St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Prediction
USA · Regular Season - 26
CITYPARK, St. Louis· L. Szpala 20/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.17SignalSOLIDModel59%RiskMediumGap-7.0%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.64SignalGOODModel67%RiskMediumGap+4.3%
St. Louis City Rest
2 days
Toronto FC Rest
7 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
160%1.62
X21%4.26
219%4.78
Double Chance
1X81%1.17
X240%2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes63%1.50
No37%2.48
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.45 + 1.05 = 3.50
Over 1.589%1.11
Over 2.573%1.43
Over 3.550%2.11
Under 1.511%6.00
Under 2.527%2.79
Under 3.550%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 4.1 = 10.1
Over 8.567%1.67
Over 9.555%2.01
Over 10.539%2.63
Under 8.533%2.09
Under 9.545%1.70
Under 10.561%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2.2 = 3.8
Over 3.553%1.62
Over 4.533%2.19
Under 3.547%2.20
Under 4.567%1.64
Match Events
23'W. Zimmerman
28'C. Wallem
41'C. HolseAssist: A. Matan
46'S. Jeong INS. Becher out
54'T. TotlandAssist: A. Matan
57'W. Zimmerman INN. Gomis out
63'D. Etienne INZ. Monlouis out
63'N. Dorsch INJ. Osorio out
63'M. Cimermancic INT. Corbeanu out
68'S. BecherAssist: C. Wallem
73'F. Fall
74'A. Coello
75'J. Sargent INL. Morgan out
78'C. Wallem IND. Polvara out
79'A. Matan IND. Edelman out
85'Rafael Navarro IND. Downs out
90'Goal Disallowed - video reviewD. Downs
90+2'C. Holse INT. Ostrak out
90+7'T. CorbeanuAssist: A. Coello
Lineups
St. Louis CityToronto FC
4-2-3-1Coach: Robin Fraser
1R. BürkiRoman Bürki
99J. OrozcoJaziel Orozco
32T. BaumgartlTimo Baumgartl
27F. FallFallou Fall
6C. WallemConrad Wallem
8C. DurkinChristopher Durkin
23A. MățanAlexandru Mățan
14T. TotlandTomas Totland
77J. Sang-binJeong Sang-bin
9R. NavarroRafael Navarro
19C. HolseCarlo Holse
1L. GavranLuka Gavran
22R. LaryeaRichie Laryea
25W. ZimmermanWalker Zimmerman
13B. KuscevicBenjamin Kuscevic
3M. PereiraMatheus Pereira
14A. CoelloAlonso Coello
6N. DorschNiklas Dorsch
11D. EtienneDerrick Etienne
71M. CimermancicMarkus Cimermancic
20D. SallóiDániel Sallói
9J. SargentJosh SargentSt. Louis City Substitutes
11Simon BecherF
24Daniel EdelmanM
21Dante PolvaraM
42Damion DownsF
39Benjamin LundtG
5Lukas MacNaughtonD
59Mykhi JoynerM
7Tomáš OstrákM
20Rafael SantosD
Toronto FC Substitutes
15Nickseon GomisD
21Jonathan OsorioM
7Theo CorbeanuF
12Zane MonlouisD
90Lewis MorganF
23William YarbroughG
38Jackson GilmanD
19Kobe FranklinD
17Emilio AristizábalF
Match Stats
St. Louis CityToronto FC 62%Ball Possession38%
8Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots9
8Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal2
14Shots Inside Box4
3Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots6
14Fouls8
1Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves5
454Total Passes277
385Passes Accurate215
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Team Comparison
St. Louis CityToronto FC1723Elo Rating 1546
3.03Attack 1.68
1.56Defense 0.88
66%Hit Rate 37%
10.1Shots per Game 14.9
5.1Shots on Target 5.7
3.3Corners per Game 4.1
1.7Cards per Game 1.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+178 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.5 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
St. Louis City- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.9 vs 1.1 in second half)
Toronto FC- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Based on 1 historical meeting
St. Louis City 100%Draw 0%0% Toronto FC
1Avg Goals
0%BTTS Rate
0%Over 2.5
Recent Form
St. Louis City3W2D0L
17/09/2026
Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City
13/09/2026Colorado RapidsSt. Louis City03
WSt. Louis City
Minnesota United FC42
W10/09/2026
Portland TimbersSt. Louis City22
D06/09/2026
Vancouver WhitecapsSt. Louis City
31/08/2026Vancouver WhitecapsSt. Louis City13
WSt. Louis City
FC Dallas33
DReferee Profile
L. Szpala · 79 matches analysed
4.4Avg Yellows
4.6Avg Cards
23.5Avg Fouls
Stricter than 56% of referees analysed
League Table
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 56:23 | +33 | 49 | WLWLW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 34:30 | +4 | 44 | DLWDD |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 45:36 | +9 | 44 | WWDWD |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 49:42 | +7 | 44 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46:38 | +8 | 42 | DWWDD |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | +14 | 41 | DLWDD |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36:35 | +1 | 36 | DWDLW |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 | WDLWL |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 47:48 | -1 | 32 | LLDWL |
| 10 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42:42 | 0 | 30 | LLLWW |
| 11 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 32:44 | -12 | 30 | DWDDW |
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 37:42 | -5 | 29 | LLLDL |
| 13 |  Seattle Sounders | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 28:33 | -5 | 29 | DDDDD |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 39:46 | -7 | 29 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 29:63 | -34 | 18 | LWLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56:23 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47:48 | 32 |
| 10 | San Diego | 25 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 11 | Austin | 26 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 25 | 37:42 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 24 | 28:33 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 26 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29:63 | 18 |
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 53:21 | +32 | 57 | WDLDW |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 45:33 | +12 | 46 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61:46 | +15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 4 |  Charlotte | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 47:37 | +10 | 43 | WDWDW |
| 5 |  Chicago Fire | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 45:38 | +7 | 39 | LLDDD |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Union | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 50:42 | +8 | 36 | WWWWW |
| 7 |  Orlando City SC | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 46:60 | -14 | 34 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  New York Red Bulls | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:48 | -14 | 33 | WWLDL |
| 9 |  FC Cincinnati | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 54:61 | -7 | 33 | DDLLD |
| 10 |  New York City FC | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 39:34 | +5 | 32 | LWLDD |
| 11 |  DC United | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 31:39 | -8 | 29 | LDWDL |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 26 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 39:49 | -10 | 29 | LLWDD |
| 13 |  Columbus Crew | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 37:42 | -5 | 26 | WLLWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 30:43 | -13 | 26 | WDLDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 31:53 | -22 | 21 | LLLLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 26 | 53:21 | 57 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 26 | 45:33 | 46 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 25 | 61:46 | 45 |
| 4 | Charlotte | 26 | 47:37 | 43 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 25 | 45:38 | 39 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 26 | 50:42 | 36 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 26 | 46:60 | 34 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 26 | 34:48 | 33 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 25 | 54:61 | 33 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 26 | 39:34 | 32 |
| 11 | DC United | 25 | 31:39 | 29 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 26 | 39:49 | 29 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 26 | 37:42 | 26 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 26 | 30:43 | 26 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 26 | 31:53 | 21 |
Promotion
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Prediction
Our AI model has analysed this Major League Soccer fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About Major League Soccer
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Key Factors for This Match
St. Louis City have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. St. Louis City and Toronto FC have met 1 times recently, averaging 1 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.