Palermo vs Sampdoria Prediction

Palermo
3-1
Finished
HT 2-0
Sampdoria
Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo·M. Marchetti 07/09/2026
PalermoPalermo
3-1
Finished
SampdoriaSampdoria

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.80
SignalNEUTRALModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+4.6%
Palermo Rest
4 days
Sampdoria Rest
9 days

Palermo vs Sampdoria: the result in context

Palermo beat Sampdoria 3-1 in the Serie B on 7 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Palermo had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Sampdoria.

Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Sampdoria tend to win more corners, 5.5 a game to 3.3 for Palermo.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.64
X
26%3.75
2
20%5.17
Double Chance
1X
80%1.14
X2
46%2.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.80
No
43%1.92
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.8 + 1.06 = 2.86
Over 1.5
80%1.27
Over 2.5
55%1.85
Over 3.5
35%3.13
Under 1.5
20%3.63
Under 2.5
45%1.95
Under 3.5
65%1.35
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.7 = 9.1
Over 8.5
59%1.48
Over 9.5
48%1.84
Over 10.5
35%2.29
Under 8.5
41%2.45
Under 9.5
52%1.86
Under 10.5
65%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
50%1.40
Over 4.5
31%1.83
Under 3.5
50%2.69
Under 4.5
69%1.83

Match Events

9'Gabriel StrefezzaAssist: Tommaso Augello
18'Liam HendersonFoul
18'Lorenzo InsigneDissent
21'Gabriel Strefezza INDominic Vavassori out
33'Joel Pohjanpalo
45'Hernani INAntonio Palumbo out
47'Mattia BaniFoul
53'Danel Sinani INTjas Begic out
63'Lorenzo Insigne
65'Niccolo Pierozzi INTommaso Cassandro out
65'Filippo·Ranocchia INNahuel Estévez out
70'Lorenzo Insigne INOliver Abildgaard out
83'Yari Verschaeren INLorenzo Mezzotero out
84'Joel Pohjanpalo INAlessandro Gabrielloni out
90+2'Antonio PalumboFoul
90+4'Antonio PalumboAssist: Dennis Johnsen
90+6'Manuel CicconiFoul

Lineups

Palermo
4-3-3Coach: F. Inzaghi
Sampdoria
4-3-3Coach: B. Corradi
Avg rating6.80
Avg rating6.34
M. Perin6.81M. Perin
N. Pierozzi6.627N. Pierozzi
M. Bani6.913M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni6.932P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello6.43T. Augello
J. Segre6.78J. Segre
F. Ranocchia6.610F. Ranocchia
Hernani6.323Hernani
Gabriel Strefezza7.97G. Strefezza
J. Pohjanpalo8.020J. Pohjanpalo
D. Johnsen7.017D. Johnsen
P. Vindahl6.11P. Vindahl
A. Di Pardo6.129A. Di Pardo
S. Gartenmann6.23S. Gartenmann
F. Delli Carri6.315F. Delli Carri
M. Cicconi5.77M. Cicconi
A. Makoumbou6.745A. Makoumbou
Y. Verschaeren5.816Y. Verschaeren
L. Henderson6.26L. Henderson
D. Sinani6.820D. Sinani
G. Tutino6.599G. Tutino
L. Insigne7.610L. Insigne

Palermo Substitutes

12M. Nespola
96G. Magnani
11E. Gyasi
6C. Gomes
99A. Gabrielloni84'for Joel Pohjanpalo6.7
24N. Estévez65'for Filippo·Ranocchia6.6
84T. Cassandro65'for Niccolo Pierozzi6.3
33A. Bozzolan
93F. Barba
14M. Fortin
5A. Palumbo45'for Hernani90+2'90+4'6.8
9D. Vavassori21'for Gabriel Strefezza6.5

Sampdoria Substitutes

28O. Abildgaard70'for Lorenzo Insigne6.0
11T. Begić53'for Danel Sinani6.5
25A. Ferrari
96S. Massolo
39L. Mezzotero83'for Yari Verschaeren6.3
41Noà Mondani
12A. Krastev
40Federico Piermattei
35Leo Rodella

Match Stats

PalermoSampdoria
46%Ball Possession54%
2Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots14
6Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal9
10Shots Inside Box9
4Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots0
14Fouls10
1Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves3
423Total Passes489
333Passes Accurate404
10Free Kicks13

Team Comparison

PalermoPalermo
SampdoriaSampdoria
1769Elo Rating 1521
2.15Attack 1.04
1.75Defense 1.45
54%Hit Rate 27%
17.6Shots per Game 12.3
5.3Shots on Target 4.0
3.3Corners per Game 5.5
0.9Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+247 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.86 goals

