Chance
1X
71%1.35
X2
54%1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.65
No
46%2.11
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.33 + 1.12 = 2.45
Over 1.5
72%1.25
Over 2.5
45%1.84
Over 3.5
24%3.10
Under 1.5
28%3.65
Under 2.5
55%1.94
Under 3.5
76%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.9 = 9.2
Over 8.5
59%1.37
Over 9.5
50%1.61
Over 10.5
39%2.01
Under 8.5
41%2.80
Under 9.5
50%2.14
Under 10.5
61%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
50%1.48
Over 4.5
31%2.10
Under 3.5
50%2.38
Under 4.5
69%1.67

Match Events

16'J. FowlerAssist: J. Gullan
21'T. John-JulesFoul
37'G. KiltieAssist: T. Lowery
45+2'T. John-Jules INJ. Brandon out
45+4'L. SmithFoul
47'C. DiabateAssist: J. Gullan
49'J. Hugill
52'C. DiabateUnsportsmanlike conduct
53'J. HoltOG
59'A. Tshibola INB. Rice out
59'N. Clescenco INR. Mathurin out
61'J. Holt INL. Chalmers out
61'R. Paton INK. Fotheringham out
66'E. Ring INM. O'Hara out
69'R. McAlear INL. Lloyd out
69'M. Schjonning-LarsenOG
80'K. FotheringhamAssist: J. Fowler
83'J. BrandonFoul
84'J. Fowler INM. Tait out
85'J. Gullan INJ. Baird out
85'G. Kiltie INI. Owen out

Lineups

ST Johnstone
4-2-3-1Coach: Simo Valakari
Kilmarnock
4-4-1-1Coach: Neil McCann
Avg rating6.90
Avg rating6.35
Toby Steward6.21T. Steward
Liam Smith6.333L. Smith
Zach Mitchell6.75Z. Mitchell
Cheick Diabate7.63C. Diabate
Matty Foulds6.714M. Foulds
Reece McAlear6.342R. McAlear
Jason HoltC7.08J. Holt
Sam Stanton6.511S. Stanton
Jamie Gullan8.310J. Gullan
Ruari Paton6.699R. Paton
Josh Fowler8.39J. Fowler
Max Stryjek6.31M. Stryjek
Erik Ring6.08E. Ring
Ethan Brown5.925E. Brown
George Stanger6.514G. Stanger
Michael Schjønning-Larsen5.221M. Schjønning-Larsen
Greg KiltieC7.211G. Kiltie
Aaron Tshibola5.936A. Tshibola
Tom Lowery6.918T. Lowery
Nicky Cleșcenco6.220N. Cleșcenco
Tyreece John-Jules5.910T. John-Jules
Joe Hugill7.69J. Hugill

ST Johnstone Substitutes

23Logan Chalmers61'for J. Holt6.3
18Kai Fotheringham61'for R. Paton80'8.0
17Louis LLoyd
25Macaulay Tait84'for J. Fowler6.5
15Jack Baird85'for J. Gullan6.9
20Ross Sinclair
4Morgan Boyes
19Danny Finlayson
7Taylor Steven

Kilmarnock Substitutes

2Jamie Brandon45+2'for T. John-Jules83'5.9
49Bailey Rice59'for A. Tshibola6.6
23Roshaun Mathurin59'for N. Clescenco6.3
5Mark O'Hara6.9
27Ieuan Owen85'for G. Kiltie6.3
12Calum Ferrie
39Euan Bowie
15Johnly Yfeko
7Rory McKenzie

Match Stats

ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
55%Ball Possession45%
6Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box6
5Shots Outside Box1
5Blocked Shots0
6Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
534Total Passes428
445Passes Accurate331
83%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
KilmarnockKilmarnock
1576Elo Rating 1486
1.04Attack 1.16
1.21Defense 0.48
17%Hit Rate 19%
10.2Shots per Game 12.2
3.1Shots on Target 2.8
2.5Corners per Game 4.7
1.8Cards per Game 1.9

Game State Tendencies

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
KilmarnockKilmarnock
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone5Wins · 50%
Draws110%
KilmarnockKilmarnock4Wins · 40%
2.2Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premiership03/05/2025
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
02
Premiership15/02/2025
KilmarnockST Johnstone
31
Premiership23/11/2024
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
10
Premiership11/08/2024
KilmarnockST Johnstone
03
Premiership13/04/2024
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
02
Premiership23/12/2023
KilmarnockST Johnstone
21
Premiership01/11/2023
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
21
Premiership20/05/2023
KilmarnockST Johnstone
01
Premiership18/03/2023
KilmarnockST Johnstone
11
Premiership29/10/2022
ST JohnstoneKilmarnock
10

Recent Form

ST JohnstoneST Johnstone
8W0D2L
25/07/2026
ST JohnstoneEast Fife
4151
L
21/07/2026
Inverness CTST Johnstone
10
L
18/07/2026
ST JohnstoneMorton
30
W
14/07/2026
Linlithgow RoseST Johnstone
02
W
11/07/2026
Cove RangersST Johnstone
24
W
04/07/2026
MontroseST Johnstone
03
W
30/06/2026
Forfar AthleticST Johnstone
04
W
01/05/2026
Ayr UtdST Johnstone
01
W
24/04/2026
ST JohnstoneRaith Rovers
20
W
21/04/2026
DunfermlineST Johnstone
02
W
KilmarnockKilmarnock
9W0D1L
25/07/2026
PeterheadKilmarnock
5040
L
21/07/2026
KilmarnockHamilton Academical
10
W
18/07/2026
Elgin CityKilmarnock
01
W
14/07/2026
KilmarnockRaith Rovers
4020
W
04/07/2026
LinfieldKilmarnock
23
W
01/07/2026
GlentoranKilmarnock
04
W
17/05/2026
LivingstonKilmarnock
14
W
12/05/2026
KilmarnockDundee
31
W
09/05/2026
ST MirrenKilmarnock
03
W
02/05/2026
KilmarnockDundee Utd
30
W

League Table

Premiership 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1CelticCeltic1191127:8+1928DWWWL
2RangersRangers1173119:9+1024DWDWW
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1162324:17+720DWLWD
4DundeeDundee1152417:13+417WLDWW
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1144316:16016DWDWW
6FalkirkFalkirk1143413:12+115WWWLD
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1235415:19-414DDLDW
8ST MirrenST Mirren1242612:20-814LDWLL
9MotherwellMotherwell1233614:20-612WDLLL
10AberdeenAberdeen1132612:14-211LLWLD
11KilmarnockKilmarnock1223713:28-159DLLWL
12HibernianHibernian1122711:17-68DLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1CelticCeltic1127:828
2RangersRangers1119:924
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian1124:1720
4DundeeDundee1117:1317
5Dundee UtdDundee Utd1116:1616
6FalkirkFalkirk1113:1215
7ST JohnstoneST Johnstone1215:1914
8ST MirrenST Mirren1212:2014
9MotherwellMotherwell1214:2012
10AberdeenAberdeen1112:1411
11KilmarnockKilmarnock1213:289
12HibernianHibernian1111:178
PromotionRelegation

About the ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock in the Premiership table

In the Premiership table, ST Johnstone are 7th and Kilmarnock 11th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: ST Johnstone 15-19, Kilmarnock 13-28. The full standings are on the Premiership Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.