Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction

BMO Field, Toronto· M. Badawi 30/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
71%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.45
SignalNEUTRALModel42%RiskMediumGap+1.8%
Value Analysis
65%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.59
SignalGOODModel40%RiskMediumGap+6.7%
Toronto FC Rest
7 days
New York City FC Rest
6 days

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.46
X
26%3.60
2
30%2.65
Double Chance
1X
70%1.45
X2
56%1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.50
No
37%2.40
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 1.41 = 2.77
Over 1.5
77%1.19
Over 2.5
59%1.62
Over 3.5
35%2.55
Under 1.5
23%4.50
Under 2.5
41%2.25
Under 3.5
65%1.50
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.5 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.45
Over 9.5
49%1.76
Over 10.5
35%2.26
Under 8.5
40%2.51
Under 9.5
51%1.97
Under 10.5
65%1.59
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.5
52%1.43
Over 4.5
36%1.88
Under 3.5
48%2.62
Under 4.5
64%1.83

Match Events

18'B. Kuscevic
29'N. MercauAssist: A. Ojeda
40'N. Mercau
54'A. Perea
55'D. Etienne IND. Salloi out
55'K. Franklin INMatheus Pereira out
59'D. Mihailovic
63'B. Traore INRaul Gustavo out
63'N. Cavallo INK. O'Toole out
64'Matheus Pereira
70'D. SalloiAssist: T. Corbeanu
75'Thiago Martins INM. Jones out
77'K. Parks INJ. Shore out
90+1'J. Shore

Lineups

Toronto FC
Coach: Robin Fraser
New York City FC
Coach: Pascal Jansen

Toronto FC Starting XI

1Luka GavranG
19Kobe FranklinD
25Walker ZimmermanD
13Benjamin KuscevicD
22Richie LaryeaD
71Markus CimermancicM
14Alonso CoelloM
7Theo CorbeanuM
10Đorđe MihailovićM
11Derrick EtienneM
9Josh SargentF

New York City FC Starting XI

49Matthew FreeseG
35Mitja IleničD
13Thiago MartinsD
6James SandsD
2Nico CavalloD
55Keaton ParksM
7Nicolás FernándezM
8Andrés PereaM
26Agustin OjedaF
20Luighi HanriF
9Bénie TraoréF

Toronto FC Substitutes

20Dániel SallóiF
3Matheus PereiraD
23William YarbroughG
38Jackson GilmanD
15Nickseon GomisD
12Zane MonlouisD
44Raheem EdwardsD
17Emilio AristizábalF
99Jules-Anthony VilsaintF

New York City FC Substitutes

34Raul GustavoD
22Kevin O'TooleD
88Malachi JonesF
32Jonathan ShoreM
30Tomás RomeroG
18Gregory RanjitsinghG
24Tayvon GrayD
23Max MurrayD
27Cooper FlaxM

Match Stats

Toronto FCNew York City FC
41%Ball Possession59%
7Corner Kicks2
3Yellow Cards3
14Total Shots6
6Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal3
8Shots Inside Box5
6Shots Outside Box1
3Blocked Shots1
10Fouls13
2Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves5
363Total Passes552
311Passes Accurate491
86%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

Toronto FCToronto FC
New York City FCNew York City FC
1546Elo Rating 1592
1.68Attack 0.79
0.88Defense 2.20
37%Hit Rate 23%
14.9Shots per Game 10.8
5.7Shots on Target 3.4
4.1Corners per Game 5.0
1.8Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend81% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Toronto FCToronto FC
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
New York City FCNew York City FC
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Based on 5 historical meetings

Toronto FC 0%Draw 27%73% New York City FC
2.9Avg Goals
81%BTTS Rate
54%Over 2.5

Referee Profile

M. Badawi · 32 matches analysed

4.3Avg Yellows
4.4Avg Cards
23.5Avg Fouls
Stricter than 44% of referees analysed

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Nashville SCNashville SC26176353:21+3257WDLDW
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution26144845:33+1246WWWLW
3Inter MiamiInter Miami25129461:46+1545DDDWL
4CharlotteCharlotte26127747:37+1043WDWDW
5Chicago FireChicago Fire25116845:38+739LLDDD
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union261061050:42+836WWWWW
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC261041246:60-1434LWWWD
8New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls26961134:48-1433WWLDL
9FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati2589854:61-733DDLLD
10New York City FCNew York City FC26881039:34+532LWLDD
11DC UnitedDC United25611831:39-829LDWDL
12Toronto FCToronto FC26611939:49-1029LLWDD
13Columbus CrewColumbus Crew26751437:42-526WLLWL
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC26751430:43-1326WDLDL
15CF MontrealCF Montreal26561531:53-2221LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Nashville SCNashville SC2653:2157
2New England RevolutionNew England Revolution2645:3346
3Inter MiamiInter Miami2561:4645
4CharlotteCharlotte2647:3743
5Chicago FireChicago Fire2545:3839
6Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union2650:4236
7Orlando City SCOrlando City SC2646:6034
8New York Red BullsNew York Red Bulls2634:4833
9FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati2554:6133
10New York City FCNew York City FC2639:3432
11DC UnitedDC United2531:3929
12Toronto FCToronto FC2639:4929
13Columbus CrewColumbus Crew2637:4226
14Atlanta United FCAtlanta United FC2630:4326
15CF MontrealCF Montreal2631:5321
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Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction

Our AI model has analysed this Major League Soccer fixture using team Elo ratings, recent form, projected goals and head-to-head history. The forecasts cover six independent markets - each probability is a separate model calculation, not derived from the match winner result.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive or open market; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

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Key Factors for This Match

Toronto FC and New York City FC have met 5 times recently, averaging 2.9 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.