Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Prediction

Luxembourg
0-2
Finished
HT 0-2
Bulgaria
Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg·Andris Treimanis 06/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.31
SignalGOODModel48%SurpriseMediumGap-2.3%
Luxembourg Rest
3 days
Bulgaria Rest
3 days

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: the result in context

Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 6 Oct 2026. That went against recent form: Luxembourg had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Bulgaria.

Their 5 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
45%2.24
X
29%3.10
2
26%3.40
Double Chance
1X
74%1.31
X2
55%1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.07
No
56%1.67
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 0.86 = 2.15
Over 1.5
67%1.47
Over 2.5
41%2.54
Over 3.5
24%4.80
Under 1.5
33%2.50
Under 2.5
59%1.52
Under 3.5
76%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 3.9 = 8.8
Over 8.5
55%1.73
Over 9.5
44%2.23
Over 10.5
32%3.00
Under 8.5
45%2.00
Under 9.5
56%1.59
Under 10.5
68%1.33
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.5 = 4.6
Over 3.5
68%-
Over 4.5
49%-
Under 3.5
32%-
Under 4.5
51%-

Match Events

19'Kristiyan BalovAssist: Emil Tsenov
31'Georgi RusevFoul
34'Atanas IlievAssist: Georgi Rusev
41'Stefan VelkovFoul
45'Anthony Moris INTiago Pereira Cardoso out
45'jayson videira INAiman Dardari out
45'Enzo dos Santos INMathias Olesen out
50'Georgi Rusev INP. Panayotov out
51'Yoan StoyanovFoul
66'Kristiyan Balov INStanislav Ivanov out
66'Atanas Iliev INVladimir Nikolov out
67'J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz INTimothé Rupil out
78'Eric Veiga INSebastien Thill out
81'Dirk CarlsonFoul
83'Martin Minchev INKristian Dimitrov out

Lineups

Luxembourg
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Strasser
Bulgaria
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Ribarski
Avg rating6.33
Avg rating7.22
A. Moris6.31A. Moris
F. Bohnert6.04F. Bohnert
V. Selimović7.15V. Selimović
D. Carlson6.513D. Carlson
E. Veiga6.714E. Veiga
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz6.26J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz
E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos5.98E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
Omar Natami6.515O. Natami
V. Thill6.411V. Thill
H. Kadamani6.417H. Kadamani
Jayson Videira Pereira6.39J. Videira Pereira
D. Naumov8.21D. Naumov
Y. Stoyanov7.62Y. Stoyanov
S. Velkov7.413S. Velkov
E. Tsenov7.46E. Tsenov
H. Petrov6.715H. Petrov
A. Kraev6.58A. Kraev
I. Gruev6.64I. Gruev
M. Minchev7.217M. Minchev
G. Rusev7.611G. Rusev
K. Balov8.118K. Balov
A. Iliev8.29A. Iliev

Luxembourg Substitutes

2E. Džogović
7Aiman Dardari45'for jayson videira6.6
23L. Fox
18S. Ikene
16T. Kips
22M. Martins
19M. Olesen45'for Enzo dos Santos6.6
12T. Pereira Cardoso45'for Anthony Moris5.5
10T. Rupil67'for J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz6.1
21S. Thill78'for Eric Veiga6.1
3A. Qevani
20M. Goncalves

Bulgaria Substitutes

14A. Chandarov
19I. Turitsov
7B. Tsonev
22K. Stoyanov
20V. Nikolov66'for Atanas Iliev6.6
12D. Mitov
21S. Ivanov66'for Kristiyan Balov6.5
3A. Hristov
10Z. Dimitrov
5K. Dimitrov83'for Martin Minchev7.0
23A. Bozhev
16P. Panayotov50'for Georgi Rusev6.8

Match Stats

LuxembourgBulgaria
63%Ball Possession37%
5Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards3
18Total Shots13
7Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal7
11Shots Inside Box10
7Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots1
15Fouls15
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves7
583Total Passes350
512Passes Accurate264
15Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

LuxembourgLuxembourg
BulgariaBulgaria
1368Elo Rating 1381
0.75Attack 0.99
1.48Defense 1.84
31%Hit Rate 41%
12.0Shots per Game 11.2
4.5Shots on Target 4.0
3.5Corners per Game 3.3
2.8Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

LuxembourgLuxembourg
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
BulgariaBulgaria
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

LuxembourgLuxembourg1Wins · 20%
Draws240%
BulgariaBulgaria2Wins · 40%
2.6Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League26/09/2026
BulgariaLuxembourg
12
UEFA Nations League15/11/2024
LuxembourgBulgaria
01
UEFA Nations League12/10/2024
BulgariaLuxembourg
00
World Cup - Qualification Europe10/10/2017
LuxembourgBulgaria
11
World Cup - Qualification Europe06/09/2016
BulgariaLuxembourg
43

Recent Form

LuxembourgLuxembourg
4W0D6L
03/10/2026
EstoniaLuxembourg
10
L
29/09/2026
LuxembourgIceland
03
L
26/09/2026
BulgariaLuxembourg
12
W
06/06/2026
AlbaniaLuxembourg
01
W
03/06/2026
LuxembourgItaly
01
L
31/03/2026
LuxembourgMalta
30
W
26/03/2026
MaltaLuxembourg
02
W
17/11/2025
Northern IrelandLuxembourg
10
L
14/11/2025
LuxembourgGermany
02
L
13/10/2025
SlovakiaLuxembourg
20
L
BulgariaBulgaria
1W2D7L
03/10/2026
IcelandBulgaria
30
L
29/09/2026
BulgariaEstonia
00
D
26/09/2026
BulgariaLuxembourg
12
L
05/06/2026
MoldovaBulgaria
22
D
01/06/2026
BulgariaMontenegro
01
L
18/11/2025
BulgariaGeorgia
21
W
15/11/2025
TürkiyeBulgaria
20
L
14/10/2025
SpainBulgaria
40
L
11/10/2025
BulgariaTürkiye
16
L
07/09/2025
GeorgiaBulgaria
30
L

Referee Profile

Andris Treimanis230 matches

4.92Cards per match
4.75Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
27.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Andris Treimanis4.92
Other referees4.43

4.92 cards a match, 0.49 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.43).

Cards come from 92 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1IcelandIceland42207:1+68DWWD
2EstoniaEstonia41302:1+16DWDD
3BulgariaBulgaria41123:5-24WLDL
4LuxembourgLuxembourg41032:7-53LLLW
#TeamMPGPts
1IcelandIceland47:18
2EstoniaEstonia42:16
3BulgariaBulgaria43:54
4LuxembourgLuxembourg42:73
Promotion

About the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Luxembourg and Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Bulgaria are 3rd in the UEFA Nations League, 1 point ahead of Luxembourg in 4th. League goal record so far: Luxembourg 2-7, Bulgaria 3-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.