PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

PAOK
2-0
Finished
HT 2-0
Aris Thessalonikis
Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki 13/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.1 / 10
Value Analysis
54%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.95
SignalGOODModel54%RiskHighGap+4.9%
PAOK Rest
6 days
Aris Thessalonikis Rest
3 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.60
X
23%3.94
2
27%5.40
Double Chance
1X
73%1.13
X2
50%2.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.93
No
46%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 1.11 = 2.70
Over 1.5
78%1.29
Over 2.5
52%1.95
Over 3.5
31%3.40
Under 1.5
22%3.40
Under 2.5
48%1.82
Under 3.5
69%1.29
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 4.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
33%1.90
Over 9.5
33%2.44
Over 10.5
12%3.28
Under 8.5
67%1.84
Under 9.5
67%1.49
Under 10.5
88%1.25
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 2.7 = 4.8
Over 3.5
70%1.12
Over 4.5
51%1.26
Under 3.5
30%5.70
Under 4.5
49%3.65

Match Events

3'Jonjoe KennyFoul
20'Christos ZafeirisFoul
25'Tino KadewereFoul
30'Penalty confirmedCherif Ndiaye
32'Cherif Ndiaye(Penalty)
42'Andrija Živković
45'Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru INManu García out
61'Tino Kadewere INLoren Moron out
64'Christos Zafeiris INKristijan Jakić out
73'Taison Barcellos Freda INMady Camara out
73'Dimitrios Pelkas INDimitrios Chatsidis out
77'Cherif NdiayeFoul
78'Noah Fadiga INJeremy Petris out
78'Giannis Gianniotas INChristian Kouamé out
85'Benjamin Garré INSebastián Palacios out
85'Cherif Ndiaye INAnestis Mythou out
85'Andrija Živković INTaha Ali out

Lineups

PAOK
4-2-3-1Coach: A. Lisci
Aris Thessalonikis
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Grigoriou
J. Pavlenka1J. PavlenkaJ. Pavlenka
J. Kenny3J. KennyJ. Kenny
Diego Costa19D. CostaDiego Costa
G. Michailidis5G. MichailidisG. Michailidis
A. Baba21A. BabaA. Baba
C. Zafeiris20C. ZafeirisC. Zafeiris
O. Ugresić16O. UgresićO. Ugresić
A. Živković14A. ŽivkovićA. Živković
D. Pelkas10D. PelkasD. Pelkas
Taison11TaisonTaison
C. Ndiaye27C. NdiayeC. Ndiaye
Ricardo Velho33R. VelhoRicardo Velho
N. Fadiga27N. FadigaN. Fadiga
Fabiano4FabianoFabiano
B. Šutalo44B. ŠutaloB. Šutalo
O. Richards3O. RichardsO. Richards
T. Dele-Bashiru20T. Dele-BashiruT. Dele-Bashiru
U. Račić10U. RačićU. Račić
B. Garré7B. GarréB. Garré
F. Jensen97F. JensenF. Jensen
G. Gianniotas70G. GianniotasG. Gianniotas
T. Kadewere9T. KadewereT. Kadewere

PAOK Substitutes

97D. BataoulasD
2M. CamaraM
52D. ChatsidisF
18K. JakićM
78G. KosidisD
56A. MythouF
7B. SantamaríaM
47S. ShoretireF
32G. TaylorD
25K. ThymianisD
99A. TsiftsisG
22T. AliM

Aris Thessalonikis Substitutes

8C. KouaméF
5Manu GarcíaM
41Konstantinos CharoupasM
49O. BoussaidM
24Apostolos barbopoulosG
21L. MajkićG
17Rafa MirF
80Loren MorónF
34S. PalaciosF
2J. PétrisD
45Matar ThiamD
22M. VoriazidisM

Match Stats

PAOKAris Thessalonikis
46%Ball Possession54%
3Corner Kicks7
3Yellow Cards1
13Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box11
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots8
15Fouls15
3Goalkeeper Saves4
367Total Passes424
275Passes Accurate335
13Free Kicks15

Team Comparison

PAOKPAOK
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
1681Elo Rating 1617
1.38Attack 0.98
1.72Defense 0.81
44%Hit Rate 31%
10.5Shots per Game 12.8
4.1Shots on Target 4.3
3.0Corners per Game 4.4
2.5Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

🔥Derby Match
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

PAOKPAOK
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

PAOK 23%Draw 63%14% Aris Thessalonikis
1.45Avg Goals
42%BTTS Rate
23%Over 2.5

League Table

Super League 1 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos440011:2+912WWWW
2PAOKPAOK43019:4+59WLWW
3OFIOFI43016:2+49WWLW
4PanetolikosPanetolikos43017:4+39LWWW
5AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC422011:2+98DWDW
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus42113:2+17LDWW
7Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis42025:10-56LLWW
8Iraklis 1908Iraklis 190841214:6-25DWDL
9KalamataKalamata41126:7-14WDLL
10AtromitosAtromitos40223:5-22DDLL
11Volos NFCVolos NFC40223:7-42LDDL
12KifisiaKifisia40222:6-42DLLD
13Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis40132:7-51DLLL
14LevadiakosLevadiakos40130:8-81DLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1PanathinaikosPanathinaikos411:212
2PAOKPAOK49:49
3OFIOFI46:29
4PanetolikosPanetolikos47:49
5AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC411:28
6Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus43:27
7Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis45:106
8Iraklis 1908Iraklis 190844:65
9KalamataKalamata46:74
10AtromitosAtromitos43:52
11Volos NFCVolos NFC43:72
12KifisiaKifisia42:62
13Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis42:71
14LevadiakosLevadiakos40:81
Conference LeaguePromotionRelegation

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction

This Super League 1 meeting between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis carries extra rivalry weight, and our AI model factors that context in alongside team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history across six independent markets.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Super League 1

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Key Factors for This Match

PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis have met 5 times recently, averaging 1.45 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.