Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger Prediction

Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria 08/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
7.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.17
SignalSTRONGModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-5.2%
Mamelodi Sundowns Rest
4 days
USM Alger Rest
7 days

Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger: the result in context

USM Alger beat Mamelodi Sundowns 3-1 in the CAF Super Cup on 8 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
64%1.57
X
22%3.50
2
14%5.60
Double Chance
1X
86%1.10
X2
36%2.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%2.31
No
60%1.54
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 0.47 = 2.17
Over 1.5
63%1.44
Over 2.5
38%2.38
Over 3.5
20%4.45
Under 1.5
37%2.61
Under 2.5
62%1.52
Under 3.5
80%1.17
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

4'Z. DraouiAssist: A. Khaldi
17'B. Leon INI. Rayners out
25'I. Rayners(Penalty)
37'S. Radouani
46'F. Boulaya INA. Tendeng out
46'T. Morena INS. Ndlovu out
55'A. KhaldiAssist: A. Tendeng
57'C. Mailula INA. van Wyk out
60'M. Ramdaoui
67'M. Khoza
69'M. Ramdaoui IND. Kamagate out
83'Z. Draoui INC. Malone Junior out
84'A. Modiba INF. Basadien out
84'T. Matuludi INT. Zwane out
88'A. Khaldi ING. Guenaoui out
88'S. Radouani

Team Comparison

Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
USM AlgerUSM Alger
1727Elo Rating 1612
1.55Attack 1.61
2.61Defense 2.09
69%Hit Rate 61%
22.0Shots per Game -
9.0Shots on Target -
11.0Corners per Game -
1.0Cards per Game -

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+115 Elo
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
USM AlgerUSM Alger
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns2Wins · 100%
Draws00%
USM AlgerUSM Alger0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

CAF Champions League11/01/2020
Mamelodi SundownsUSM Alger
21
CAF Champions League28/12/2019
USM AlgerMamelodi Sundowns
01

Recent Form

Mamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns
7W3D0L
03/11/2026
Mamelodi SundownsGolden Arrows
10
W
31/10/2026
Mamelodi SundownsDurban City
41
W
27/10/2026
Mamelodi SundownsMarumo Gallants
10
W
23/10/2026
Mamelodi SundownsWiliete
11
D
18/10/2026
WilieteMamelodi Sundowns
00
D
13/10/2026
Richards BayMamelodi Sundowns
14
W
10/10/2026
Orlando PiratesMamelodi Sundowns
02
W
19/09/2026
Mamelodi SundownsAl-Ahli Jeddah
21
W
12/09/2026
Chippa UnitedMamelodi Sundowns
11
D
09/09/2026
Mamelodi SundownsSiwelele
30
W
USM AlgerUSM Alger
4W5D1L
31/10/2026
CS ConstantineUSM Alger
02
W
25/10/2026
USM AlgerPanthers
00
D
24/10/2026
USM AlgerCR Belouizdad
22
D
20/10/2026
PanthersUSM Alger
00
D
13/10/2026
USM AlgerJS Saoura
10
W
08/10/2026
MB RouissetUSM Alger
10
L
19/09/2026
Olympique AkbouUSM Alger
23
W
10/09/2026
USM AlgerJS El Biar
20
W
04/09/2026
KhenchelaUSM Alger
00
D
06/06/2026
MC OranUSM Alger
22
D

About the Mamelodi Sundowns vs USM Alger forecast

As a knockout tie in the CAF Super Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CAF Super Cup

More CAF Super Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the CAF Super Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.6 out of 10 by our context model. Mamelodi Sundowns have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Mamelodi Sundowns and USM Alger have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game in those meetings. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.