Penarol vs Boston River Prediction

Primera División - AperturaUruguay Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 6
Penarol
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Boston River
18/07/2026
PenarolPenarol
3-0
Finished
Boston RiverBoston River

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
63%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel63%SurpriseMediumGap-2.6%
Penarol Rest
5 days
Boston River Rest
6 days

Penarol vs Boston River: the result in context

Penarol beat Boston River 3-0 in the Primera División - Apertura on 18 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Penarol had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Boston River.

Penarol have had the better of this fixture, winning 7 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. Penarol tend to win more corners, 4.6 a game to 1.7 for Boston River.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.53
X
23%3.85
2
14%5.75
Double Chance
1X
86%1.11
X2
37%2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.93
No
49%1.74
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.94 + 0.88 = 2.82
Over 1.5
76%1.29
Over 2.5
56%1.90
Over 3.5
33%3.30
Under 1.5
24%3.35
Under 2.5
44%1.84
Under 3.5
67%1.31
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

38'F. Bonfiglio
40'E. Darias
41'M. Gonzalez
46'L. Suhr INF. Perez out
46'Y. Gonzalez INF. Aristegui out
51'F. Aristegui
64'C. Jaime
69'F. Munoa ING. Ramirez out
69'F. Bonfiglio INA. Fernandez out
70'L. Umpierrez INL. Angulo out
73'M. Lemos INF. Romero out
73'M. Arezo INA. Hernandez out
80'R. A. Saravia Salvia
81'M. GonzalezOG
82'C. Jaime INF. Batista out
83'J. Cabrera INI. Alegre out
85'J. Acosta
88'A. Aguirre
90+1'F. Romero
90+3'L. Ferreira

Team Comparison

PenarolPenarol
Boston RiverBoston River
1635Elo Rating 1510
0.41Attack 0.93
1.97Defense 2.15
0%Hit Rate 44%
10.8Shots per Game 10.4
3.0Shots on Target 2.9
4.6Corners per Game 1.7
4.5Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+125 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy2.82 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PenarolPenarol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.4 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Boston RiverBoston River
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

PenarolPenarol7Wins · 70%
Draws330%
Boston RiverBoston River0Wins · 0%
2.6Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura26/03/2026
Boston RiverPenarol
02
Copa De La Liga Auf24/01/2026
PenarolBoston River
2242
Primera División - Apertura15/02/2025
PenarolBoston River
11
Primera División - Apertura20/04/2024
Boston RiverPenarol
13
Copa Uruguay06/02/2024
PenarolBoston River
20
Primera División - Apertura16/07/2023
PenarolBoston River
21
Primera División - Apertura20/02/2023
PenarolBoston River
10
Copa Uruguay29/09/2022
PenarolBoston River
1000
Primera División - Apertura22/05/2022
PenarolBoston River
10
Primera División - Apertura30/05/2021
PenarolBoston River
52

Recent Form

PenarolPenarol
4W4D2L
12/07/2026
Racing MontevideoPenarol
11
D07/06/2026
CerroPenarol
01
W
02/06/2026
PenarolCentral Espanol
01
L
28/05/2026
PenarolSanta Fe
01
L
24/05/2026
Defensor SportingPenarol
02
W
22/05/2026
PenarolCorinthians
11
D
16/05/2026
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
21
W
12/05/2026
Cerro LargoPenarol
23
W
08/05/2026
PlatensePenarol
11
D
05/05/2026
PenarolDefensor Sporting
11
D
Boston RiverBoston River
3W2D5L
12/07/2026
Boston RiverCentral Espanol
00
D07/06/2026
Defensor SportingBoston River
11
D
01/06/2026
Boston RiverLiverpool Montevideo
01
L
27/05/2026
Sao PauloBoston River
20
L
23/05/2026
Cerro LargoBoston River
30
L
21/05/2026
Boston RiverO'Higgins
32
W
16/05/2026
Boston RiverCerro
41
W
11/05/2026
Deportivo MaldonadoBoston River
21
L
08/05/2026
Boston RiverMillonarios
24
L
03/05/2026
Boston RiverCentral Espanol
21
W

League Table

Primera División - Apertura 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque351961059:41+1863WDLDL
4Club NacionalClub Nacional351941253:42+1161LWLLW
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo351611847:31+1659DLWLD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
9JuventudJuventud3510111437:43-641DDWLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting359121435:43-839WDWLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River351071834:47-1337LWLWW
14CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
15ProgresoProgreso351052031:49-1835LWLLD
16DanubioDanubio356141529:45-1632WDDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3559:4163
4Club NacionalClub Nacional3553:4261
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3547:3159
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
9JuventudJuventud3537:4341
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3535:4339
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
13Boston RiverBoston River3534:4737
14CerroCerro3529:5337
15ProgresoProgreso3531:4935
16DanubioDanubio3529:4532

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72431415129:75+54140LWLLW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado35189854:32+2263LDWWL
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7234221698:68+30124DLWLD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72321624113:92+21112WDLDL
7JuventudJuventud7228182682:820102DDWLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7227192677:81-4100WDWLD
9Albion FCAlbion FC351381447:44+347WWWDD
10Boston RiverBoston River7224202884:86-292LWLWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7216272970:86-1675WDDDL
16ProgresoProgreso7220143869:109-4074LWLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional72129:75140
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3554:3263
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7298:68124
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque72113:92112
7JuventudJuventud7282:82102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7277:81100
9Albion FCAlbion FC3547:4447
10Boston RiverBoston River7284:8692
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7270:8675
16ProgresoProgreso7269:10974

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916LDLWL
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LLDDW
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110WDWWW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509DLWLD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409WLDWW
6CerroCerro73046:10-49LDDWL
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36WDWLD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55LWLWW
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829LDWWL
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWWDD
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623WDLDL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522LWLLW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221WDWLD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220DLWLD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418WDDDL
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617LWLWW
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DDWLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110LWLLD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1393122:8+1430DLWLD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1391326:14+1228WDLDL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1382319:13+626LWLLW
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1364318:10+822LDWWL
5PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1361613:15-219LWLLD
8JuventudJuventud1346312:10+218DDWLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1343615:17-215LWLWW
12Albion FCAlbion FC1341815:20-513WWWDD
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1333716:23-712WDWLD
14DanubioDanubio132477:15-810WDDDL
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1322:830
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1326:1428
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1319:1326
4Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1318:1022
5PenarolPenarol1317:922
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1313:1519
8JuventudJuventud1312:1018
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1315:1715
12Albion FCAlbion FC1315:2013
13Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1316:2312
14DanubioDanubio137:1510
15Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
PromotionRelegation

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About the Penarol vs Boston River forecast

The forecasts for this Primera División - Apertura match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Penarol and Boston River in the Primera División - Apertura table

The table shows a wide gap: Penarol are 1st in the Primera División - Apertura, while Boston River sit 13th, 28 points behind. League goal record so far: Penarol 52-28, Boston River 34-47. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.