Game State Tendencies

PalermoPalermo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SampdoriaSampdoria
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0 in second half)

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

PalermoPalermo2Wins · 29%
Draws457%
SampdoriaSampdoria1Wins · 14%
2.6Avg Goals
57%Both teams scored4 of 7
29%3+ goals2 of 7

Previous meetings

Serie B10/02/2026
SampdoriaPalermo
33
Serie B12/12/2025
PalermoSampdoria
10
Serie B08/03/2025
SampdoriaPalermo
11
Serie B24/11/2024
PalermoSampdoria
11
Serie B17/05/2024
PalermoSampdoria
20
Serie B06/04/2024
PalermoSampdoria
22
Serie B04/11/2023
SampdoriaPalermo
10

Recent Form

PalermoPalermo
6W2D2L
03/09/2026
PalermoMantova
52
W
30/08/2026
ArezzoPalermo
23
W
23/08/2026
PalermoJuve Stabia
10
W
17/08/2026
PalermoLecce
20
W
11/08/2026
JuventusPalermo
20
L
07/08/2026
Melbourne CityPalermo
02
W
29/07/2026
PalermoIraklis 1908
11
D
25/07/2026
Palermo1. FC Nürnberg
22
D
22/07/2026
PalermoParadiso
70
W
18/07/2026
FC Ingolstadt 04Palermo
10
L
SampdoriaSampdoria
3W3D4L
29/08/2026
SampdoriaJuve Stabia
12
L
23/08/2026
CesenaSampdoria
11
D
17/08/2026
CremoneseSampdoria
20
L
09/08/2026
ParmaSampdoria
02
W
01/08/2026
SampdoriaNovara
12
L
23/07/2026
SampdoriaCagliari
00
D
18/07/2026
SampdoriaTaverne
20
W
08/05/2026
ReggianaSampdoria
10
L
01/05/2026
SampdoriaSudtirol
10
W
25/04/2026
CesenaSampdoria
00
D

Referee Profile

M. Marchetti122 matches

4.29Cards per match
4.11Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
27.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

M. Marchetti4.29
Other referees4.65

4.29 cards a match, 0.36 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.65).

Cards come from 113 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie B 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PalermoPalermo1183025:13+1227DWDWW
2ModenaModena1172220:10+1023WDWWL
3AscoliAscoli1155117:7+1020DDWWD
4MantovaMantova1154215:11+419DDLWL
5AvellinoAvellino1144316:11+516DWDLD
6BeneventoBenevento1144315:11+416DLDWD
7Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1144319:13+616DWWDD
8PisaPisa1144320:17+316DLDDW
9CremoneseCremonese1143414:12+215WWWLL
10PadovaPadova1143412:13-115DDWWL
11CesenaCesena1136212:14-215WDWLD
12SudtirolSudtirol1136213:12+115DDLDL
13Juve StabiaJuve Stabia1144312:11+112WDLWW
14ArezzoArezzo113269:20-1111LDLLW
15SampdoriaSampdoria1132611:18-711WWLDL
16Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella1124511:14-310LLDLW
17CarrareseCarrarese113179:14-510LLWLW
18Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus1123614:24-109LLLWD
19EmpoliEmpoli1123612:19-79DDLLD
20CatanzaroCatanzaro1113711:23-126LDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PalermoPalermo1125:1327
2ModenaModena1120:1023
3AscoliAscoli1117:720
4MantovaMantova1115:1119
5AvellinoAvellino1116:1116
6BeneventoBenevento1115:1116
7Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1119:1316
8PisaPisa1120:1716
9CremoneseCremonese1114:1215
10PadovaPadova1112:1315
11CesenaCesena1112:1415
12SudtirolSudtirol1113:1215
13Juve StabiaJuve Stabia1112:1112
14ArezzoArezzo119:2011
15SampdoriaSampdoria1111:1811
16Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella1111:1410
17CarrareseCarrarese119:1410
18Vicenza VirtusVicenza Virtus1114:249
19EmpoliEmpoli1112:199
20CatanzaroCatanzaro1111:236
PromotionRelegation

About the Palermo vs Sampdoria forecast

The forecasts for this Serie B match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Palermo and Sampdoria in the Serie B table

In the Serie B table, Palermo are 1st and Sampdoria 15th, 16 points apart. League goal record so far: Palermo 25-13, Sampdoria 11-18. The full standings are on the Serie B Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.