Netherlands vs Germany Prediction

Netherlands
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Germany

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.44
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseHighGap-2.6%
Value Analysis
77%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.35
SignalHIGHModel77%SurpriseHighGap+4.0%
Netherlands Rest
86 days
Germany Rest
86 days

Netherlands vs Germany: the result in context

Netherlands and Germany drew 1-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 24 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.7 a game across 7 meetings, with both teams scoring in 5. Referee Alejandro Hernandez averages 5.37 cards a game, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
35%2.60
X
27%3.75
2
38%2.50
Double Chance
1X
62%1.51
X2
65%1.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%1.37
No
40%2.84
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.76 + 1.06 = 2.82
Over 1.5
83%1.10
Over 2.5
62%1.44
Over 3.5
43%2.14
Under 1.5
17%5.83
Under 2.5
38%2.70
Under 3.5
57%1.72
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
56%1.51
Over 9.5
48%1.84
Over 10.5
37%2.34
Under 8.5
44%2.44
Under 9.5
52%1.87
Under 10.5
63%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 1.8 = 3.3
Over 3.5
41%2.01
Over 4.5
23%3.04
Under 3.5
59%1.73
Under 4.5
77%1.35

Match Events

14'Goal cancelledVirgil van Dijk
22'Quinten TimberFoul
24'Jan Paul van HeckeFoul
30'Kai Havertz INYounes Ebnoutalib out
32'Felix NmechaAssist: Karim Adeyemi
35'Brian Brobbey INMexx Meerdink out
57'Quinten Timber INJoey Veerman out
64'Kevin Schade INChris Führich out
64'Felix Nmecha INAnton Stach out
68'Nadiem AmiriFoul
68'Denzel DumfriesArgument
69'Virgil van DijkDissent
80'Nadiem Amiri INYannick Engelhardt out
80'Karim Adeyemi INSerge Gnabry out
83'Tijjani Reijnders INGuus Til out
83'Crysencio Summerville INRuben van Bommel out
90+2'Cody GakpoAssist: Ruben van Bommel

Lineups

Netherlands
4-2-3-1Coach: Xavi
Germany
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Klopp
Avg rating6.80
Avg rating6.86
B. Verbruggen6.81B. Verbruggen
D. Dumfries7.322D. Dumfries
J. van Hecke6.96J. van Hecke
V. van Dijk6.74V. van Dijk
M. van de Ven6.915M. van de Ven
R. Gravenberch6.48R. Gravenberch
Q. Timber6.919Q. Timber
C. Summerville6.37C. Summerville
T. Reijnders7.114T. Reijnders
C. Gakpo7.811C. Gakpo
B. Brobbey6.49B. Brobbey
M. ter Stegen7.91M. ter Stegen
P. Treu7.213P. Treu
J. Tah7.14J. Tah
N. Schlotterbeck7.215N. Schlotterbeck
N. Brown6.818N. Brown
F. Nmecha8.18F. Nmecha
J. Kimmich6.76J. Kimmich
K. Adeyemi7.519K. Adeyemi
N. Amiri6.111N. Amiri
K. Schade6.39K. Schade
K. Havertz6.67K. Havertz

Netherlands Substitutes

12J. Frimpong
2L. Geertruida
23M. Flekken
3J. Hato
20T. Koopmeiners
10N. Lang
17M. Meerdink35'for Brian Brobbey7.0
13R. Roefs
16G. Til83'for Tijjani Reijnders6.3
18J. Veerman57'for Quinten Timber6.5
21R. van Bommel83'for Crysencio Summerville7.0
5N. Aké

Germany Substitutes

22Hennes Behrens
2Y. Bisseck
12F. Dahmen
23Y. Ebnoutalib30'for Kai Havertz6.8
5Y. Engelhardt80'for Nadiem Amiri6.5
17C. Führich64'for Kevin Schade6.5
20S. Gnabry80'for Karim Adeyemi6.4
21A. Nübel
3M. Rosenfelder
16A. Stach64'for Felix Nmecha6.2
14J. Vagnoman

Match Stats

NetherlandsGermany
54%Ball Possession46%
12Corner Kicks1
3Yellow Cards1
22Total Shots10
10Shots on Goal2
6Shots off Goal5
16Shots Inside Box7
6Shots Outside Box3
6Blocked Shots3
11Fouls16
3Offsides1
1Goalkeeper Saves9
409Total Passes370
348Passes Accurate303
15Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

NetherlandsNetherlands
GermanyGermany
1820Elo Rating 1760
1.69Attack 0.76
1.77Defense 2.50
46%Hit Rate 23%
19.6Shots per Game 19.7
6.5Shots on Target 4.8
6.9Corners per Game 6.7
1.0Cards per Game 1.2

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📈BTTS Trend71% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

NetherlandsNetherlands
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
GermanyGermany
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

NetherlandsNetherlands2Wins · 29%
Draws228%
GermanyGermany3Wins · 43%
3.7Avg Goals
71%Both teams scored5 of 7
86%3+ goals6 of 7

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League14/10/2024
GermanyNetherlands
10
UEFA Nations League10/09/2024
NetherlandsGermany
22
Euro Championship06/09/2019
GermanyNetherlands
24
Euro Championship24/03/2019
NetherlandsGermany
23
UEFA Nations League19/11/2018
GermanyNetherlands
22
UEFA Nations League13/10/2018
NetherlandsGermany
30
Euro Championship13/06/2012
NetherlandsGermany
12

Recent Form

NetherlandsNetherlands
6W2D2L
30/06/2026
NetherlandsMorocco
2131
L
26/06/2026
TunisiaNetherlands
13
W
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
W
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
08/06/2026
NetherlandsUzbekistan
21
W
03/06/2026
NetherlandsAlgeria
01
L
17/11/2025
NetherlandsLithuania
40
W
14/11/2025
PolandNetherlands
11
D
12/10/2025
NetherlandsFinland
40
W
09/10/2025
MaltaNetherlands
04
W
GermanyGermany
8W0D2L
29/06/2026
GermanyParaguay
3141
L
25/06/2026
EcuadorGermany
21
L
20/06/2026
GermanyIvory Coast
21
W
14/06/2026
GermanyCuraçao
71
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
W
31/05/2026
GermanyFinland
40
W
17/11/2025
GermanySlovakia
60
W
14/11/2025
LuxembourgGermany
02
W
13/10/2025
Northern IrelandGermany
01
W
10/10/2025
GermanyLuxembourg
40
W

Referee Profile

Alejandro Hernandez191 matches

5.37Cards per match
5.14Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alejandro Hernandez5.37
Other referees4.70

5.37 cards a match, 0.67 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.70).

Cards come from 187 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands42207:5+28WDWD
2GreeceGreece42205:3+28DDWW
3GermanyGermany41213:2+15DWLD
4SerbiaSerbia40043:8-50LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands47:58
2GreeceGreece45:38
3GermanyGermany43:25
4SerbiaSerbia43:80

About the Netherlands vs Germany forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Netherlands and Germany in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Netherlands are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 3 points ahead of Germany in 3rd. League goal record so far: Netherlands 7-5, Germany 3-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.