Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland Prediction

Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica·Jeremie Pignard 05/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.59
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+6.8%
Bosnia & Herzegovina Rest
3 days
Poland Rest
3 days

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland: the result in context

Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Poland 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 5 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 3 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Referee Jeremie Pignard averages 4.43 cards a game, 0.51 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.80
X
28%3.28
2
37%2.52
Double Chance
1X
63%1.50
X2
65%1.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.73
No
49%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.14 + 1.18 = 2.32
Over 1.5
74%1.30
Over 2.5
49%2.01
Over 3.5
29%3.40
Under 1.5
26%3.40
Under 2.5
51%1.81
Under 3.5
71%1.26
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.8 + 4.6 = 8.4
Over 8.5
54%1.97
Over 9.5
43%2.54
Over 10.5
32%3.45
Under 8.5
46%1.77
Under 9.5
57%1.43
Under 10.5
68%1.22
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 3.9
Over 3.5
55%1.36
Over 4.5
35%1.74
Under 3.5
45%2.93
Under 4.5
65%2.00

Match Events

32'Armin GigovicFoul
38'Nicola ZalewskiFoul
42'Ermedin DemirovićDissent
63'Matty Cash INNorbert Wojtuszek out
63'Karol Świderski INMarcel Regula out
63'Zinedin Smajlovic INEsmir Bajraktarević out
63'Ermin Mahmić INBenjamin Tahirovic out
76'Nikola KatićDissent
78'Haris Tabaković INSamed Baždar out
78'Ermedin Demirović INJovo Lukić out
83'Penalty cancelledJovo Lukić
83'Jan BednarekFoul
84'Ivan Bašić(Penalty)
89'Wiktor Nowak INKacper Urbanski out
89'Mateusz Zukowski INOskar Pietuszewski out
89'Armin Gigovic INStjepan Radeljić out
90+1'Norbert WojtuszekFoul

Lineups

Bosnia & Herzegovina
4-4-2Coach: S. Barbarez
Poland
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Urban
Avg rating6.62
Avg rating6.51
M. Zlomislić7.822M. Zlomislić
Z. Smajlović6.97Z. Smajlović
N. Katić6.818N. Katić
T. Muharemović6.84T. Muharemović
S. Kolašinac6.65S. Kolašinac
A. Memić6.415A. Memić
A. Gigović6.38A. Gigović
I. Bašić7.813I. Bašić
Ermin Mahmić6.016E. Mahmić
E. Demirović6.310E. Demirović
H. Tabaković6.423H. Tabaković
M. Bułka6.51M. Bułka
M. Cash6.62M. Cash
J. Bednarek6.45J. Bednarek
J. Kiwior7.214J. Kiwior
P. Frankowski7.219P. Frankowski
W. Nowak6.716W. Nowak
P. Zieliński7.010P. Zieliński
K. Świderski6.611K. Świderski
S. Szymański6.820S. Szymański
N. Zalewski6.121N. Zalewski
M. Żukowski6.09M. Żukowski

Bosnia & Herzegovina Substitutes

9S. Baždar78'for Haris Tabaković6.1
19J. Lukić78'for Ermedin Demirović6.3
1M. Jurkas
3A. Malic
17A. Hasić
12S. Hamzić
11E. Bajraktarevic63'for Zinedin Smajlovic6.7
2N. Mujakić
20N. Omerović
21S. Radeljić89'for Armin Gigovic6.6
14I. Šunjić
6B. Tahirović63'for Ermin Mahmić6.5

Poland Substitutes

12M. Kochalski
7O. Pietuszewski89'for Mateusz Zukowski6.4
23K. Potulski
15T. Puchacz
18M. Reguła63'for Karol Świderski6.3
17M. Skóraś
6B. Slisz
8K. Urbański89'for Wiktor Nowak6.2
3P. Wiśniewski
13N. Wojtuszek63'for Matty Cash90+1'5.9
22S. Abramowicz
4T. Kędziora

Match Stats

Bosnia & HerzegovinaPoland
44%Ball Possession56%
2Corner Kicks8
3Yellow Cards3
9Total Shots18
1Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal7
5Shots Inside Box10
4Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots7
12Fouls7
4Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves1
359Total Passes443
303Passes Accurate374
84%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina
PolandPoland
1554Elo Rating 1583
1.28Attack 1.85
2.10Defense 1.72
46%Hit Rate 23%
9.2Shots per Game 18.3
2.7Shots on Target 6.2
3.0Corners per Game 6.3
2.2Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
PolandPoland
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina0Wins · 0%
Draws133%
PolandPoland2Wins · 67%
2.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League25/09/2026
PolandBosnia & Herzegovina
00
UEFA Nations League14/10/2020
PolandBosnia & Herzegovina
30
UEFA Nations League07/09/2020
Bosnia & HerzegovinaPoland
12

Recent Form

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina
3W5D2L
02/10/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaSweden
11
D
28/09/2026
RomaniaBosnia & Herzegovina
24
W
25/09/2026
PolandBosnia & Herzegovina
00
D
02/07/2026
USABosnia & Herzegovina
20
L
24/06/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaQatar
31
W
18/06/2026
SwitzerlandBosnia & Herzegovina
41
L
12/06/2026
CanadaBosnia & Herzegovina
11
D
06/06/2026
PanamaBosnia & Herzegovina
11
D
29/05/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaFYR Macedonia
00
D
31/03/2026
Bosnia & HerzegovinaItaly
4111
W
PolandPoland
4W3D3L
02/10/2026
PolandRomania
60
W
28/09/2026
SwedenPoland
31
L
25/09/2026
PolandBosnia & Herzegovina
00
D
03/06/2026
PolandNigeria
22
D
31/05/2026
PolandUkraine
02
L
31/03/2026
SwedenPoland
32
L
26/03/2026
PolandAlbania
21
W
17/11/2025
MaltaPoland
23
W
14/11/2025
PolandNetherlands
11
D
12/10/2025
LithuaniaPoland
02
W

Referee Profile

Jeremie Pignard161 matches

4.44Cards per match
4.16Yellow cards per match
0.28Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jeremie Pignard4.43
Other referees3.92

4.43 cards a match, 0.51 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.92).

Cards come from 152 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SwedenSweden43107:3+410WDWW
2Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina42206:3+38WDWD
3PolandPoland41127:4+34LWLD
4RomaniaRomania40043:13-100LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SwedenSweden47:310
2Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina46:38
3PolandPoland47:44
4RomaniaRomania43:130
PromotionRelegation

About the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Bosnia & Herzegovina are 2nd in the UEFA Nations League, 4 points ahead of Poland in 3rd. League goal record so far: Bosnia & Herzegovina 6-3, Poland 7-4. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.