Sporting CP vs Alverca Prediction

Sporting CP
3-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Alverca
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon· Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal 22/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 9.5
1.72
SignalSTRONGModel67%RiskMediumGap+11.5%
Sporting CP Rest
8 days
Alverca Rest
7 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.20
X
18%6.60
2
2%12.50
Double Chance
1X
98%1.03
X2
20%4.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%2.03
No
45%1.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.18 + 0.77 = 2.95
Over 1.5
83%1.14
Over 2.5
60%1.48
Over 3.5
33%2.25
Under 1.5
17%5.25
Under 2.5
40%2.57
Under 3.5
67%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 7.6 + 3.1 = 10.7
Over 8.5
75%1.42
Over 9.5
65%1.72
Over 10.5
57%2.10
Under 8.5
25%2.55
Under 9.5
35%2.00
Under 10.5
43%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.9 = 4.7
Over 3.5
65%1.33
Over 4.5
45%1.80
Under 3.5
35%2.75
Under 4.5
55%1.92

Match Events

2'M. Araujo
16'Y. BojangHolding
22'G. CatamoTripping
39'D. GuiTripping
55'Matheus MendesOG
56'Rayan Lucas INA. Vidigal out
56'V. Semedo INS. J. Merheg out
60'L. SuarezAssist: G. Catamo
66'Chissumba INM. Essimi out
68'G. Catamo INLuis Guilherme out
68'F. Goncalves INN. Irankunda out
75'M. EssimiHolding
75'Ian Luccas INV. Moreira out
75'D. Gui INZ. Kassary out
75'Z. Debast INE. Quaresma out
75'L. Suarez INR. Nel out
88'R. Zalazar INPedro Lima out
89'FigueiredoAssist: V. Moreira

Lineups

Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Coach: Rui Borges
Alverca
3-4-2-1Coach: Sergio Ferreira
Rui Silva1R. SilvaRui Silva
Iván Fresneda22I. FresnedaIván Fresneda
Zeno Debast6Z. DebastZeno Debast
Ibrahima Ba55I. BaIbrahima Ba
Maximiliano Araújo20M. AraújoMaximiliano Araújo
Sergi Altimira5S. AltimiraSergi Altimira
Issa Doumbia77I. DoumbiaIssa Doumbia
Geny Catamo10G. CatamoGeny Catamo
Flávio Gonçalves58F. GonçalvesFlávio Gonçalves
Rodrigo Zalazar17R. ZalazarRodrigo Zalazar
Luis Javier Suárez97L. Javier SuárezLuis Javier Suárez
Matheus Mendes31M. MendesMatheus Mendes
Steven Baseya14S. BaseyaSteven Baseya
Yaya Bojang4Y. BojangYaya Bojang
Isaac James12I. JamesIsaac James
Nabil Touaizi2N. TouaiziNabil Touaizi
Davy Gui6D. GuiDavy Gui
Rayan Lucas35R. LucasRayan Lucas
Francisco Chissumba55F. ChissumbaFrancisco Chissumba
Ian Luccas25I. LuccasIan Luccas
Figueiredo22FigueiredoFigueiredo
Vivaldo9VivaldoVivaldo

Sporting CP Substitutes

12João VirgíniaG
13Georgios VagiannidisD
72Eduardo QuaresmaD
25Gonçalo InácioD
50Rodrigo DiasD
73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
31Luís GuilhermeF
21Pedro LimaM
4Silas AndersenM
28Jesse DerryF
9Rafael NelF
19Nestory IrankundaF

Alverca Substitutes

23André PauloG
91JhonatanG
15Ikker dos SantosD
21Sergi GómezD
20Diogo SpencerD
19Marco EssimiF
18Zakaria KassaryM
8Vasco MoreiraM
7André VidigalF
11Cédric NuozziF
27Toni TamaritF
17Samy Jr MerhegF

Match Stats

Sporting CPAlverca
69%Ball Possession31%
1Corner Kicks0
1Yellow Cards2
5Total Shots3
2Shots on Goal1
1Shots off Goal1
1Shots Inside Box1
4Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
6Fouls9
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves1
313Total Passes142
286Passes Accurate109
91%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Sporting CPSporting CP
AlvercaAlverca
1883Elo Rating 1592
2.43Attack 1.68
2.36Defense 1.30
73%Hit Rate 27%
11.6Shots per Game 7.5
5.2Shots on Target 3.3
4.3Corners per Game 2.7
2.2Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+291 Elo
High Goal Expectancy2.96 goals
📈BTTS Trend54% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Sporting CPSporting CP
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
AlvercaAlverca
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 4 historical meetings

Sporting CP 81%Draw 0%19% Alverca
3.85Avg Goals
54%BTTS Rate
54%Over 2.5

Recent Form

Sporting CPSporting CP
4W1D0L
14/08/2026
Sporting CPVitória SC
32
W
08/08/2026
EstrelaSporting CP
22
D
31/07/2026
Sporting CPNottingham Forest
41
W
25/07/2026
Sporting CPMonaco
20
W
20/07/2026
Sporting CPStrasbourg
70
W
AlvercaAlverca
2W1D2L
15/08/2026
AlvercaEstrela
22
D
09/08/2026
FC PortoAlverca
20
L
01/08/2026
AlvercaSporting CP B
10
W
25/07/2026
MafraAlverca
10
L
22/07/2026
AlvercaEstoril
20
W

Referee Profile

Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal · 5 matches analysed

4.8Avg Yellows
5.0Avg Cards
24.0Avg Fouls
Stricter than 78% of referees analysed

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto660015:2+1318WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica651021:4+1716WWWWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP642015:6+914DWWWW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara642011:4+714WWDWW
5AroucaArouca63128:5+310LDWLW
6EstrelaEstrela624014:12+210DWDWD
7SC BragaSC Braga53117:5+210WLWWD
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu62227:9-28WWLDL
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente52124:407LLDWW
10MaritimoMaritimo62137:11-47LLLDW
11MoreirenseMoreirense62137:13-67WLLWL
12AlvercaAlverca61238:11-35WLDLD
13FamalicaoFamalicao60425:7-24DDDLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC61144:7-34LDLWL
15NacionalNacional61147:11-44LLLLW
16Rio AveRio Ave61145:14-94DLLWL
17EstorilEstoril60242:8-62LDLLL
18Casa PiaCasa Pia60151:15-141LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto615:218
2BenficaBenfica621:416
3Sporting CPSporting CP615:614
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara611:414
5AroucaArouca68:510
6EstrelaEstrela614:1210
7SC BragaSC Braga57:510
8Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu67:98
9GIL VicenteGIL Vicente54:47
10MaritimoMaritimo67:117
11MoreirenseMoreirense67:137
12AlvercaAlverca68:115
13FamalicaoFamalicao65:74
14Vitória SCVitória SC64:74
15NacionalNacional67:114
16Rio AveRio Ave65:144
17EstorilEstoril62:82
18Casa PiaCasa Pia61:151
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Sporting CP vs Alverca Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Primeira Liga fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Primeira Liga

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Key Factors for This Match

Sporting CP have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Sporting CP and Alverca have met 4 times recently, averaging 3.85 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.