Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction
Uruguay · Torneo Intermedio - 6
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.40
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Defensor Sporting Rest
11 days
Liverpool Montevideo Rest
13 days
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo: the result in context
Liverpool Montevideo beat Defensor Sporting 2-1 in the Primera División - Apertura on 25 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 9 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.89 cards a game, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
149%2.52
X30%3.00
221%2.72
Double Chance
1X78%1.40
X251%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes45%1.98
No55%1.73
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.25 + 0.94 = 2.19
Over 1.563%1.44
Over 2.535%2.35
Over 3.517%4.50
Under 1.537%2.62
Under 2.565%1.54
Under 3.583%1.18
Corners
Corner forecasts not available for this match
Cards
Card forecasts not available for this match
Match Events
9'R. Bentancourt
34'A. Cayetano INS. Milano out
39'N. Garayalde
45+1'L. Acosta
45+2'G. De los Santos
45+6'M. Rabunal
46'A. Torterolo INA. Machado out
57'M. Rabunal INN. Medina out
63'L. Acosta INF. Barcelo out
63'R. Bentancourt INE. Olivera out
64'N. Wunsch INA. Perdomo out
80'F. Martinez IND. Zabala out
80'R. Machado INR. M. Degregorio out
88'L. Agazzi ING. Rodriguez out
88'B. Montenegro INL. Navarro out
90+2'E. Olivera
90+3'E. Castillo
Lineups
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo
4-3-3Coach: Jorge Fossati
12K. Dawson
11L. Agazzi
24L. De los Santos
3G. De los Santos
15A. Frugone
6M. Amaro
55M. Rabuñal
5G. Barrios
8N. Wunsch
26B. Montenegro
22A. Torterolo
1M. Bernatene
3S. Strasorier
23E. Castillo
18A. Cayetano
34K. Lewis
24K. Amaro
5N. Garayalde
16L. Acosta
9R. Machado
19R. Bentancourt
7F. MartínezDefensor Sporting Substitutes
9Alexander Machado46'for A. Torterolo
31Nicolás Medina57'for M. Rabunal
10Alex Perdomo
4Geanfranco Rodríguez
28Lautaro Navarro88'for B. Montenegro
1Lucas Machado
20Mateo Caballero
25Diego Abella
27Juan Manuel Jorge
33Santino Bruschi Díaz
Liverpool Montevideo Substitutes
6Santiago Milano34'for A. Cayetano
29Ezequiel Olivera63'for R. Bentancourt90+2'
31Facundo Barceló63'for L. Acosta
22Diego Zabala80'for F. Martinez
10Ramiro Matias Degregorio80'for R. Machado
25Martín Campaña
27Diego Romero
8Matías Mir
17Gonzalo de Mello
26Thiago Brizuela
Team Comparison
Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo1476Elo Rating 1669
1.84Attack 1.50
1.20Defense 3.00
27%Hit Rate 100%
7.7Shots per Game 6.7
3.9Shots on Target 3.1
4.3Corners per Game 4.2
3.6Cards per Game 3.9
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend44% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
Defensor Sporting- Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Liverpool Montevideo- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.9 vs 0.6 in second half)
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings, all competitions
Defensor Sporting3Wins · 33%Draws222%
Liverpool Montevideo4Wins · 45%
4Wins · 45%2.7Avg Goals
44%Both teams scored4 of 9
56%3+ goals5 of 9
Previous meetings
14/02/2026Liverpool MontevideoDefensor Sporting12
15/06/2025Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo42
07/03/2025Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo01
19/04/2024Liverpool MontevideoDefensor Sporting11
01/02/2024Liverpool MontevideoDefensor Sporting10
30/07/2023Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo01
12/03/2023Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo22
04/10/2022Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo30
05/02/2022Defensor SportingLiverpool Montevideo03
Recent Form
Defensor Sporting1W5D4L
14/07/2026
Cerro LargoDefensor SportingDefensor Sporting
Boston River
Cerro LargoDefensor Sporting11
D04/07/2026
CruzeiroDefensor Sporting
07/06/2026CruzeiroDefensor Sporting20
LDefensor SportingBoston River11
D30/05/2026
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting00
D24/05/2026Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Defensor SportingPenarol02
L17/05/2026
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting
Central EspanolDefensor Sporting21
L10/05/2026Defensor Sporting
Juventud
Defensor SportingJuventud12
L05/05/2026PenarolDefensor Sporting
PenarolDefensor Sporting11
D28/04/2026Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Defensor SportingProgreso10
W18/04/2026Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting
Racing MontevideoDefensor Sporting11
DLiverpool Montevideo3W3D4L
12/07/2026Liverpool Montevideo
CerroLiverpool MontevideoCerro Largo
Liverpool MontevideoCerro12
L09/06/2026Liverpool MontevideoCerro Largo00
D01/06/2026Boston RiverLiverpool Montevideo
Boston RiverLiverpool Montevideo01
W23/05/2026Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo
Liverpool MontevideoRacing Montevideo00
D16/05/2026PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo21
L09/05/2026
WanderersLiverpool Montevideo
WanderersLiverpool Montevideo10
L02/05/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
Liverpool MontevideoDanubio30
W25/04/2026JuventudLiverpool Montevideo
JuventudLiverpool Montevideo11
D20/04/2026Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
Liverpool MontevideoClub Nacional13
L14/04/2026PenarolLiverpool Montevideo
PenarolLiverpool Montevideo02
WReferee Profile
4.89Cards per match
4.67Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.89 cards a match, 1.08 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.97).
Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Primera: Tabla Anual
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 52:28 | +24 | 65 | LDLWL |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 59:41 | +18 | 63 | WDLDL |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 53:42 | +11 | 61 | LWLLW |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 45:31 | +14 | 60 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 47:31 | +16 | 59 | DLWLD |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 42:44 | -2 | 51 | WLLLW |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 37:43 | -6 | 41 | DDWLL |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 35:43 | -8 | 39 | WDWLD |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 33:41 | -8 | 37 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 34:47 | -13 | 37 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 29:53 | -24 | 37 | LDDWL |
| 15 | Progreso | 35 | 10 | 5 | 20 | 31:49 | -18 | 35 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 29:45 | -16 | 32 | WDDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 35 | 52:28 | 65 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 35 | 59:41 | 63 |
| 4 | Club Nacional | 35 | 53:42 | 61 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 35 | 45:31 | 60 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | 47:31 | 59 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 35 | 42:44 | 51 |
| 8 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Juventud | 35 | 37:43 | 41 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 35 | 35:43 | 39 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 35 | 33:41 | 37 |
| 13 | Boston River | 35 | 34:47 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 35 | 29:53 | 37 |
| 15 | Progreso | 35 | 31:49 | 35 |
| 16 | Danubio | 35 | 29:45 | 32 |
Primera: Promedios
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 43 | 15 | 14 | 118:62 | +56 | 144 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 43 | 14 | 15 | 129:75 | +54 | 140 | LWLLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | +22 | 63 | LDWWL |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 34 | 22 | 16 | 98:68 | +30 | 124 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 84:69 | +15 | 113 | WDWWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 32 | 16 | 24 | 113:92 | +21 | 112 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 28 | 18 | 26 | 82:82 | 0 | 102 | DDWLL |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 77:81 | -4 | 100 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 47:44 | +3 | 47 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 24 | 20 | 28 | 84:86 | -2 | 92 | LWLWW |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 21 | 23 | 28 | 74:82 | -8 | 86 | LLDDW |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 35:48 | -13 | 41 | WLDWW |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 22 | 18 | 32 | 62:95 | -33 | 83 | LDDWL |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 20 | 22 | 30 | 67:91 | -24 | 82 | WLLLW |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 16 | 27 | 29 | 70:86 | -16 | 75 | WDDDL |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 20 | 14 | 38 | 69:109 | -40 | 74 | LWLLD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 72 | 118:62 | 144 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 72 | 129:75 | 140 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | 54:32 | 63 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 72 | 98:68 | 124 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 72 | 84:69 | 113 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 72 | 113:92 | 112 |
| 7 | Juventud | 72 | 82:82 | 102 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 72 | 77:81 | 100 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 35 | 47:44 | 47 |
| 10 | Boston River | 72 | 84:86 | 92 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 72 | 74:82 | 86 |
| 12 | Central Espanol | 35 | 35:48 | 41 |
| 13 | Cerro | 72 | 62:95 | 83 |
| 14 | Wanderers | 72 | 67:91 | 82 |
| 15 | Danubio | 72 | 70:86 | 75 |
| 16 | Progreso | 72 | 69:109 | 74 |
Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:3 | +9 | 16 | LDLWL |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | +2 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 10 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 9 | DLWLD |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 9 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 | WDWLD |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 | LWLWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 12:3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 4:3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 4:4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 5:10 | 5 |
Primera: Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | +9 | 31 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:16 | +8 | 29 | LDWWL |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | +10 | 28 | WWWDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23:16 | +7 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 24 | WLDWW |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22:16 | +6 | 23 | WDLDL |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26:21 | +5 | 22 | LWLLW |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:11 | +2 | 21 | WDWLD |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 20 | DLWLD |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16:21 | -5 | 20 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 18 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16:19 | -3 | 17 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14:20 | -6 | 17 | LWLWW |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12:23 | -11 | 10 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8:24 | -16 | 10 | LDDWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 23:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 24:16 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 26:16 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 23:16 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 23:22 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 22:16 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 26:21 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 13:11 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 20:18 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 16:21 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 17:21 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 16:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 14:20 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 17:22 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 12:23 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 8:24 | 10 |
Primera: Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 26:14 | +12 | 28 | WDLDL |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19:13 | +6 | 26 | LWLLW |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 18:10 | +8 | 22 | LDWWL |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17:9 | +8 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:14 | +4 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13:15 | -2 | 19 | LWLLD |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12:10 | +2 | 18 | DDWLL |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 18 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14:19 | -5 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15:17 | -2 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 13 | WWWDD |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:23 | -7 | 12 | WDWLD |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 10 | WDDDL |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 9 | LLDDW |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8:22 | -14 | 8 | WLDWW |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 13 | 22:8 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 13 | 26:14 | 28 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 13 | 19:13 | 26 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 13 | 18:10 | 22 |
| 5 | Penarol | 13 | 17:9 | 22 |
| 6 | Racing Montevideo | 13 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Progreso | 13 | 13:15 | 19 |
| 8 | Juventud | 13 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | Cerro | 13 | 15:19 | 18 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 13 | 14:19 | 16 |
| 11 | Boston River | 13 | 15:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 13 | 15:20 | 13 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 13 | 16:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Danubio | 13 | 7:15 | 10 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 13 | 10:17 | 9 |
| 16 | Central Espanol | 13 | 8:22 | 8 |
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About the Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo forecast
The forecasts for this Primera División - Apertura match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Defensor Sporting and Liverpool Montevideo in the Primera División - Apertura table
In the Primera División - Apertura table, Liverpool Montevideo are 6th and Defensor Sporting 11th, 20 points apart. League goal record so far: Defensor Sporting 35-43, Liverpool Montevideo 47-31. The full standings are on the Primera División - Apertura Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Liverpool Montevideo have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.