Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction

Primera División - AperturaUruguay Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 6
Progreso
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Deportivo Maldonado
Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo 18/07/2026
ProgresoProgreso
1-0
Finished
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.33
SignalSTRONGModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+6.4%
Progreso Rest
6 days
Deportivo Maldonado Rest
7 days

Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: result, form and history

Progreso beat Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 in the Primera División - Apertura on 18 Jul 2026. That went against recent form: Deportivo Maldonado had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Progreso.

Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Deportivo Maldonado tend to win more corners, 8.5 a game to 3.9 for Progreso.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
23%3.95
X
21%3.30
2
56%1.88
Double Chance
1X
44%1.85
X2
77%1.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.85
No
42%1.83
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.12 + 1.92 = 3.04
Over 1.5
82%1.33
Over 2.5
59%2.05
Over 3.5
36%3.75
Under 1.5
18%3.10
Under 2.5
41%1.72
Under 3.5
64%1.25
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

10'A. Ocampo(Penalty)
28'F. Tealde
35'A. Ocampo
41'A. Cougo
46'S. Cartagena ING. Lopez out
57'M. Copelotti INM. Juambeltz out
57'F. De Leon ING. Trasante out
58'A. Cougo
58'A. Cougo
61'A. Ocampo INF. Kidd out
64'S. Cardozo Coitinho
76'A. Requena
77'J. M. Ginzo INL. Ibanez out
77'S. Tormo INE. Mozzone out
77'E. Alvarez ING. Silva out
78'N. Lopez INI. Lemmo out
86'F. Tealde INH. Menosse out
86'G. Larrazabal INJ. Fernandez out
90+1'G. Silva
90+1'R. Cesar
90+6'H. Menosse

Team Comparison

ProgresoProgreso
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado
1460Elo Rating 1684
1.07Attack 2.20
1.87Defense 2.17
42%Hit Rate 56%
7.3Shots per Game 14.8
3.4Shots on Target 6.1
3.9Corners per Game 8.5
2.4Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.04 goals
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

ProgresoProgreso
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

ProgresoProgreso1Wins · 25%
Draws125%
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado2Wins · 50%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura14/02/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoProgreso
20
Primera División - Apertura21/07/2024
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
01
Primera División - Apertura31/03/2024
ProgresoDeportivo Maldonado
31
Primera División - Apertura24/06/2021
Deportivo MaldonadoProgreso
11

Recent Form

ProgresoProgreso
2W0D8L
11/07/2026
WanderersProgreso
20
L
07/06/2026
ProgresoAlbion FC
12
L
30/05/2026
DanubioProgreso
12
W
23/05/2026
ProgresoAtletico Torque
12
L
16/05/2026
JuventudProgreso
20
L
10/05/2026
Atletico TorqueProgreso
21
L
03/05/2026
ProgresoCerro Largo
01
L
28/04/2026
Defensor SportingProgreso
10
L
18/04/2026
ProgresoWanderers
21
W
12/04/2026
JuventudProgreso
10
L
Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado
6W3D1L
11/07/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoAlbion FC
11
D
06/06/2026
Atletico TorqueDeportivo Maldonado
24
W
31/05/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoClub Nacional
30
W
24/05/2026
WanderersDeportivo Maldonado
11
D
18/05/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoDanubio
31
W
11/05/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoBoston River
21
W
02/05/2026
CerroDeportivo Maldonado
01
W
25/04/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoAlbion FC
12
L
19/04/2026
DanubioDeportivo Maldonado
11
D
12/04/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoClub Nacional
42
W

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque351961059:41+1863WDLDL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional351941253:42+1161LWLLW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo351611847:31+1659DLWLD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
9JuventudJuventud3510111437:43-641DDWLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting359121435:43-839WDWLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River351071834:47-1337LWLWW
14CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
15ProgresoProgreso351052031:49-1835LWLLD
16DanubioDanubio356141529:45-1632WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3559:4163
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3553:4261
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3547:3159
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
9JuventudJuventud3537:4341
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3535:4339
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
13Boston RiverBoston River3534:4737
14CerroCerro3529:5337
15ProgresoProgreso3531:4935
16DanubioDanubio3529:4532

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72431415129:75+54140LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7234221698:68+30124DLWLD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72321624113:92+21112WDLDL
7JuventudJuventud7228182682:820102DDWLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7227192677:81-4100WDWLD
9Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
10Boston RiverBoston River7224202884:86-292LWLWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7216272970:86-1675WDDDL
16ProgresoProgreso7220143869:109-4074LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72129:75140
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7298:68124
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72113:92112
7JuventudJuventud7282:82102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7277:81100
9Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
10Boston RiverBoston River7284:8692
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7270:8675
16ProgresoProgreso7269:10974

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815WLLLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612LDWWL
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012WDLDL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DDWLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWWDD
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56LWLLD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829LDWWL
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWWDD
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623WDLDL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LWLLW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221WDWLD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220DLWLD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418WDDDL
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617LWLWW
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DDWLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110LWLLD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1393122:8+1430DLWLD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1391326:14+1228WDLDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1382319:13+626LWLLW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1364318:10+822LDWWL
5PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1361613:15-219LWLLD
8JuventudJuventud1346312:10+218DDWLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1343615:17-215LWLWW
12Albion FCAlbion FC1341815:20-513WWWDD
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1333716:23-712WDWLD
14DanubioDanubio132477:15-810WDDDL
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1322:830
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1326:1428
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1319:1326
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1318:1022
5PenarolPenarol1317:922
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1313:1519
8JuventudJuventud1312:1018
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1315:1715
12Albion FCAlbion FC1315:2013
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1316:2312
14DanubioDanubio137:1510
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
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About the Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División - Apertura table

The table shows a wide gap: Deportivo Maldonado are 2nd in the Primera División - Apertura, while Progreso sit 15th, 28 points behind. League goal record so far: Progreso 31-49, Deportivo Maldonado 54-32. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.