Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction

Florian-Krygier-Stadion, Szczecin·Piotr Lasyk 11/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.34
SignalGOODModel43%SurpriseMediumGap-4.1%
Pogon Szczecin Rest
15 days
Korona Kielce Rest
8 days

Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce: the result in context

Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 2-0 in the Ekstraklasa on 11 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 8 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Piotr Lasyk averages 3.86 cards a game, 0.56 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
43%2.20
X
28%3.40
2
29%3.00
Double Chance
1X
71%1.34
X2
56%1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.65
No
42%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.77 + 1.15 = 2.92
Over 1.5
77%1.23
Over 2.5
55%1.78
Over 3.5
33%2.92
Under 1.5
23%3.80
Under 2.5
45%2.01
Under 3.5
67%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 4.4 = 9.9
Over 8.5
62%1.53
Over 9.5
52%1.93
Over 10.5
38%2.44
Under 8.5
38%2.31
Under 9.5
48%1.80
Under 10.5
62%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
57%-
Over 4.5
38%-
Under 3.5
43%-
Under 4.5
62%-

Match Events

20'Alessandro RiccioFoul
21'Óscar García JunyentDissent
36'Maciej WojciechowskiFoul
45+1'Maciej WojciechowskiAssist: Paul Omo Mukairu
56'Ondrej Lingr INMartin Remacle out
56'Mariusz Stępiński INDaniel Bak out
73'Darko Churlinov INKamil Grosicki out
73'Jordi Sánchez INJean-Pierre Nsame out
83'Jan Bieganski INKellyn Acosta out
86'Paul Omo MukairuAssist: Jean-Pierre Nsame
87'Camilo Mena INDawid Błanik out
88'Patrik Hellebrand INMorgan Faßbender out
90+1'Benjamin Mendy INLukas Willen out
90+1'Paul Omo Mukairu INIsaiah·Eichie out

Lineups

Pogon Szczecin
4-2-3-1Coach: Óscar García
Korona Kielce
4-2-3-1Coach: J. Zielinski
Avg rating7.15
Avg rating6.40
V. Cojocaru7.177V. Cojocaru
A. Riccio6.94A. Riccio
D. Keramitsis7.413D. Keramitsis
A. Szalai7.441A. Szalai
B. Mendy7.023B. Mendy
P. Dziczek7.216P. Dziczek
J. Biegański7.06J. Biegański
D. Churlinov6.621D. Churlinov
M. Wojciechowski8.235M. Wojciechowski
P. Mukairu8.618P. Mukairu
Jordi Sánchez6.322J. Sánchez
X. Dziekoński5.91X. Dziekoński
W. Długosz6.371W. Długosz
S. Rubežić6.823S. Rubežić
A. Mosór6.92A. Mosór
M. Pięczek6.56M. Pięczek
Kamil Jakubczyk6.735K. Jakubczyk
P. Hellebrand7.018P. Hellebrand
C. Mena6.130C. Mena
O. Lingr5.832O. Lingr
M. Ameyaw6.419M. Ameyaw
M. Stępiński6.214M. Stępiński

Pogon Szczecin Substitutes

3K. Acosta83'for Jan Bieganski6.8
10F. Čuić
30J. Czaplinski
98M. Dabrowski
11K. Grosicki73'for Darko Churlinov6.9
47N. Lawa
17J. Nsame73'for Jordi Sánchez6.9
75A. Ossowski
29L. Willen90+1'for Benjamin Mendy
9R. Molnár
20Isaiah·Eichie90+1'replaced by Paul Omo Mukairu
31Nikolaos Nestoras Botis

Korona Kielce Substitutes

8M. Remacle56'for Ondrej Lingr6.6
10Nono
11K. Matuszewski
87R. Mamla
86Simon Gustafson
22M. Faßbender88'for Patrik Hellebrand6.6
7D. Błanik87'for Camilo Mena6.1
67N. Barczak
99Daniel Bak56'for Mariusz Stępiński6.2
24B. Smolarczyk
44K. Sotiriou

Match Stats

Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce
48%Ball Possession52%
2Corner Kicks7
2Yellow Cards0
7Total Shots17
2Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal8
5Shots Inside Box12
2Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots6
21Fouls6
0Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves0
403Total Passes414
339Passes Accurate356
84%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
1634Elo Rating 1560
2.31Attack 1.00
2.03Defense 0.62
100%Hit Rate 44%
11.3Shots per Game 15.0
4.6Shots on Target 5.3
2.7Corners per Game 7.4
1.1Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.92 goals
📊Home Overperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.4 vs 0.9 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin4Wins · 50%
Draws338%
Korona KielceKorona Kielce1Wins · 12%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored4 of 8
63%3+ goals5 of 8

Previous meetings

Ekstraklasa16/03/2026
Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce
21
Ekstraklasa13/09/2025
Korona KielcePogon Szczecin
10
Ekstraklasa09/12/2024
Korona KielcePogon Szczecin
00
Ekstraklasa20/07/2024
Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce
30
Ekstraklasa17/03/2024
Korona KielcePogon Szczecin
22
Ekstraklasa16/09/2023
Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce
31
Ekstraklasa18/03/2023
Pogon SzczecinKorona Kielce
00
Ekstraklasa04/09/2022
Korona KielcePogon Szczecin
12

Referee Profile

Piotr Lasyk158 matches

3.86Cards per match
3.74Yellow cards per match
0.11Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Piotr Lasyk3.86
Other referees4.42

3.86 cards a match, 0.56 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.42).

Cards come from 125 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1191129:10+1928WWWWL
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1283121:11+1027DDWDW
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1173119:9+1024WWWWW
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1265123:11+1223LDWWD
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1263319:15+421WDLWW
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1262422:18+420WDWLW
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1254315:15019DWLLW
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1260622:17+518LLWWW
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1253414:18-418WLLWL
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1150614:17-315WLLLL
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1142510:16-614LWLWW
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1234517:21-413DWWDL
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1233614:19-512LDWLL
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1218315:16-111DDLDD
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1223716:22-69WLLLL
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1222816:23-78LLLWD
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1222812:28-168LLLLL
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa12201016:28-126LWLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Lech PoznanLech Poznan1129:1028
2Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze1221:1127
3Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin1119:924
4Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa1223:1123
5Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow1219:1521
6Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1222:1820
7Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin1215:1519
8GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice1222:1718
9Korona KielceKorona Kielce1214:1818
10JagielloniaJagiellonia1114:1715
11Wisla PlockWisla Plock1110:1614
12Motor LublinMotor Lublin1217:2113
13Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow1214:1912
14Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź1215:1611
15Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw1216:229
16Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków1216:238
17Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom1212:288
18Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa1216:286
Relegation

About the Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce forecast

The forecasts for this Ekstraklasa match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa table

In the Ekstraklasa table, Pogon Szczecin are 3rd and Korona Kielce 9th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Pogon Szczecin 19-9, Korona Kielce 14-18. The full standings are on the Ekstraklasa Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.