Netherlands vs Sweden Prediction

Netherlands
5-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Sweden
NRG Stadium, Houston·Michael Oliver, England 20/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
91%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel89%SurpriseMediumGap+7.5%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.72
SignalGOODModel80%SurpriseMediumGap+12.7%
Netherlands Rest
5 days
Sweden Rest
5 days

Netherlands vs Sweden: result, form and history

Netherlands beat Sweden 5-1 in the World Cup on 20 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Netherlands tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 2.5 for Sweden.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
68%1.72
X
23%4.00
2
9%4.63
Double Chance
1X
91%1.20
X2
32%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.60
No
47%2.24
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.84 + 0.97 = 2.81
Over 1.5
73%1.18
Over 2.5
48%1.64
Over 3.5
27%2.55
Under 1.5
27%4.50
Under 2.5
52%2.28
Under 3.5
73%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 2.3 = 8.6
Over 8.5
53%1.55
Over 9.5
44%1.95
Over 10.5
33%2.50
Under 8.5
47%2.28
Under 9.5
56%1.80
Under 10.5
67%1.48
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
57%2.33
Over 4.5
33%3.40
Under 3.5
43%1.54
Under 4.5
67%1.27

Match Events

5'B. BrobbeyAssist: C. Gakpo
17'B. BrobbeyAssist: D. Dumfries
46'D. Malen INC. Summerville out
47'C. GakpoAssist: D. Dumfries
53'G. GudmundssonTripping
54'C. GakpoAssist: C. Summerville
55'A. Bernhardsson INA. Elanga out
56'J. Karlstrom INB. Zeneli out
56'B. Nygren INL. Bergvall out
59'A. ElangaAssist: A. Isak
59'F. de Jong INT. Koopmeiners out
59'T. Reijnders ING. Til out
72'B. Brobbey INM. Depay out
75'Y. AyariHolding
79'Y. Ayari INT. Ali out
80'L. BergvallRoughing
89'C. SummervilleAssist: M. Depay
90'C. Gakpo INN. Lang out
90+3'G. Gudmundsson INE. Stroud out

Lineups

Netherlands
4-3-3Coach: Ronald Koeman
Sweden
3-1-4-2Coach: Graham Potter
Avg rating7.37
Avg rating6.31
Bart Verbruggen7.91B. Verbruggen
Denzel Dumfries8.622D. Dumfries
Jan Paul van Hecke7.36J. Paul van Hecke
Virgil van DijkC6.94V. van Dijk
Micky van de Ven6.615M. van de Ven
Ryan Gravenberch6.78R. Gravenberch
Frenkie de Jong7.721F. de Jong
Tijjani Reijnders6.314T. Reijnders
Donyell Malen6.618D. Malen
Brian Brobbey8.219B. Brobbey
Cody Gakpo9.611C. Gakpo
Kristoffer Nordfeldt5.223K. Nordfeldt
Gustaf Lagerbielke5.92G. Lagerbielke
Isak Hien5.94I. Hien
Victor LindelöfC5.73V. Lindelöf
Jesper Karlström6.316J. Karlström
Alexander Bernhardsson6.321A. Bernhardsson
Benjamin Nygren5.910B. Nygren
Yasin Ayari6.318Y. Ayari
Gabriel Gudmundsson6.35G. Gudmundsson
Viktor Gyökeres6.617V. Gyökeres
Alexander Isak7.09A. Isak

Netherlands Substitutes

24Crysencio Summerville46'for D. Malen89'8.3
16Guus Til59'for T. Reijnders6.5
20Teun Koopmeiners59'for F. de Jong6.7
23Mark Flekken
13Robin Roefs
25Jorrel Hato
5Nathan Aké
2Lutsharel Geertruida
12Mats Wieffer
7Justin Kluivert
3Marten de Roon
10Memphis Depay72'for B. Brobbey6.7
17Noa Lang90'for C. Gakpo
9Wout Weghorst

Sweden Substitutes

22Besfort Zeneli56'for J. Karlstrom6.3
7Lucas Bergvall56'for B. Nygren80'6.7
11Anthony Elanga55'for A. Bernhardsson59'7.9
1Jacob Widell Zetterström
12Viktor Johansson
15Carl Starfelt
14Hjalmar Ekdal
20Eric Smith
8Daniel Svensson
24Elliot Stroud90+3'for G. Gudmundsson
6Herman Johansson
13Ken Sema
19Mattias Svanberg
26Taha Abdi Ali79'for Y. Ayari6.3
25Gustaf Nilsson

Match Stats

NetherlandsSweden
51%Ball Possession49%
2Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards3
10Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal8
2Shots off Goal5
6Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box9
1Blocked Shots3
9Fouls12
3Offsides3
7Goalkeeper Saves2
449Total Passes425
398Passes Accurate361
89%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

NetherlandsNetherlands
SwedenSweden
1820Elo Rating 1648
1.69Attack 1.41
1.77Defense 1.99
46%Hit Rate 63%
19.6Shots per Game 10.4
6.5Shots on Target 3.7
6.9Corners per Game 2.5
1.0Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+173 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.81 goals
📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

NetherlandsNetherlands
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SwedenSweden
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

NetherlandsNetherlands1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
SwedenSweden0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
0%3+ goals0 of 2

Previous meetings

World Cup - Qualification Europe10/10/2017
NetherlandsSweden
20
World Cup - Qualification Europe06/09/2016
SwedenNetherlands
11

Recent Form

NetherlandsNetherlands
6W3D1L
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
08/06/2026
NetherlandsUzbekistan
21
W
03/06/2026
NetherlandsAlgeria
01
L
17/11/2025
NetherlandsLithuania
40
W
14/11/2025
PolandNetherlands
11
D
12/10/2025
NetherlandsFinland
40
W
09/10/2025
MaltaNetherlands
04
W
07/09/2025
LithuaniaNetherlands
23
W
04/09/2025
NetherlandsPoland
11
D
10/06/2025
NetherlandsMalta
80
W
SwedenSweden
3W2D5L
15/06/2026
SwedenTunisia
51
W
04/06/2026
SwedenGreece
22
D
01/06/2026
NorwaySweden
31
L
31/03/2026
SwedenPoland
32
W
26/03/2026
UkraineSweden
13
W
18/11/2025
SwedenSlovenia
11
D
15/11/2025
SwitzerlandSweden
41
L
13/10/2025
SwedenKosovo
01
L
10/10/2025
SwedenSwitzerland
02
L
08/09/2025
KosovoSweden
20
L

Referee Profile

Michael Oliver313 matches

3.92Cards per match
3.78Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Michael Oliver3.92
Other referees3.94

3.92 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).

Cards come from 306 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands321010:4+67WWD
2JapanJapan31207:3+45DWD
3SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
4TunisiaTunisia30032:12-100LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands310:47
2JapanJapan37:35
3SwedenSweden37:74
4TunisiaTunisia32:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

About the Netherlands vs Sweden forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Netherlands and Sweden in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Netherlands are 1st in the World Cup, 3 points ahead of Sweden in 3rd. League goal record so far: Netherlands 10-4, Sweden 7-7. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Netherlands and Sweden have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.0 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.