Germany vs Paraguay Prediction

World CupWorld World · Round of 32
CupKnockout
Germany
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-1AET 0-0PEN 3-4
Paraguay
Gillette Stadium, Boston· Jalal Jayed, Morocco 29/06/2026
GermanyGermany
1-1
After Penalties
ParaguayParaguay

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.35
SignalGOODModel100%RiskMediumGap-0.3%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.44
SignalGOODModel90%RiskMediumGap+7.0%
Germany Rest
4 days
Paraguay Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
73%1.35
X
22%5.00
2
5%8.80
Double Chance
1X
95%1.07
X2
26%3.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%2.00
No
49%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.4 + 0.83 = 3.23
Over 1.5
73%1.20
Over 2.5
48%1.72
Over 3.5
27%2.75
Under 1.5
27%4.25
Under 2.5
52%2.15
Under 3.5
73%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.4 = 8.2
Over 8.5
51%1.57
Over 9.5
42%1.99
Over 10.5
32%2.58
Under 8.5
49%2.25
Under 9.5
58%1.76
Under 10.5
68%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1
Over 3.5
48%2.40
Over 4.5
27%3.52
Under 3.5
52%1.53
Under 4.5
73%1.26

Match Events

42'J. EncisoAssist: M. Galarza
46'F. Nmecha INL. Goretzka out
54'K. HavertzAssist: F. Wirtz
55'G. Avalos ING. Caballero out
57'J. Enciso INMauricio out
63'D. Undav INJ. Musiala out
65'A. CubasRoughing
79'A. Pavlovic INW. Anton out
88'L. Sane INN. Woltemade out

Extra Time0 - 0

91'M. Almiron ING. Velazquez out
99'J. Caceres INB. Ojeda out
99'D. Bobadilla INA. Sanabria out
102'Goal Disallowed - FoulJ. Tah
105'G. Alfaro
105+1'J. Nagelsmann
106'K. HavertzFoul
110'F. Wirtz INN. Amiri out
110'A. Rudiger INM. Thiaw out
115'J. MusialaRoughing
117'M. GalarzaFoul
120+2'J. Alonso INFabian Balbuena out

Penalty Shootout3 - 4

1K. Havertz(Penalty missed)
1Mauricio(Penalty)
2J. Kimmich(Penalty)
2G. Gomez(Penalty)
3J. Musiala(Penalty)
3M. Galarza(Penalty)
4N. Woltemade(Penalty missed)
4A. Sanabria(Penalty missed)
5N. Amiri(Penalty)
5Fabian Balbuena(Penalty missed)
6J. Tah(Penalty missed)
6J. Canale(Penalty)

Lineups

Germany
4-4-2Coach: Julian Nagelsmann
Paraguay
4-4-2Coach: Gustavo Alfaro
Manuel Neuer1M. NeuerManuel Neuer
Joshua Kimmich6J. KimmichJoshua Kimmich
Jonathan Tah4J. TahJonathan Tah
Antonio Rüdiger2A. RüdigerAntonio Rüdiger
Nathaniel Brown18N. BrownNathaniel Brown
Leroy Sané19L. SanéLeroy Sané
Felix Nmecha23F. NmechaFelix Nmecha
Aleksandar Pavlović5A. PavlovićAleksandar Pavlović
Florian Wirtz17F. WirtzFlorian Wirtz
Kai Havertz7K. HavertzKai Havertz
Deniz Undav26D. UndavDeniz Undav
Orlando Gill12O. GillOrlando Gill
Juan Cáceres4J. CáceresJuan Cáceres
Gustavo Gómez15G. GómezGustavo Gómez
José Canale13J. CanaleJosé Canale
Junior Alonso6J. AlonsoJunior Alonso
Miguel Almirón10M. AlmirónMiguel Almirón
Damián Bobadilla16D. BobadillaDamián Bobadilla
Andrés Cubas14A. CubasAndrés Cubas
Matías Galarza23M. GalarzaMatías Galarza
Gabriel Ávalos21G. ÁvalosGabriel Ávalos
Julio Enciso19J. EncisoJulio Enciso

Germany Substitutes

8Leon GoretzkaM
10Jamal MusialaM
3Waldemar AntonD
11Nick WoltemadeF
21Alexander NübelG
12Oliver BaumannG
22David RaumD
24Malick ThiawD
13Pascal GroßM
16Angelo StillerM
25Assan OuédraogoM
9Jamie LewelingF
20Nadiem AmiriM
14Maximilian BeierF

Paraguay Substitutes

24Gustavo CaballeroF
11MauricioM
22Gastón OlveiraG
1Roberto FernándezG
2Gustavo VelázquezD
3Omar AldereteD
5Fabián BalbuenaD
26Alexandro MaidanaD
20Braian OjedaM
17Alejandro RomeroM
7Ramón SosaF
9Antonio SanabriaF
18Alex ArceF
25Isidro PittaF

Match Stats

GermanyParaguay
75%Ball Possession25%
16Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards2
21Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal2
11Shots Inside Box6
10Shots Outside Box1
8Blocked Shots2
18Fouls12
4Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves6
799Total Passes257
719Passes Accurate161
90%Pass Accuracy63%

Team Comparison

GermanyGermany
ParaguayParaguay
1763Elo Rating 1591
2.89Attack 0.54
1.91Defense 1.94
50%Hit Rate 17%
18.7Shots per Game 6.7
7.1Shots on Target 1.8
8.8Corners per Game 2.3
1.4Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.23 goals

Game State Tendencies

GermanyGermany
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.6 vs 1.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ParaguayParaguay
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0.1 in second half)

Recent Form

GermanyGermany
4W0D1L
25/06/2026
EcuadorGermany
21
L20/06/2026
GermanyIvory Coast
21
W14/06/2026
GermanyCuraçao
71
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
W
31/05/2026
GermanyFinland
40
W
ParaguayParaguay
3W1D1L
26/06/2026
ParaguayAustralia
00
D20/06/2026
TürkiyeParaguay
01
W13/06/2026
USAParaguay
41
L
06/06/2026
ParaguayNicaragua
40
W
10/09/2025
PeruParaguay
01
W

Referee Profile

Jalal Jayed, Morocco · 6 matches analysed

3.4Avg Yellows
3.5Avg Cards
26.6Avg Fouls
Stricter than 7% of referees analysed

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Group E

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1GermanyGermany320110:4+66LWW
2Ivory CoastIvory Coast32014:2+26WLW
3EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
4CuraçaoCuraçao30121:9-81LDL
#TeamMPGPts
1GermanyGermany310:46
2Ivory CoastIvory Coast34:26
3EcuadorEcuador32:24
4CuraçaoCuraçao31:91

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0

Germany vs Paraguay Prediction

As a knockout-stage World Cup fixture, this match carries added stakes for both sides. Our AI model analyses team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history to build forecasts across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

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Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. Germany and Paraguay have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.